858  
FXUS62 KMHX 070021  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
821 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT  
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF  
MID LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF  
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM SUN...  
 
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY KEEPING PRECIP  
CHANCES TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FA WITH  
COASTAL COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE OBX, HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH PW VALUES  
CONTINUING TO BE GREATER THAN 2", STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL  
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BRINGING THE  
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING CELLS.  
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT BUT COULD SEE ROTATING  
CELLS OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WHAT WILL HAVE TO BE  
MONITORED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 345 PM SUN...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL  
BRING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING,  
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES.  
 
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WILL ACCELERATE NORTH OF NC ON MONDAY AS  
IT GET ABSORBED INTO LARGER SW FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST STATES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION FOR  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSER  
TO THE SHORTWAVE. PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2" WILL PERSIST ACROSS  
THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING A THREAT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WPC HAS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA  
IN A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WITH  
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 315 PM SUN...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS  
WEEK  
 
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY  
BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BRINGING  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS  
MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY,  
HOWEVER BULK SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER.  
 
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO  
LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE  
REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS  
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR  
PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO  
DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.  
 
THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE LONG TERM LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST AND  
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105, OTHERWISE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE  
NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...TD CHANTAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD  
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT, THEN ACCELERATE NORTH OF THE AREA  
MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN BANDS FROM  
CHANTAL HAVE DISSIPATED FOR NOW BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LCL'S  
REMAIN LOW AND EXPECT PRED MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT  
COULD SEE PERIODS OF CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. GUIDANCE IS  
SUGGESTING LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS  
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MVFR CIGS  
CLOSER TO THE COAST. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE  
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF  
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-25 KT  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.  
 
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 4 PM SUN...A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
MOST MORNINGS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...  
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 4 PM SUN...TD CHANTAL WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC  
TONIGHT, THEN ACCELERATE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. S TO SE  
WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT,  
THEN VEER TO SW ON MONDAY. SEAS WIL CONTINUE AROUND 5-8 FT SOUTH  
OF HATTERAS AND 4-6 FT NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN  
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT ON MONDAY. CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR ALL  
BUT THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE RIVERS BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT HERE BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN  
SCA AT THIS TIME.  
 
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 4 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING  
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH  
SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT CURRENTLY  
FORECAST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE IS  
SUGGESTING LOW END SCA COULD OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY  
EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR  
AMZ135-152-231.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-154-156.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ158.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...SK  
SHORT TERM...SK  
LONG TERM...CEB/ZC  
AVIATION...SK/OJC/ZC  
MARINE...SK/ZC  
 
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