631  
FXUS62 KMHX 052055  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
455 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE  
CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN  
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO, AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL  
DRIFTS TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF COAST  
UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE  
SURFACE, TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL (NAMED THIS MORNING) IS DRIFTING  
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ROUGHLY 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF  
CHARLESTON, SC.  
 
THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CHANTAL WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A BAND OF SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE  
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE  
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH ONSHORE AND THROUGH ENC TONIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A  
HATTERAS-TO-KINSTON LINE AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL  
COAST. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FORECASTS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS  
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH CAMS  
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SRH TO 100-200 M2/S2. COUPLED  
MLCAPE OF AROUND 500-1000 J/KG, THIS WILL YIELD THE RISK FOR  
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  
SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE IN A MARGINAL  
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, PWATS  
OF 2.00-2.25"+ WILL YIELD A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION TODAY.  
 
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, EXPANSIVE CLOUD  
COVER IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT,  
WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS, AND AN ISOLATED  
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
- CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ENC  
WHILE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE  
HIGHEST WIND IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS  
TIME, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR SOME  
LOCATIONS.  
 
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED  
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS CHANTAL AND  
ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS OF 2"+) CONTINUE TO  
LIFT NORTH AND WEST, WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR LANDFALL  
ALONG THE NORTHERN SC COAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON  
SUNDAY. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO TURN  
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH SUNDAY AND  
INTO MONDAY.  
 
LIKE TODAY, MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL  
RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND THE OUTER  
BANKS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED  
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF ENC, WITH WPC MAINTAINING  
A MARGINAL ERO FOR THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. STORM TOTAL  
RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1-3", BUT  
HREF LPMM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOCAL MAXIMA OF UP TO  
4".  
 
AFTER INCREASING TONIGHT, CAMS SHOW LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES  
BECOMING MARGINALLY LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANY TORNADO RISK DURING  
THE DAY TOMORROW AS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES.  
DESPITE THIS, CAM FORECASTS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF UP TO  
100 M2/S2 WILL REMAIN PRESENT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AMIDST  
MODEST INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO  
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN  
THE RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL TOMORROW. SPC CURRENTLY  
HAS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL  
(LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR SUNDAY.  
 
GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, HIGHS ARE  
FORECAST TO BE LOWER TOMORROW, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-80S.  
EASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY,  
BECOMING GUSTIER TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE CWA TOMORROW EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY  
AS IT PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENS. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY  
TO BE MORE ISOLATED SUNDAY EVENING, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
ELEVATED ABOVE 2", ALLOWING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MIXING SUBSIDES, WITH CAMS  
DEPICTING 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING TO 100-150 M2/S2. WITH MLCAPE OF  
500-1000 J/KG, THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL  
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY.  
 
WITH THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA,  
THE GREATEST WIND IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS  
TIME (SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING). WINDS WILL TURN  
SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF CHANTAL, INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH AS THE  
STORM PASSES. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE STORM (AND COASTAL MARINE  
AREAS) ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH. IN  
RESPONSE, SCA'S HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO NOW INCLUDE THE WATERS  
FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCAS FOR THE  
NORTHERN WATERS AND THE REMAINING INLAND RIVERS/SOUNDS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 400 PM SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS  
WEEK  
 
TS CHANTAL WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY AND  
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH PW VALUES  
AROUND 2" OR GREATER. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING  
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES,  
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  
AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK  
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A  
FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE  
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW  
90S INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105,  
OTHERWISE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES  
BELOW CLIMO.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT ALL  
TERMINALS AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY, WITH SOME SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOTED IN THE PGV VICINITY. EXPECTATION IS  
FOR THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE  
WEST OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MOST CURRENT GUIDANCE DEPICTS  
LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. GIVEN  
THAT CHANCES REMAIN NON-ZERO THOUGH, HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE TO  
HOLD PROB30 GROUPS THROUGH ~00Z FOR ALL TERMINALS. HIGH-RES  
GUIDANCE THEN CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL BANDS OF  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ONSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH  
MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO INCREASE FURTHER IN  
COVERAGE TOMORROW MORNING AS CHANTAL CONTINUES TO DRIFT  
NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD. DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH  
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH COULD BRING LOCALLY LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES  
AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...TS CHANTAL WILL LIFT INTO THE COASTAL  
PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS  
NORTHWARD BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING  
SUB-VFR FLIGHT CATS. A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
MOST MORNINGS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...  
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
- TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE  
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROX 185 MI SOUTH  
OF WILMINGTON, NC THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NNW  
TOWARD THE SC COAST, MAKING LANDFALL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND  
THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE WILE LIFTING ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL  
PLAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY SEEING E TO SE WINDS AROUND  
5-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 15-20 AND GUSTS UP TO 25  
KT ACROSS NORTHERN ONSLOW BAY. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO AROUND 3-6 FT  
TODAY AS WELL, HIGHEST ACROSS ONSLOW BAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED TONIGHT, THEN WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY AS CHANTAL PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS BRINGING S TO  
SE WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT AND GUST TO AROUND 30 KT, AND COULD  
SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO  
4-7 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY  
SUBSIDING LATE MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA NORTH TO OREGON  
INLET AND TO INCLUDE THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE AFTERNOON  
PACKAGE AND COULD SEE EXPANSION TO OTHER WATERS DEPENDING ON THE  
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF CHANTAL. AT THIS TIME THINKING  
IS THAT TS FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE  
OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS BUT AGAIN ANY UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING OR  
TRACK SHIFT COULD CHANGE THAT.  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING  
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH  
SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT CURRENTLY  
FORECAST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE IS  
SUGGESTING LOW END SCA COULD OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS.  
 
 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-  
199.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
AMZ154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ158.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...ZC  
SHORT TERM...ZC  
LONG TERM...SK  
AVIATION...SK/ZC  
MARINE...SK  
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