520
FXUS62 KMHX 071953
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
353 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL IS PUSHING ACROSS
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RIDGING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. BROAD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAS PREVAILED ACROSS ENC SO
FAR THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING SHOWERS RATHER ISOLATED AND SHORT-
LIVED DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
CONTINUES TO BE NORTH OF THE PAMLICO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF SFC
HEATING AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. WARM AND MUGGY TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES PEAKING UP TO 106 DEGREES
- A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE COAST TUESDAY WHILE A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH THERMAL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AS WELL AS THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH WHICH WILL PROPAGATE
TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HEATING WILL
BRING MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE PEAKING AROUND 2500-3000
J/KG AND COULD SEE SOME MORE ROBUST STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS GUSTS DESPITE MEAGER SHEAR OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SPC HAS
THE WESTERN COASTAL PLAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER, IN THE MID 90S INLAND AND UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S,
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 103-106 DEGREES
AND HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL ZONES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A SIMILAR SET UP TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH A SIMILAR THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS EXISTS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. ~2000 J/KG MLCAPE
COUPLED WITH MEAGER BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT. SPC HAS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A
MARGINAL RISK, MAINLY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. ELEVATED PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING, WITH WPC HAVING A MARGINAL
ERO FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, THE
WARM TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MAXTS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST AND
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID
TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS MARGINAL EROS
FOR DAYS 3-5 FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF CHANTAL IS BRINGING
BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO LIMIT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
BRINGING BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR
TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FOG LESS THAN 10%. A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY BRINGING
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS, WITH
BEST CHANCE LATE AFTERNOON AT WESTERN TAF SITES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOST MORNINGS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MONDAY...CURRENT OBS SHOWING S TO SW WINDS AROUND
10-20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET, AND SEAS AROUND
3-5 FT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT TO SEE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TOMORROW BETWEEN
THE INLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING BRINGING WINDS BACK TO AROUND 10-20 KT. SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT PERSIST
BUT MAY BE ABLE TO BE LOWERS SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH SW
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT (OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE),
HIGHEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THERMAL GRADIENT
PEAKING. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4 FT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, HOWEVER THE DOMINANT PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
WILL BE ON THE SHORTER WIND WAVE SIDE, 5-6SEC. SO, EXPECT BUMPY
3-4FT WIND WAVES OUT OF THE S/SW ON TOP OF 1-2FT LONG PERIOD
SWELL ON THE ORDER OF 13-15SEC OUT OF THE EAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NCZ029-
044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
150-152-154-231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...CEB/ZC
AVIATION...SK/CEB
MARINE...SK/CEB
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