624
FXUS62 KMHX 080900
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, KEEPING ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED HEAT RISK TODAY
- A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLJ WILL DEVELOP TODAY EAST OF THE
LOW- LEVEL TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL HELP
DRAW A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS, WITH PWATS
FORECAST TO REACH 2" BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE CLIMBING TO
2000-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE. WITH RIDGING ALOFT, FLOW
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK, WHICH WILL KEEP
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE WEAKER SIDE (IE. <20KT). THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR A TYPICAL JULY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE DEVELOPING
SEABREEZE. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR, THE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME TALLER CORES WHERE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. BASED ON THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT, THE MOST SUSTAINED CORES SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF 40-60
MPH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO HALF INCH SIZE. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
PLUS INCREASED MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW SOME
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE STRONGEST CORES AS
WELL. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL LACK OF STRONGER LIFT AND A LOWER
RISK OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF FLOODING AT
A MINIMUM.
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY, AND WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC, I
EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL END UP PEAKING HIGHER THAN THEY DID
YESTERDAY. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO TAKE A BUMP UP
TODAY AS WELL, WHICH SPELLS AN INCREASED RISK OF 105+ HEAT
INDICES. BASED ON THIS, THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT CONTINUES TO LOOK SOLID FOR OUR AREA, AND NO CHANGES TO
THE HEADLINE ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHIFTING
FURTHER INLAND AWAY FROM ENC BY THIS EVENING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST. LATER TONIGHT, CONTINUED LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
OTHERWISE, A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 0445 TUESDAY...A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY, WITH A SIMILAR THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN. ~2000 J/KG MLCAPE COUPLED WITH MEAGER BULK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. SPC HAS THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK, MAINLY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO POSSIBILITY
OF WATER LOADING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ELEVATED PWATS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLOODING, WITH WPC HAVING A MARGINAL ERO FOR THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, THE
WARM TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAXTS
IN THE LOW 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST, HOWEVER TDS IN THE LOW 70S
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY RANGE
(MAX APPT<105DEG).
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID
TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS MARGINAL EROS
FOR DAYS 2-4 FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST, APPROACHING THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- TRANSIENT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
- SLIGHT INCREASE IN TSRA RISK TODAY (20-40% CHANCE)
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO BE
SUPPORTING TRANSIENT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AT THIS
TIME. THUS FAR, THESE CIGS HAVEN'T MADE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND
TOWARDS ANY OF THE ENC TAF SITES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME OF
THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SHIFT INLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW, AND I'VE OPTED TO
CONTINUE RUNNING WITH VFR TAFS OVERNIGHT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THIS RISK WERE TO INCREASE. OTHERWISE, A
FAIRLY TYPICAL SEABREEZE TSRA RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF ENC,
AND IN LIGHT OF THIS, I DECIDED TO ADD A PROB30 MENTION AT KOAJ
AND KISO. ELSEWHERE, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER, AND I'LL CONTINUE TO
KEEP TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WHERE TSRA OCCUR, THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS, 30-50KT WIND GUSTS, AND SMALL
HAIL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SEABREEZE, CONTINUED LOW-MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF MVFR
CIGS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...SW WINDS 10-15KT EARLY, BUILDING TO
15-20G25KT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE INLAND
THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
SEAS 2-4 FT SEAS EARLY, FALL DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING TO 2-3FT
BUT PICK BACK UP TO 3-5FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS. 1-2FT WEAKENING ESEERLY SWELL (14-15SEC
EARLY, 10-11SEC BY SUNSET) UNDERNEATH THE 2-4FT SSWERLY WIND
WAVES (5-6SEC). HAVE ISSUED A MARGINAL SCA FOR PAMLICO, CROATAN,
AND ROANOKE SOUNDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT FOR 25KT GUSTS. LOCALIZED SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET NWARD TOWARDS
DUCK, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY LONG LIVED AND DO
NOT COVER ENOUGH OF THE ZONE TO WARRANT AN SCA ISSUANCE. WITH
THAT SAID, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF DAY SHIFT ISSUES ONE FOR THESE
WATERS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH SW
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT (OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE),
HIGHEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THERMAL GRADIENT
PEAKING. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4 FT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, HOWEVER THE DOMINANT PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
WILL BE ON THE SHORTER WIND WAVE SIDE, 5-6SEC. SO, EXPECT BUMPY
3-4FT WIND WAVES OUT OF THE S/SW ON TOP OF WEAKENING 1-2FT LONG
PERIOD SWELL OUT OF THE EAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB
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