147
FXUS62 KMHX 070616
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
216 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF TD
CHANTAL
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NORTH OF THE RALEIGH METRO, AND WAS LIFTING NE TOWARDS
THE NC/VA STATE LINE. SE OF CHANTAL, AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH THROUGH THE
OBX EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MHX VWP AND RAP GUIDANCE SHOW A
RELATIVELY NARROW 30-35KT LLJ WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND THE MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF
THOSE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
RISK WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, THOUGH.
LATER TODAY, MODEST SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF CHANTAL, PLUS AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LEAD TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE THE SEABREEZE, WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE RISK OF DEEPER
CONVECTION, BUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND PWATS AROUND 2", A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
THE RISK OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE AS IS COMMON THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 PM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS
WEEK
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BUT COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY, HOWEVER BULK
SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS
WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE LONG TERM LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105, OTHERWISE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
- LOWER RISK OF TSRA ON MONDAY
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY (20-25KT)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE VA/NC STATE LINE, WILL LIFT NE INTO VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. AS
IT MOVES AWAY FROM ENC, AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DRYING AND MODEST
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA LOWER ON MONDAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I'VE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE TAFS FOR NOW. PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF LOW
CIGS PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA, KEEPING A RISK OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT PLAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. I
EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST A
MODEST RISK OF IFR CIGS, AND TRENDS IN OBS AND SATELLITE WILL
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MID
TO LATE MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE. SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA OR
TSRA THAT DEVELOPS TODAY. REGARDING WINDS THROUGH MONDAY, IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A RESIDUAL GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CHANTAL TO MAINTAIN A RISK OF GUSTY SW
WINDS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. LIGHTER WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOST MORNINGS.
MARINE
AS OF 4 PM SATURDAY...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...TD CHANTAL WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC
TONIGHT, THEN ACCELERATE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. S TO SE
WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT,
THEN VEER TO SW ON MONDAY. SEAS WIL CONTINUE AROUND 5-8 FT SOUTH
OF HATTERAS AND 4-6 FT NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT ON MONDAY. CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR ALL
BUT THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND THE RIVERS BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT HERE BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN
SCA AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH
SW WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FT CURRENTLY
FORECAST DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING LOW END SCA COULD OCCUR AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ135-150-
152-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB
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