245  
FXUS62 KMHX 052314  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
714 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
NEWLY NAMED TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE  
CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN  
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO, AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL  
DRIFTS TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING, BUT DID ADD IN A  
HYDRO SECTION TO THE DISCUSSION AS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT ENC THROUGH MONDAY. SEE  
(HYDRO SECTION) FOR MORE INFO.  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF COAST  
UNDERNEATH RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE  
SURFACE, TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL (NAMED THIS MORNING) IS DRIFTING  
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ROUGHLY 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF  
CHARLESTON, SC.  
 
THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CHANTAL WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. A BAND OF SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE  
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE  
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO PUSH ONSHORE AND THROUGH ENC TONIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A  
HATTERAS-TO-KINSTON LINE AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL  
COAST. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE FORECASTS LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS  
TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH CAMS  
SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SRH TO 100-200 M2/S2. COUPLED  
MLCAPE OF AROUND 500-1000 J/KG, THIS WILL YIELD THE RISK FOR  
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  
SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN COASTLINE IN A MARGINAL  
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, PWATS  
OF 2.00-2.25"+ WILL YIELD A RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND  
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF THE REGION TODAY.  
 
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, EXPANSIVE CLOUD  
COVER IS FORECAST TO KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT,  
WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS, AND AN ISOLATED  
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
 
- CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS ENC  
WHILE PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE  
HIGHEST WIND IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS  
TIME, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH FOR SOME  
LOCATIONS.  
 
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...HEAVIEST RAINFALL OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED  
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS CHANTAL AND  
ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS OF 2"+) CONTINUE TO  
LIFT NORTH AND WEST, WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR LANDFALL  
ALONG THE NORTHERN SC COAST LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ON  
SUNDAY. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO TURN  
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH SUNDAY AND  
INTO MONDAY.  
 
LIKE TODAY, MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL  
RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST AND THE OUTER  
BANKS SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED  
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL OF ENC, WITH WPC MAINTAINING  
A MARGINAL ERO FOR THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. STORM TOTAL  
RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1-3", BUT  
HREF LPMM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LOCAL MAXIMA OF UP TO  
4".  
 
AFTER INCREASING TONIGHT, CAMS SHOW LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES  
BECOMING MARGINALLY LESS SUPPORTIVE OF ANY TORNADO RISK DURING  
THE DAY TOMORROW AS MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES.  
DESPITE THIS, CAM FORECASTS INDICATE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF UP TO  
100 M2/S2 WILL REMAIN PRESENT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AMIDST  
MODEST INSTABILITY OF 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO  
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN  
THE RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL TOMORROW. SPC CURRENTLY  
HAS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL  
(LEVEL 1/5) RISK FOR SUNDAY.  
 
GIVEN EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, HIGHS ARE  
FORECAST TO BE LOWER TOMORROW, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-80S.  
EASTERLY WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY,  
BECOMING GUSTIER TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
THE CENTER OF CHANTAL WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF  
THE CWA TOMORROW EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND INTO MONDAY  
AS IT PROGRESSIVELY WEAKENS. WHILE PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY  
TO BE MORE ISOLATED SUNDAY EVENING, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
ELEVATED ABOVE 2", ALLOWING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN  
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MIXING SUBSIDES, WITH CAMS  
DEPICTING 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING TO 100-150 M2/S2. WITH MLCAPE OF  
500-1000 J/KG, THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL  
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY.  
 
WITH THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA,  
THE GREATEST WIND IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS  
TIME (SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING). WINDS WILL TURN  
SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF CHANTAL, INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH AS THE  
STORM PASSES. LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE STORM (AND COASTAL MARINE  
AREAS) ARE LIKELY TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 MPH. IN  
RESPONSE, SCA'S HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO NOW INCLUDE THE WATERS  
FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO OREGON INLET AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCAS FOR THE  
NORTHERN WATERS AND THE REMAINING INLAND RIVERS/SOUNDS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
AS OF 400 PM SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS  
WEEK  
 
TS CHANTAL WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE NC COASTAL PLAIN MONDAY AND  
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY  
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH PW VALUES  
AROUND 2" OR GREATER. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS  
BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING  
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES,  
THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  
AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK  
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A  
FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE  
LONG TERM LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW  
90S INLAND FROM THE COAST AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105,  
OTHERWISE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES  
BELOW CLIMO.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 715 PM SATURDAY...TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST THIS EVENING  
WITH TS CHANTAL SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY  
MAKING ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ENC BY SUN EVENING.  
CURRENTLY HAVE VFR CEILINGS AND VIS ACROSS JUST ABOUT ALL OF  
ENC, THOUGH WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS  
MAKING THEIR WAY ONSHORE AS OF THIS UPDATE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
SUB-VFR (LIKELY MVFR) CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT THE CRYSTAL COAST  
AND EWN/OAJ TERMINALS. WHILE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE ENTIRE AREA  
BEING UNDER MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY, THIS HAS BEEN OVERLY  
AGGRESSIVE THE PAST DAY OR SO AND AS SUCH I HAVE PUSHED BACK THE  
START OF MORE PERMANENT MVFR CEILINGS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS  
UPDATE. THOUGH EVEN THIS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK SOME  
DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOWER CLOUDS FROM THE OUTER EDGES OF TS  
CHANTAL FINALLY ENTER INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY NOW EXPECT  
MVFR CEILINGS TO BUILD INTO ENC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN  
03-09Z TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SUN AFTERNOON.  
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED IN PERIODS OF  
CATEGORICAL SHOWERS, AS WELL AS TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS FOR  
TSTMS TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT TRENDS. AS WE GET INTO SUN  
AFTERNOON SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR VFR CEILINGS  
TO RETURN AFTER ABOUT 18Z OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
 
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 315 PM SATURDAY...TS CHANTAL WILL LIFT INTO THE COASTAL  
PLAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS  
NORTHWARD BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING  
SUB-VFR FLIGHT CATS. A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
MOST MORNINGS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...  
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...  
 
- TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WILL BRING HAZARDOUS MARINE  
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROX 185 MI SOUTH  
OF WILMINGTON, NC THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT NNW  
TOWARD THE SC COAST, MAKING LANDFALL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND  
THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE WILE LIFTING ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTAL  
PLAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CURRENTLY SEEING E TO SE WINDS AROUND  
5-15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS WITH 15-20 AND GUSTS UP TO 25  
KT ACROSS NORTHERN ONSLOW BAY. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO AROUND 3-6 FT  
TODAY AS WELL, HIGHEST ACROSS ONSLOW BAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED TONIGHT, THEN WILL DETERIORATE FURTHER SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY AS CHANTAL PASSES TO THE WEST OF THE WATERS BRINGING S TO  
SE WINDS AROUND 15-25 KT AND GUST TO AROUND 30 KT, AND COULD  
SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO  
4-7 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY  
SUBSIDING LATE MONDAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA NORTH TO OREGON  
INLET AND TO INCLUDE THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH THE AFTERNOON  
PACKAGE AND COULD SEE EXPANSION TO OTHER WATERS DEPENDING ON THE  
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF CHANTAL. AT THIS TIME THINKING  
IS THAT TS FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE WATERS OUTSIDE  
OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS BUT AGAIN ANY UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING OR  
TRACK SHIFT COULD CHANGE THAT.  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING  
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH  
SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT CURRENTLY  
FORECAST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE IS  
SUGGESTING LOW END SCA COULD OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS.  
 
 
   
HYDROLOGY  
 
AS OF 7 PM SATURDAY...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE  
ALREADY BROUGHT 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF ENC TODAY  
AS THE OUTER BANDS OF TS CHANTAL HAVE BEGUN TO TRACK ACROSS THE  
REGION. LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY  
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS TS  
CHANTAL MAKES IT CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO ENC ON SUN EVENING.  
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AND ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH  
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF ENC BRINGING AT LEAST A LOW END FLASH FLOODING  
THREAT WHICH WOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN OUR MORE URBAN AREAS AND  
ACROSS THE AREAS THAT SAW 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY. EXPECT  
THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT TO GRADUALLY LOWER ON MONDAY  
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LAST OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM  
CHANTAL MAKES ITS WAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM ENC.  
 
 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-  
199.  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY  
EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-203>205.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
AMZ135.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
AMZ152.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR  
AMZ154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RCF/ZC  
SHORT TERM...ZC  
LONG TERM...SK  
AVIATION...SK/RCF  
MARINE...SK  
HYDROLOGY...MHX  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab NC Page
Main Text Page