293
FXUS62 KMHX 082345
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, KEEPING ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN
MOST OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL NC. THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT DEVELOPMENT COULD
SEEP EASTWARD TO THE ENC COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING, AND IF
UPDRAFTS CAN MATURE, THERE WOULD BE A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OWED TO THE VERY HIGH INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT AND RISK FOR
CONVECTIVE DOWNBURSTS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ANOTHER DAY OF DECENT
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT LITTLE SHEAR TO
SUSTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. WPC
HAS ALSO ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLOODING FOR A SIMILAR AREA
FOR TOMORROW. HOT AND HUMID ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S THAT SHOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX LEVELS OVER 100
INLAND BUT JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 0445 TUESDAY...A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY, WITH A SIMILAR THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN. ~2000 J/KG MLCAPE COUPLED WITH MEAGER BULK
SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. SPC HAS THE FAR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK, MAINLY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DUE TO POSSIBILITY
OF WATER LOADING STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ELEVATED PWATS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLOODING, WITH WPC HAVING A MARGINAL ERO FOR THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH INCREASING THICKNESSES DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE, THE
WARM TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH MAXTS
IN THE LOW 90S INLAND FROM THE COAST, HOWEVER TDS IN THE LOW 70S
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY RANGE
(MAX APPT<105DEG).
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID
TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS MARGINAL EROS
FOR DAYS 2-4 FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT
THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST, APPROACHING THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE, AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME LOW
STRATUS (~1000 FT), BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER STRATUS
WILL BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CEILINGS AT ANY TERMINALS.
TOMORROW, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO SOME BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...
WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS ARE NOW BEING SEEN OVER THE PAMLICO AND
CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. WITH THESE OBSERVATIONS, AND THE PEAK
OF THE THERMAL GRADIENT STILL TO COME, HAVE EXPANDED THE SCAS TO
THE COASTAL WATERS FOR A SHORT DURATION EVENT UNTIL EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING SW 15-20 KTS,
AND THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO
SW 15-25 KTS. SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
WERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH SW
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT (OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE),
HIGHEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THERMAL GRADIENT
PEAKING. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4 FT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, HOWEVER THE DOMINANT PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK
WILL BE ON THE SHORTER WIND WAVE SIDE, 5-6SEC. SO, EXPECT BUMPY
3-4FT WIND WAVES OUT OF THE S/SW ON TOP OF WEAKENING 1-2FT LONG
PERIOD SWELL OUT OF THE EAST.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ135-150-
152-154-231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE
SHORT TERM...RTE/SGK
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RTE/RM/SGK/CEB
MARINE...RTE/SGK/CEB
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