878  
FXUS62 KMHX 070849  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
449 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS  
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF TD  
CHANTAL  
 
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS  
LOCATED NORTH OF THE RALEIGH METRO, AND WAS LIFTING NE TOWARDS  
THE NC/VA STATE LINE. SE OF CHANTAL, AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH THROUGH THE  
OBX EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MHX VWP AND RAP GUIDANCE SHOW A  
RELATIVELY NARROW 30-35KT LLJ WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS  
MORNING, AND THE MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF  
THOSE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST  
RISK WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, THOUGH.  
 
LATER TODAY, MODEST SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF CHANTAL, PLUS AN  
AREA OF MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LEAD TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE THE SEABREEZE, WITH  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ABOVE-  
MENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE RISK OF DEEPER  
CONVECTION, BUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND PWATS AROUND 2", A  
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS  
WELL.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...  
 
THE RISK OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE AS IS COMMON THIS  
TIME OF YEAR, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0430 MONDAY...  
 
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BUT COULD SEE  
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS WERN PORTIONS  
OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF  
2-3KJ/KG MLCAPE, HOWEVER BULK SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. A SIMILAR  
SET UP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MEANS A SIMILAR THREAT OF STRONG  
TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT SHEAR WILL  
BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND.  
 
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID  
TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS  
THE REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE  
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND  
SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS  
TO DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND  
GUSTS.  
 
WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, THE  
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE LONG TERM LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  
(WITH TUESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST) WITH MAXTS IN THE LOW 90S  
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND  
100-105. MONITOR THE FORECAST, AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT  
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A  
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...  
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING  
 
- LOWER RISK OF TSRA ON MONDAY  
 
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY (20-25KT)  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF  
THE VA/NC STATE LINE, WILL LIFT NE INTO VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. AS  
IT MOVES AWAY FROM ENC, AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DRYING AND MODEST  
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA LOWER ON MONDAY  
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I'VE  
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE TAFS FOR NOW. PRIOR TO THE  
DRIER AIR MOVING IN, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF LOW  
CIGS PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA, KEEPING A RISK OF MVFR/IFR  
CONDITIONS AT PLAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. I  
EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST A  
MODEST RISK OF IFR CIGS, AND TRENDS IN OBS AND SATELLITE WILL  
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MID  
TO LATE MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
AREAWIDE. SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA OR  
TSRA THAT DEVELOPS TODAY. REGARDING WINDS THROUGH MONDAY, IT  
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A RESIDUAL GRADIENT ON THE  
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CHANTAL TO MAINTAIN A RISK OF GUSTY SW  
WINDS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. LIGHTER WINDS  
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING.  
 
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 MONDAY...A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
MOST MORNINGS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 0430 MONDAY...CHANTAL, OR WHAT'S LEFT OF IT, WILL LIFT  
NNEWARD TOWARD DELMARVA MONDAY. SWERLY WINDS 15-20G25-30KT  
CONTINUE TODAY, STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN TIGHTEST THERMAL  
GRADIENT SETS UP. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM 4-6 TO 3-5 FT  
THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUE WITH SCAS FOR ALL BUT THE ALBEMARLE  
SOUND AND THE RIVERS BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25  
KT HERE BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SCA AT THIS TIME.  
BEGIN TO STEP DOWN SCAS FROM S TO N AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AS  
WINDS EASE SOME TO 10-20KT. OFFSHORE SHOWER POSSIBILITY WANES  
THROUGH THE MORNING. SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR  
NEARSHORE AND INSIDE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 4 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE  
WERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS  
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH SW  
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT, HIGHEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
WITH THERMAL GRADIENT PEAKING. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4 FT  
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD, HOWEVER THE DOMINANT PERIOD THROUGH  
AT LEAST MIDWEEK WILL BE ON THE SHORTER WIND WAVE SIDE, 5-6SEC.  
SO, EXPECT BUMPY 3-4FT WIND WAVES OUT OF THE S/SW ON TOP OF  
1-2FT LONG PERIOD SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 13-15SEC OUT OF THE  
EAST.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ135-150-  
152-231.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ158.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RM  
SHORT TERM...RM  
LONG TERM...CEB  
AVIATION...RM/CEB  
MARINE...CEB  
 
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