623
FXUS62 KMHX 071147
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
747 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS TO RETURN IN THE WAKE OF TD
CHANTAL
AS OF THIS MORNING, TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED
ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER NW OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, AND WAS
LIFTING NE TOWARDS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA. MODEST SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF CHANTAL, PLUS AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL DRYING SHOULD
LEAD TO A LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
LOOKS TO BE THE SEABREEZE, WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
TEND TO LIMIT THE RISK OF DEEPER CONVECTION, AND IT APPEARS THE
RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM MONDAY...
THE RISK OF CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE AS IS COMMON THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 0430 MONDAY...
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BUT COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS WERN PORTIONS
OF THE FA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
2-3KJ/KG MLCAPE, HOWEVER BULK SHEAR WILL BE MEAGER. A SIMILAR
SET UP FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MEANS A SIMILAR THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT SHEAR WILL
BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID
TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS
TO DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, THE
WARMEST TEMPS OF THE LONG TERM LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
(WITH TUESDAY BEING THE HOTTEST) WITH MAXTS IN THE LOW 90S
INLAND FROM THE COAST AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100-105. MONITOR THE FORECAST, AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THIS MORNING
- LOWER RISK OF TSRA TODAY
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (20-25KT) THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL, CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE VA/NC
STATE LINE NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, WILL LIFT NE INTO THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA TODAY. AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM ENC, AN AREA OF
MID-LEVEL DRYING AND MODEST SUBSIDENCE SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF
SHRA AND TSRA LOWER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
LIGHT OF THIS, I'VE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PRIOR TO THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN, THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE BANDS OF LOW CIGS PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA, KEEPING A
RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT PLAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. BY
LATE MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHRA OR TSRA THAT
DEVELOPS TODAY. REGARDING WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A RESIDUAL GRADIENT ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CHANTAL TO MAINTAIN A RISK OF GUSTY SW
WINDS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 0430 MONDAY...A SERIES OF MID- LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOST MORNINGS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0430 MONDAY...CHANTAL, OR WHAT'S LEFT OF IT, WILL LIFT
NNEWARD TOWARD DELMARVA MONDAY. SWERLY WINDS 15-20G25-30KT
CONTINUE TODAY, STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON WHEN TIGHTEST THERMAL
GRADIENT SETS UP. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM 4-6 TO 3-5 FT
THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUE WITH SCAS FOR ALL BUT THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND THE RIVERS BUT COULD SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KT HERE BUT NOT FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN SCA AT THIS TIME.
BEGIN TO STEP DOWN SCAS FROM S TO N AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AS
WINDS EASE SOME TO 10-20KT. OFFSHORE SHOWER POSSIBILITY WANES
THROUGH THE MORNING. SEABREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE FOR
NEARSHORE AND INSIDE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH SW
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT, HIGHEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH THERMAL GRADIENT PEAKING. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4 FT
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD, HOWEVER THE DOMINANT PERIOD THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK WILL BE ON THE SHORTER WIND WAVE SIDE, 5-6SEC.
SO, EXPECT BUMPY 3-4FT WIND WAVES OUT OF THE S/SW ON TOP OF
1-2FT LONG PERIOD SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 13-15SEC OUT OF THE
EAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-196-
199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ135-150-
152-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB
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