851
FXUS62 KMHX 090916
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
516 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, KEEPING AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT
EARLY THIS MORNING, A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM
SW VIRGINIA EAST THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. CONVECTION
ONGOING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ISN'T EXPECTED
TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY SHOULD THEN SHIFT THIS BOUNDARY BACK NORTH, KEEPING IT
WELL REMOVED FROM ENC. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MODEST LOW-MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH THROUGH
THE NEARBY COASTAL AREAS OF ENC. THROUGH THE DAY, THE LOW-MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, WHICH WILL THEN
RELEGATE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.
THE OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE SEABREEZE YESTERDAY WAS
LIKELY DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT AND RESIDUAL RIDGING
ALOFT. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR
TODAY. HOWEVER, RIDGING SHIFTING A BIT FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA,
PLUS THE RETURN OF 2" PWATS, MAY ALLOW A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SEABREEZE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THE
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED, THOUGH, THAT SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY MUTED SEABREEZE ONCE AGAIN WHICH
MAKES THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST LESS CERTAIN.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE A BIT COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT 2-3 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULDN'T CHANGE
MUCH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES DOWN SOME, WITH A LOWERED RISK OF
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN LIGHT OF THIS, HEAT
HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO HELP ENCOURAGE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EDGE
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. THE NET EFFECT SHOULD BE AN
INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA. FOR ENC, THE QUESTION, THEN, IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE
INTO THE AREA OR NOT. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS MIXED, RANGING FROM
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ON ONE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM, TO
A SLOW-MOVING MCS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THE OTHER END
OF THE SPECTRUM. BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT FOR
NOW. HOWEVER, THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS IN
LATER FORECAST UPDATES. AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
THE AREA TONIGHT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE,
BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 15-20KT. THIS COMBINED WITH A STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
HELP MAINTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE NIGHT
IF CONVECTION CAN SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST. IN THE REASONABLY WORST
CASE SCENARIO, A SLOW- MOVING MCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WOULD
FAVOR GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 0445 WEDNESDAY...OVERALL, SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SFC
THERMAL TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVELS
HAVE MULTIPLE TROUGHS AND/OR CLOSED LOWS STREAMING THROUGH
GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE NE COAST BUT AT OUR LATITUDE, RIDGING
DOMINATES OFFSHORE TO THE E AND OVER WCONUS. A SERIES OF
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TAPPED FROM MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD ACROSS
SECONUS. TYPICAL DIURNAL POP PATTERN UNLESS A STRONGER STORM
CLUSTER PERSISTS AND DRIFTS INTO THE FA FROM FURTHER INLAND IN
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH HIGH PW
VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA IN A
MARGINAL ERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. INSTABILITY IS
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT AROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR, 2-4KJ/KG
DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU TRUST. SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DEPARTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL
JET(S) WELL TO THE N AND OFFSHORE HIGH EXPANDING ITS EFFECTIVE
AREA WARD AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, WATER LOADING
OF STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTIER WIND POTENTIAL
SHOULD THE BOTTOM FALL OUT OF MORE VIGOROUS CELLS. AS SUCH, SPC
HAS PARTS OF THE FA IN MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP. COASTAL PLAIN IS WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
GREATEST CONVERGENCE WOULD LINE UP.
MAXTS IN UPPER 80S, MINTS MID 70S.
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BUT THERE ARE TONS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR AND HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL MARCH SWARD. THIS REMAINS CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH
MOMENTUM GETS TRANSFERRED FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITING NECONUS
AND WHERE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL MCSS LINE UP.
FOR NOW, KEEPING THE BACKDOOR FRONT N OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL SUMMER
TIME SHOWER AND TSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCATTERED AREAS
OF LOW CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ENC AT THIS TIME. SOME EXPANSION
OF THE LOW CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES AT ANY TAF
SITE. FOR NOW, I OPTED TO CONTINUE RUNNING WITH VFR TAFS THROUGH
THE NIGHT DUE TO RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS.
ANY LOW CIGS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14-15Z WEDNESDAY.
LIKE YESTERDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY
OF LIMITED TSRA POTENTIAL ALONG THE SEABREEZE. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY
BETTER LIFT AND INCREASED MOISTURE MAY ALLOW A BUMP UP IN THE
RISK OF TSRA TODAY. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I'VE KEPT THE PROB30
MENTION IN FOR ALL TAF SITES, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TSRA POTENTIAL. WHILE I KEPT THE
PROB30 GROUPS IN, I SHORTENED THE TIME WINDOW OF TSRA POTENTIAL
AS A WAY TO REFLECT THE LOWERED CONFIDENCE. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING, TSRA DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL NC MAY MAKE A RUN AT
ENC, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE, AND THE TAFS WILL
NOT REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL YET.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0430 WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. SLOW
MOVING FRONT SAGS DOWN THE NE COAST LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0500 WEDNESDAY...RINSE AND REPEAT OF YESTERDAY.
SWERLY 10-15G20KT BUILDING TO 15-20G25-30KT IN LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO EASE AFTER MIDNIGHT,
SEAS LESS THAN IDEAL IF GREEN IN SMALLER BOATS, 2-4FT SSWERLY
WIND WAVES ON TOP OF WEAKENING 1-2FT ESEERLY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL.
SCAS ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NWARD,
PAM/CRO/ROA SOUNDS DUE TO THE 25-30KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO AN
HR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0510 WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR TO ABOVE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN
WHAT THE WINDS WILL PEAK AT IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS
THE OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS WWARD TOWARD THE COAST FRI.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN NECOAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT FOR NOW,
KEEP IT NO FURTHER S THAN THE NC/VA BORDER UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE, SEE ABOVE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB
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