700
FXUS62 KMHX 091207
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
807 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, KEEPING AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 730 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT
OFFSHORE CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO MIGRATE/DEVELOP INLAND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS NOTED FROM
COASTAL ONSLOW COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROBABLY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS BEFORE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.
ONCE WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE THE SEABREEZE. THE OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTION ALONG
THE SEABREEZE YESTERDAY WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND RESIDUAL RIDGING ALOFT. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, RIDGING SHIFTING A BIT
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA, PLUS THE RETURN OF 2" PWATS, MAY ALLOW
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE SEABREEZE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED,
THOUGH, THAT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY MUTED SEABREEZE
ONCE AGAIN WHICH MAKES THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST LESS CERTAIN.
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE A BIT COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT 2-3 DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULDN'T CHANGE
MUCH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES DOWN SOME, WITH A LOWERED RISK OF
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN LIGHT OF THIS, HEAT
HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LARGE
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO HELP ENCOURAGE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EDGE
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. THE NET EFFECT SHOULD BE AN
INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA. FOR ENC, THE QUESTION, THEN, IS
WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE
INTO THE AREA OR NOT. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS MIXED, RANGING FROM
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ON ONE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM, TO
A SLOW-MOVING MCS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THE OTHER END
OF THE SPECTRUM. BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT FOR
NOW. HOWEVER, THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS IN
LATER FORECAST UPDATES. AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
THE AREA TONIGHT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE,
BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 15-20KT. THIS COMBINED WITH A STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
HELP MAINTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE NIGHT
IF CONVECTION CAN SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST. IN THE REASONABLY WORST
CASE SCENARIO, A SLOW- MOVING MCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WOULD
FAVOR GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 0445 WEDNESDAY...OVERALL, SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SFC
THERMAL TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVELS
HAVE MULTIPLE TROUGHS AND/OR CLOSED LOWS STREAMING THROUGH
GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE NE COAST BUT AT OUR LATITUDE, RIDGING
DOMINATES OFFSHORE TO THE E AND OVER WCONUS. A SERIES OF
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TAPPED FROM MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD ACROSS
SECONUS. TYPICAL DIURNAL POP PATTERN UNLESS A STRONGER STORM
CLUSTER PERSISTS AND DRIFTS INTO THE FA FROM FURTHER INLAND IN
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH HIGH PW
VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA IN A
MARGINAL ERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. INSTABILITY IS
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT AROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR, 2-4KJ/KG
DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU TRUST. SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DEPARTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL
JET(S) WELL TO THE N AND OFFSHORE HIGH EXPANDING ITS EFFECTIVE
AREA WARD AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, WATER LOADING
OF STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTIER WIND POTENTIAL
SHOULD THE BOTTOM FALL OUT OF MORE VIGOROUS CELLS. AS SUCH, SPC
HAS PARTS OF THE FA IN MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP. COASTAL PLAIN IS WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
GREATEST CONVERGENCE WOULD LINE UP.
MAXTS IN UPPER 80S, MINTS MID 70S.
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BUT THERE ARE TONS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR AND HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL MARCH SWARD. THIS REMAINS CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH
MOMENTUM GETS TRANSFERRED FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITING NECONUS
AND WHERE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL MCSS LINE UP.
FOR NOW, KEEPING THE BACKDOOR FRONT N OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL SUMMER
TIME SHOWER AND TSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO VFR
CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING THE TSRA
POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN AREA OF
MODEST LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS,
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE COAST OF ENC. THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE
HAS ALLOWED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BEGIN TO
MIGRATE TOWARDS/DEVELOP OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM SOUTH
OF KOAJ TO NEAR KHSE. I EXPECT THESE SHRA TO PERSIST FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS, POTENTIALLY REACHING AS FAR INLAND AS KOAJ AND KEWN
PRIOR TO 16Z. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I'VE ADDED A SHRA MENTION TO
BOTH TERMINALS. AFTER THE MORNING SHRA, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL
UNTIL THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. RECENT SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO TREND A BIT MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE, WHICH GIVES A NUDGE UP IN CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH
YET FOR A TEMPO OR PREVAILING LINE FOR TSRA, BUT IT APPEARS TO
GIVE MORE CREDENCE TO THE PROB30 GROUPS. LATER THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL FOR
TSRA TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL NC AND INTO PARTS OF ENC. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS (CIGS, VIS).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0430 WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. SLOW
MOVING FRONT SAGS DOWN THE NE COAST LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 0500 WEDNESDAY...RINSE AND REPEAT OF YESTERDAY.
SWERLY 10-15G20KT BUILDING TO 15-20G25-30KT IN LATE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO EASE AFTER MIDNIGHT,
SEAS LESS THAN IDEAL IF GREEN IN SMALLER BOATS, 2-4FT SSWERLY
WIND WAVES ON TOP OF WEAKENING 1-2FT ESEERLY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL.
SCAS ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NWARD,
PAM/CRO/ROA SOUNDS DUE TO THE 25-30KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO AN
HR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0510 WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR TO ABOVE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN
WHAT THE WINDS WILL PEAK AT IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS
THE OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS WWARD TOWARD THE COAST FRI.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN NECOAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT FOR NOW,
KEEP IT NO FURTHER S THAN THE NC/VA BORDER UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE, SEE ABOVE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB
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