624  
FXUS62 KMHX 080900  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE  
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND, KEEPING ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/  
 
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- INCREASED HEAT RISK TODAY  
 
- A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
 
A MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LLJ WILL DEVELOP TODAY EAST OF THE  
LOW- LEVEL TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL HELP  
DRAW A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS, WITH PWATS  
FORECAST TO REACH 2" BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, HEATING OF A  
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE CLIMBING TO  
2000-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE. WITH RIDGING ALOFT, FLOW  
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK, WHICH WILL KEEP  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE WEAKER SIDE (IE. <20KT). THIS SHOULD SET  
THE STAGE FOR A TYPICAL JULY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED PULSE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE DEVELOPING  
SEABREEZE. DESPITE WEAK SHEAR, THE MODERATE TO STRONG  
INSTABILITY APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF SOME TALLER CORES WHERE LOW-  
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. BASED ON THE FORECAST  
ENVIRONMENT, THE MOST SUSTAINED CORES SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF 40-60  
MPH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL UP TO HALF INCH SIZE. SLOW STORM MOTIONS  
PLUS INCREASED MOISTURE WITHIN THE COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW SOME  
HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP BENEATH THE STRONGEST CORES AS  
WELL. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL LACK OF STRONGER LIFT AND A LOWER  
RISK OF SUSTAINED CONVECTION SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF FLOODING AT  
A MINIMUM.  
 
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME  
YESTERDAY, AND WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC, I  
EXPECT DEWPOINTS WILL END UP PEAKING HIGHER THAN THEY DID  
YESTERDAY. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO TAKE A BUMP UP  
TODAY AS WELL, WHICH SPELLS AN INCREASED RISK OF 105+ HEAT  
INDICES. BASED ON THIS, THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN  
EFFECT CONTINUES TO LOOK SOLID FOR OUR AREA, AND NO CHANGES TO  
THE HEADLINE ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...  
 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEABREEZE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SHIFTING  
FURTHER INLAND AWAY FROM ENC BY THIS EVENING, WITH DRY  
CONDITIONS FOR MOST. LATER TONIGHT, CONTINUED LOW-MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.  
OTHERWISE, A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY MILD.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
AS OF 0445 TUESDAY...A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR  
WEDNESDAY, WITH A SIMILAR THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER  
THE COASTAL PLAIN. ~2000 J/KG MLCAPE COUPLED WITH MEAGER BULK  
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. SPC HAS THE FAR  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK, MAINLY FOR THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO POSSIBILITY  
OF WATER LOADING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ELEVATED PWATS WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED  
FLOODING, WITH WPC HAVING A MARGINAL ERO FOR THE WESTERN  
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, THE  
WARM TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAXTS  
IN THE LOW 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST, HOWEVER TDS IN THE LOW 70S  
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY RANGE  
(MAX APPT<105DEG).  
 
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID  
TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE  
REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE  
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS MARGINAL EROS  
FOR DAYS 2-4 FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT  
THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY  
IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW  
STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR  
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  
 
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC  
COAST, APPROACHING THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN  
NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 200 AM TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- TRANSIENT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING  
 
- SLIGHT INCREASE IN TSRA RISK TODAY (20-40% CHANCE)  
 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC APPEARS TO BE  
SUPPORTING TRANSIENT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AT THIS  
TIME. THUS FAR, THESE CIGS HAVEN'T MADE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND  
TOWARDS ANY OF THE ENC TAF SITES. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME OF  
THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SHIFT INLAND THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW, AND I'VE OPTED TO  
CONTINUE RUNNING WITH VFR TAFS OVERNIGHT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THIS RISK WERE TO INCREASE. OTHERWISE, A  
FAIRLY TYPICAL SEABREEZE TSRA RISK IS EXPECTED TODAY. GUIDANCE  
IS SHOWING THE STRONGEST SIGNAL OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF ENC,  
AND IN LIGHT OF THIS, I DECIDED TO ADD A PROB30 MENTION AT KOAJ  
AND KISO. ELSEWHERE, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER, AND I'LL CONTINUE TO  
KEEP TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WHERE TSRA OCCUR, THERE WILL  
BE A RISK OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS, 30-50KT WIND GUSTS, AND SMALL  
HAIL. IN THE WAKE OF THE SEABREEZE, CONTINUED LOW-MID LEVEL  
MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF MVFR  
CIGS TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...SW WINDS 10-15KT EARLY, BUILDING TO  
15-20G25KT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE INLAND  
THERMAL TROUGH AND OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  
SEAS 2-4 FT SEAS EARLY, FALL DOWN THROUGH THE MORNING TO 2-3FT  
BUT PICK BACK UP TO 3-5FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE  
STRENGTHENING WINDS. 1-2FT WEAKENING ESEERLY SWELL (14-15SEC  
EARLY, 10-11SEC BY SUNSET) UNDERNEATH THE 2-4FT SSWERLY WIND  
WAVES (5-6SEC). HAVE ISSUED A MARGINAL SCA FOR PAMLICO, CROATAN,  
AND ROANOKE SOUNDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF  
TONIGHT FOR 25KT GUSTS. LOCALIZED SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE  
FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET NWARD TOWARDS  
DUCK, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY LONG LIVED AND DO  
NOT COVER ENOUGH OF THE ZONE TO WARRANT AN SCA ISSUANCE. WITH  
THAT SAID, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF DAY SHIFT ISSUES ONE FOR THESE  
WATERS.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE  
WERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS  
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH SW  
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT (OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE),  
HIGHEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THERMAL GRADIENT  
PEAKING. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4 FT DURING THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD, HOWEVER THE DOMINANT PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK  
WILL BE ON THE SHORTER WIND WAVE SIDE, 5-6SEC. SO, EXPECT BUMPY  
3-4FT WIND WAVES OUT OF THE S/SW ON TOP OF WEAKENING 1-2FT LONG  
PERIOD SWELL OUT OF THE EAST.  
 
 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING  
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-204-205.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT  
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-231.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RM  
SHORT TERM...RM  
LONG TERM...CEB  
AVIATION...RM/CEB  
MARINE...CEB  
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