868  
FXUS62 KMHX 081820  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
220 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE  
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND, KEEPING ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- INCREASED HEAT RISK TODAY  
 
- A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
 
A FAIRLY QUIET START TO THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS  
POPPING UP ALONG THE GULF STREAM AT THIS TIME. SEA BREEZE WILL  
BE THE MAIN CATALYST FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A FAIR  
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG  
OF CAPE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. A  
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY FOCUS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IN  
THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA AND THEREFORE CARRYING HIGHER  
POP VALUES IN THIS AREA. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR TO HELP MAINTAIN  
ANY OF THIS CONVECTION AND THEREFORE EXPECTING MUCH OF THE  
ACTIVITY TO BE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION A  
FEW GUSTS OF 15-20KTS CAN BE EXPECTED.  
 
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
70S HAVE BROUGHT HEAT INDICES INTO THE LOW 100'S WITH A COUPLE  
OF VALUES OVER 105. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR ALL  
INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT EXPECT LOWS ONCE AGAIN IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...  
 
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.  
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ANOTHER DAY OF DECENT  
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT LITTLE SHEAR TO  
SUSTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. WPC  
HAS ALSO ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLOODING FOR A SIMILAR AREA  
FOR TOMORROW. HOT AND HUMID ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN  
THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND AND DEWPOINTS IN  
THE MID 70S THAT SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX LEVELS OVER 100  
INLAND BUT JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0445 TUESDAY...A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR  
WEDNESDAY, WITH A SIMILAR THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER  
THE COASTAL PLAIN. ~2000 J/KG MLCAPE COUPLED WITH MEAGER BULK  
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. SPC HAS THE FAR  
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK, MAINLY FOR THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO POSSIBILITY  
OF WATER LOADING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ELEVATED PWATS WILL  
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED  
FLOODING, WITH WPC HAVING A MARGINAL ERO FOR THE WESTERN  
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, THE  
WARM TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAXTS  
IN THE LOW 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST, HOWEVER TDS IN THE LOW 70S  
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY RANGE  
(MAX APPT<105DEG).  
 
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID  
TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE  
REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE  
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS MARGINAL EROS  
FOR DAYS 2-4 FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT  
THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY  
IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW  
STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR  
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  
 
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC  
COAST, APPROACHING THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN  
NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...  
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SLIGHT INCREASE IN TSRA RISK TODAY (~30% CHANCE)  
 
- SOME RISK OF SUB VFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT  
 
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE  
CONVECTION HAS YET TO GET GOING. WHEN IT DOES, EXPECT  
KOAJ/KISO/KEWN TO HAVE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING  
15-20 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET. AS  
FAR AS SUB-VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THERE IS SOME HINT AT  
MVFR CEILINGS ESPECIALLY AT KPGV AND KISO BUT UNCERTAINTY IS  
HIGH. FOR NOW HAVE JUST INCLUDED SCATTERED 5 KFT IN THE TAFS AT  
ALL TERMINALS. ANY FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD SUBSIDE SHORTLY AFTER  
SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 215 PM TUESDAY...  
 
CURRENT WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KTS BUT SHOULD BE RISING  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS 25 KTS. SCA CONTINUES FOR  
PAMLICO, CROATAN, AND ROANOKE SOUNDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT FOR 25KT GUSTS. LOCALIZED SCA  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS FROM  
OREGON INLET NWARD TOWARDS DUCK, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO  
BE VERY LONG LIVED AND DO NOT COVER ENOUGH OF THE ZONE TO  
WARRANT AN SCA ISSUANCE. WITH THAT SAID, DON'T BE SURPRISED IF  
DAY SHIFT ISSUES ONE FOR THESE WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY AT 2-4  
FEET ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE  
WERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS  
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH SW  
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT (OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE),  
HIGHEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THERMAL GRADIENT  
PEAKING. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4 FT DURING THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD, HOWEVER THE DOMINANT PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK  
WILL BE ON THE SHORTER WIND WAVE SIDE, 5-6SEC. SO, EXPECT BUMPY  
3-4FT WIND WAVES OUT OF THE S/SW ON TOP OF WEAKENING 1-2FT LONG  
PERIOD SWELL OUT OF THE EAST.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-  
079>081-090>092-094-193-194-198.  
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-  
204-205.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-231.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RTE  
SHORT TERM...RTE  
LONG TERM...CEB  
AVIATION...RTE/RM/CEB  
MARINE...RTE/CEB  
 
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