699  
FXUS62 KMHX 090629  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
229 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE  
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND, KEEPING AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING THUNDERSTORM  
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM  
SW VIRGINIA EAST THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. CONVECTION  
ONGOING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS  
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ISN'T EXPECTED  
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH  
THE DAY SHOULD THEN SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK NORTH, KEEPING IT  
WELL REMOVED FROM ENC. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH THROUGH  
THE NEARBY COASTAL AREAS OF ENC. THROUGH THE DAY, THE LOW-MID  
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, WHICH WILL THEN  
RELEGATE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.  
THE OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE YESTERDAY WAS  
LIKELY DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND RESIDUAL RIDGING  
ALOFT. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR  
TODAY. HOWEVER, RIDGING SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA,  
PLUS THE RETURN OF 2" PWATS, MAY ALLOW A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE  
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SEABREEZE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THE  
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, THOUGH, THAT SHORT  
TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY MUTED SEABREEZE ONCE AGAIN WHICH  
MAKES THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST LESS CERTAIN.  
 
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE A BIT COMPARED  
TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT 2-3 DEGREES  
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULDN'T CHANGE  
MUCH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES DOWN SOME, WITH A LOWERED RISK OF  
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN LIGHT OF THIS, HEAT  
HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGHING TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING  
AND TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LARGE  
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER  
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO HELP ENCOURAGE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EDGE  
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. THE NET EFFECT SHOULD BE AN  
INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO  
CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA. FOR ENC, THE QUESTION, THEN, IS  
WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE  
INTO THE AREA OR NOT. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS MIXED, RANGING FROM  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ON ONE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM, TO  
A SLOW-MOVING MCS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THE OTHER END  
OF THE SPECTRUM. BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT FOR  
NOW. HOWEVER, THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS IN  
LATER FORECAST UPDATES. AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH  
THE AREA TONIGHT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE,  
BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 15-20KT. THIS COMBINED WITH A STABILIZING  
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO  
HELP MAINTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE NIGHT  
IF CONVECTION CAN SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST. IN THE REASONABLY WORST  
CASE SCENARIO, A SLOW- MOVING MCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WOULD  
FAVOR GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR  
FLOODING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0445 TUESDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING AN  
UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH PW VALUES, THE  
GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC  
CURRENTLY HAS MARGINAL EROS FOR DAYS 2-4 FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR  
PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SEVERE STORMS TO  
DEVELOP BUT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.  
TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CLIMO.  
 
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC  
COAST, APPROACHING THE AREA BUT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN  
NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING  
 
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCATTERED AREAS  
OF LOW CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ENC AT THIS TIME. SOME EXPANSION  
OF THE LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,  
AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES AT ANY TAF  
SITE. FOR NOW, I OPTED TO CONTINUE RUNNING WITH VFR TAFS THROUGH  
THE NIGHT DUE TO RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS.  
ANY LOW CIGS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14-15Z WEDNESDAY.  
LIKE YESTERDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY  
OF LIMITED TSRA POTENTIAL ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY  
BETTER LIFT AND INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW A BUMP UP IN THE  
RISK OF TSRA TODAY. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I'VE KEPT THE PROB30  
MENTION IN FOR ALL TAF SITES, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TSRA POTENTIAL. WHILE I KEPT THE  
PROB30 GROUPS IN, I SHORTENED THE TIME WINDOW OF TSRA POTENTIAL  
AS A WAY TO REFLECT THE LOWERED CONFIDENCE. BY WEDNESDAY  
EVENING, TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MAY MAKE A RUN AT  
ENC, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE, AND THE TAFS WILL  
NOT REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL YET.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 8 PM TUESDAY...  
 
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING SW  
15-20 KTS, AND THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING TO SW 15-25 KTS. SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE  
WERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SYSTEMS PUSHING ACROSS  
THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP GRADIENTS SOMEWHAT PINCHED WITH SW  
WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT (OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE),  
HIGHEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THERMAL GRADIENT  
PEAKING. SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4 FT DURING THE LONG TERM  
PERIOD, HOWEVER THE DOMINANT PERIOD THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK  
WILL BE ON THE SHORTER WIND WAVE SIDE, 5-6SEC. SO, EXPECT BUMPY  
3-4FT WIND WAVES OUT OF THE S/SW ON TOP OF WEAKENING 1-2FT LONG  
PERIOD SWELL OUT OF THE EAST.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT  
TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ231.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RM  
SHORT TERM...RM  
LONG TERM...CEB  
AVIATION...RM/CEB  
MARINE...CEB  
 
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