319  
FXUS62 KMHX 041108  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
708 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS  
MORNING, STALLING SOUTH OF THE COAST BY TONIGHT. THERE IS A  
CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS STALLED BOUNDARY  
LATER THIS WEEKEND, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED RAIN  
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 3 AM FRI...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- LOW CHANCE (20%) OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
PRIMARILY FOCUSED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264.  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD  
ACROSS EASTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WHILE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED  
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. A  
SECONDARY UPPER LOW SITES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST, ASSOCIATED  
WITH A WEAK WAVE OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF  
FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY  
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA WHILE SURFACE TROUGH  
LINGERS OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.  
 
WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW WILL NUDGE THE BACKDOOR  
FRONT INTO ENC THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE  
COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. QUITE DRY AIR FOR JULY WILL FILTER  
IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS PWATS FALL BELOW AN INCH, BUT ALONG  
THE SOUTHERN COAST PWATS WILL REMAIN AT 1.5-1.75". THE DRY AIR  
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD INHIBIT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,  
BUT THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE DECAYING FRONT AND  
DIURNAL SEA/SOUND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAY PROMOTE A STRAY SHOWER  
OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 264  
CORRIDOR. SHEAR IS EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY  
SEVERE RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  
 
HIGHS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY, IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW  
90S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 3 AM FRI...ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES WITH  
LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT, GIVING WAY TO MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO  
START. MORE HIGH CIRRUS ENCROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AS WEAK  
OFFSHORE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY  
ORGANIZE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER, AS WELL AS A PREVAILING LIGHT  
EASTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT, SHOULD PRECLUDE A FOG RISK. LOWS  
VARIABLE, FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER  
60S INLAND WHERE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS  
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH AT  
LEAST MID-WEEK DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW  
 
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BUSY ONE WITH UNSETTLED  
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO POTENTIAL  
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE FL/GA COAST.  
 
ALOFT, BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
MIDWEST. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE OVER  
THE EASTERN GULF, FL, AND THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT  
THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA EARLIER  
THIS WEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FL/GA COAST  
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LINGER  
IN THE AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFECYCLE, THE  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT FURTHER  
ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR  
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THIS WEEKEND. NHC'S  
FORECAST INDICATES A 50% CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48  
HOURS AND A 60% CHANCE IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SLOW MOVING  
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MULTIPLE  
DAYS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW  
ULTIMATELY TRACKS, THERE COULD BE A SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT  
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES OF OUR CWA ON SATURDAY  
WITH THE LATTER HAVING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR GREATER RAINFALL.  
THIS WILL BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE  
MAIN HAZARD OF CONCERN FOR ENC WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HAS  
THE ENTIRE CWA OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...  
AS OF 710 AM FRI...PATCHY MVFR FOG PREVAILS AT MOST TERMINALS  
THIS HOUR AFTER BOUNCING BETWEEN MVFR AND LIFR FOR MUCH OF THE  
MORNING. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING GOOD HEADWAY ACROSS ENC  
AS WINDS GRADUALLY TURN NORTH, AND LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND THE FRONT. THIS COULD BRING  
BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, WITH BEST CHANCES PRIMARILY  
OAJ AND EWN AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR ISO. ADDED IN PROB30S FOR  
THESE TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z WITH STEADILY INCREASING HIGH  
CLOUDS AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF  
FLORIDA DRIFTS NORTHWARD. CLOUDS, IN COMBINATION WITH A LIGHT  
BUT STEADY EASTERLY GRADIENT WIND, WILL KEEP FOG AT BAY TOMORROW  
MORNING.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 1:45 AM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAINFALL PROBABLE FROM A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 3 AM FRI...REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRIMARILY WESTERLY  
WINDS OF AROUND 5 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FEET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT, EXPECTED TO CROSS AREA WATERS FROM THE  
NORTH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS  
QUICKLY VEER NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY,  
REACHING UP TO 10-15 KT AT THEIR PEAK, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT  
POSSIBLE. AT THE SAME TIME, EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FURTHER  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS ONSLOW BAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF  
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTHWARD.  
 
FOR NOW, NO HEADLINES ARE NEEDED FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SEAS  
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER, REACHING 3-4  
FEET AND UP TO 5 FEET ACROSS OUTER PORTIONS OF ONSLOW BAY BY SAT  
AM.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE  
LATE SATURDAY. 15 KT EASTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL VEER TO  
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL  
CONTINUE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
DURING THIS PERIOD, A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST,  
AND COULD ACQUIRE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IF  
THIS OCCURS AND IT WERE TO STRENGTHEN, STRONGER WINDS TO  
GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MARINE  
WATERS AS WELL AS HIGHER SEAS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT,  
HAZARDOUS SEAS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO THE LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH, AND  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...MS  
SHORT TERM...MS  
LONG TERM...OJC  
AVIATION...MS/OJC  
MARINE...MS/OJC  
 
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