858
FXUS62 KMHX 070021
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
821 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A SERIES OF
MID LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM SUN...
AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT, GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE FA WITH
COASTAL COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY THE OBX, HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WITH PW VALUES
CONTINUING TO BE GREATER THAN 2", STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BRINGING THE
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING CELLS.
THE TORNADO THREAT WILL WANE OVERNIGHT BUT COULD SEE ROTATING
CELLS OFFSHORE APPROACHING THE COASTLINE WHAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
AS OF 345 PM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WILL ACCELERATE NORTH OF NC ON MONDAY AS
IT GET ABSORBED INTO LARGER SW FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST STATES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE REGION FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS CLOSER
TO THE SHORTWAVE. PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2" WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION CONTINUING TO BRING A THREAT FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WPC HAS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA
IN A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS
WEEK
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BUT COULD SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BRINGING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY,
HOWEVER BULK SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE LONG TERM LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105, OTHERWISE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUNDAY...TD CHANTAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT, THEN ACCELERATE NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN BANDS FROM
CHANTAL HAVE DISSIPATED FOR NOW BUT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LCL'S
REMAIN LOW AND EXPECT PRED MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT
COULD SEE PERIODS OF CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH MVFR CIGS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-25 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOST MORNINGS.
MARINE
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...TD CHANTAL WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT, THEN ACCELERATE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. S TO SE
WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT,
THEN VEER TO SW ON MONDAY. SEAS WIL CONTINUE AROUND 5-8 FT SOUTH
OF HATTERAS AND 4-6 FT NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT ON MONDAY. CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR ALL
BUT THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE RIVERS BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT HERE BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
SCA AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH
SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT CURRENTLY
FORECAST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING LOW END SCA COULD OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
AMZ135-152-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-154-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CEB/ZC
AVIATION...SK/OJC/ZC
MARINE...SK/ZC
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