351  
FXUS62 KMHX 042301  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK, BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL  
STALL SOUTH OF THE COAST TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ALONG  
THIS BOUNDARY MAY ACQUIRE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL  
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF  
DEVELOPMENT, THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASED RAIN  
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,  
PRIMARILY ALONG A LINE FROM AURORA TO NEW BERN TO  
JACKSONVILLE.  
 
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS ENC  
AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOUTH OF THE COAST TONIGHT. DRIER AIR  
IS FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, WITH PWATS FORECAST TO  
FALL BELOW AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,  
BUT ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST PWATS WILL REMAIN AT 1.5-1.75".  
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY LED TO THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2 PM  
THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK, SO NO RISK OF  
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH  
AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HIGH CIRRUS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COASTLINE IS  
EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA, INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE  
NIGHT. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH LIGHT EASTERLY  
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. LOWS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 70 INLAND WITH MID-70S ALONG THE  
BEACHES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...  
 
- DEVELOPING WEAK LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BRING BRIEF  
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF ENC TOMORROW, WITH  
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTLINE.  
 
WEAK LOW CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COASTLINE  
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND GRADUALLY MOVE  
NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE COMING DAY. NHC'S FORECAST  
INDICATES A 70% CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE  
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY  
FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WHILE GREATER  
CHANCES OF RAINFALL DO NOT PICK UP UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT, CURRENT  
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE TO TWO BANDS OF  
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/THE OUTER EDGES  
OF THE LOW PUSHING ONSHORE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THE BEST  
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE CURRENTLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS SOUTH OF  
HATTERAS AND ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST. SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN  
RATHER WEAK, SO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THREAT.  
STORMS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS OF  
1.75-2.00", AND WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE FAR SOUTHERN COASTLINE IN  
A MARGINAL ERO FOR TOMORROW.  
 
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, CLOUD COVER IS  
EXPECTED TO BE MORE EXPANSIVE TOMORROW. THIS IS FORECAST TO KEEP  
HIGHS A BIT COOLER, WITH MID-80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER-80S  
INLAND.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1 AM FRIDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS  
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH AT  
LEAST MID-WEEK DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF THE LOW  
 
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BUSY ONE WITH UNSETTLED  
CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO POTENTIAL  
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE FL/GA COAST.  
 
ALOFT, BROAD UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
MIDWEST. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE OVER  
THE EASTERN GULF, FL, AND THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AT  
THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE STALLED  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN TO THE AREA EARLIER  
THIS WEEK. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FL/GA COAST  
AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND LINGER  
IN THE AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT ITS LIFECYCLE, THE  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT FURTHER  
ORGANIZATION AND POTENTIALLY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR  
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR THIS WEEKEND. NHC'S  
FORECAST INDICATES A 70% CHANCE OF FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48  
HOURS AS WELL AS IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF  
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW  
ULTIMATELY TRACKS, THERE COULD BE A SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT  
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES OF OUR CWA ON SATURDAY  
WITH THE LATTER HAVING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR GREATER RAINFALL.  
THIS WILL BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE  
MAIN HAZARD OF CONCERN FOR ENC WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HAS  
THE ENTIRE CWA OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 7 PM FRIDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY  
MOVING OUT OF ENC THIS EVENING AND THE ENTIRE AREA IS FORECAST  
TO BE PRECIP FREE AFTER ABOUT 00Z. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH  
AT LEAST TONIGHT, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE FROM  
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TD3 CURRENTLY  
OFF THE FL/GA COAST DRIFTS NORTHWARD. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD  
COVER, EXPECTING THE ENTIRE AREA TO REMAIN FOG FREE TONIGHT.  
 
AS WE GET INTO SAT, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL  
FOR 1-2 ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST WILL BE  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING COASTAL TROUGH WITH THE SECOND AND  
MORE LIKELY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING IN THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
AT BEST THROUGH THE DAY SAT, BUT GIVEN THE CONTINUED SIGNAL  
ACROSS THE HI-RES GUIDANCE HAVE NOW INCLUDED PROB30 GROUP FOR  
SHOWERS AT EWN/OAJ SAT MORNING AS ANYWHERE NEAR THE CRYSTAL  
COAST AND SOUTHERN OBX HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY.  
HAVE NOT INCLUDED SHOWER OR TSTM CHANCES AFTER 18Z BUT GIVEN THE  
CURRENT TRENDS WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF THIS IS ADDED IN FUTURE  
UPDATES. IN ADDITION TO THIS, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS  
BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARDS AND IMPACT EWN/OAJ AFTER ABOUT 18Z AS  
WELL.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 1:45 PM FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PERIODS OF SUB-VFR  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE  
TO HEAVY RAINFALL PROBABLE FROM A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 3 PM FRI...REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRIMARILY WESTERLY  
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. NE WINDS AROUND  
10-15 KT GRADUALLY VEER TO E TO SE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH  
SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT AS SWELLS FROM THE DEVELOPING LOW  
PRESSURE OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WATERS.  
 
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM  
OFF SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS.  
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR E TO SE WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT  
SATURDAY NIGHT VEERING TO THE S SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE SEAS  
BUILD TO 4-6 FT, THEN SW AROUND 10-20 KT TUESDAY WITH SEAS  
SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE  
ULTIMATE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST  
AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE MARINE CONDITIONS SO PLEASE FOLLOW THE  
FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT COULD CHANGE.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...ZC  
SHORT TERM...ZC  
LONG TERM...SK  
AVIATION...SK/RCF  
MARINE...SK  
 
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