878
FXUS62 KMHX 070849
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
449 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF TD
CHANTAL
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS
LOCATED NORTH OF THE RALEIGH METRO, AND WAS LIFTING NE TOWARDS
THE NC/VA STATE LINE. SE OF CHANTAL, AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH THROUGH THE
OBX EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MHX VWP AND RAP GUIDANCE SHOW A
RELATIVELY NARROW 30-35KT LLJ WILL BE OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND THE MORNING CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO MIX SOME OF
THOSE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
RISK WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, THOUGH.
LATER TODAY, MODEST SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF CHANTAL, PLUS AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD LEAD TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE THE SEABREEZE, WITH
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE RISK OF DEEPER
CONVECTION, BUT WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND PWATS AROUND 2", A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
THE RISK OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE AS IS COMMON THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 0430 MONDAY...
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BUT COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS WERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
2-3KJ/KG MLCAPE, HOWEVER BULK SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. A SIMILAR
SET UP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MEANS A SIMILAR THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID
TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS
TO DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE LONG TERM LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
(WITH TUESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST) WITH MAXTS IN THE LOW 90S
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100-105. MONITOR THE FORECAST, AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING
- LOWER RISK OF TSRA ON MONDAY
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY (20-25KT)
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL, CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE VA/NC STATE LINE, WILL LIFT NE INTO VIRGINIA ON MONDAY. AS
IT MOVES AWAY FROM ENC, AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DRYING AND MODEST
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA LOWER ON MONDAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I'VE
REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE TAFS FOR NOW. PRIOR TO THE
DRIER AIR MOVING IN, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF LOW
CIGS PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA, KEEPING A RISK OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT PLAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING. I
EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST A
MODEST RISK OF IFR CIGS, AND TRENDS IN OBS AND SATELLITE WILL
BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MID
TO LATE MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE. SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA OR
TSRA THAT DEVELOPS TODAY. REGARDING WINDS THROUGH MONDAY, IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A RESIDUAL GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CHANTAL TO MAINTAIN A RISK OF GUSTY SW
WINDS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON MONDAY. LIGHTER WINDS
ARE THEN EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0430 MONDAY...A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOST MORNINGS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0430 MONDAY...CHANTAL, OR WHAT'S LEFT OF IT, WILL LIFT
NNEWARD TOWARD DELMARVA MONDAY. SWERLY WINDS 15-20G25-30KT
CONTINUE TODAY, STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN TIGHTEST THERMAL
GRADIENT SETS UP. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM 4-6 TO 3-5 FT
THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUE WITH SCAS FOR ALL BUT THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND THE RIVERS BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KT HERE BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
BEGIN TO STEP DOWN SCAS FROM S TO N AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AS
WINDS EASE SOME TO 10-20KT. OFFSHORE SHOWER POSSIBILITY WANES
THROUGH THE MORNING. SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
NEARSHORE AND INSIDE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH SW
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT, HIGHEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THERMAL GRADIENT PEAKING. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4 FT
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD, HOWEVER THE DOMINANT PERIOD THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK WILL BE ON THE SHORTER WIND WAVE SIDE, 5-6SEC.
SO, EXPECT BUMPY 3-4FT WIND WAVES OUT OF THE S/SW ON TOP OF
1-2FT LONG PERIOD SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 13-15SEC OUT OF THE
EAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ135-150-
152-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB
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