700  
FXUS62 KMHX 091207  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
807 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE  
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND, KEEPING AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 730 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING THUNDERSTORM  
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
OFFSHORE CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO MIGRATE/DEVELOP INLAND ALONG  
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THIS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS NOTED FROM  
COASTAL ONSLOW COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OUTER BANKS. THIS  
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
PROBABLY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2-4 HOURS BEFORE LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS.  
 
ONCE WE MOVE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION  
LOOKS TO BE THE SEABREEZE. THE OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTION ALONG  
THE SEABREEZE YESTERDAY WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR  
ALOFT AND RESIDUAL RIDGING ALOFT. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN  
LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, RIDGING SHIFTING A BIT  
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA, PLUS THE RETURN OF 2" PWATS, MAY ALLOW  
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE SEABREEZE COMPARED TO  
YESTERDAY, AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED,  
THOUGH, THAT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY MUTED SEABREEZE  
ONCE AGAIN WHICH MAKES THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST LESS CERTAIN.  
 
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE A BIT COMPARED  
TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT 2-3 DEGREES  
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULDN'T CHANGE  
MUCH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES DOWN SOME, WITH A LOWERED RISK OF  
REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN LIGHT OF THIS, HEAT  
HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 215 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTING OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGHING TO EDGE CLOSER TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS EVENING  
AND TONIGHT, WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN OVERALL INCREASE IN LARGE  
SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER  
TROUGH SHOULD ALSO HELP ENCOURAGE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO EDGE  
CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. THE NET EFFECT SHOULD BE AN  
INCREASED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NC NORTH INTO  
CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA. FOR ENC, THE QUESTION, THEN, IS  
WHETHER OR NOT ANY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE  
INTO THE AREA OR NOT. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS MIXED, RANGING FROM  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ON ONE SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM, TO  
A SLOW-MOVING MCS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON THE OTHER END  
OF THE SPECTRUM. BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO, AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT FOR  
NOW. HOWEVER, THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS IN  
LATER FORECAST UPDATES. AS THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH  
THE AREA TONIGHT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE,  
BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 15-20KT. THIS COMBINED WITH A STABILIZING  
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS AT A MINIMUM. HOWEVER, THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO  
HELP MAINTAIN SOME THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE NIGHT  
IF CONVECTION CAN SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST. IN THE REASONABLY WORST  
CASE SCENARIO, A SLOW- MOVING MCS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WOULD  
FAVOR GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR  
FLOODING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0445 WEDNESDAY...OVERALL, SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SFC  
THERMAL TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVELS  
HAVE MULTIPLE TROUGHS AND/OR CLOSED LOWS STREAMING THROUGH  
GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE NE COAST BUT AT OUR LATITUDE, RIDGING  
DOMINATES OFFSHORE TO THE E AND OVER WCONUS. A SERIES OF  
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO  
LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF  
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TAPPED FROM MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD ACROSS  
SECONUS. TYPICAL DIURNAL POP PATTERN UNLESS A STRONGER STORM  
CLUSTER PERSISTS AND DRIFTS INTO THE FA FROM FURTHER INLAND IN  
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH HIGH PW  
VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY  
RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA IN A  
MARGINAL ERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. INSTABILITY IS  
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT AROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR, 2-4KJ/KG  
DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU TRUST. SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT  
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DEPARTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL  
JET(S) WELL TO THE N AND OFFSHORE HIGH EXPANDING ITS EFFECTIVE  
AREA WARD AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, WATER LOADING  
OF STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTIER WIND POTENTIAL  
SHOULD THE BOTTOM FALL OUT OF MORE VIGOROUS CELLS. AS SUCH, SPC  
HAS PARTS OF THE FA IN MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO  
DEVELOP. COASTAL PLAIN IS WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND  
GREATEST CONVERGENCE WOULD LINE UP.  
 
MAXTS IN UPPER 80S, MINTS MID 70S.  
 
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC  
COAST BUT THERE ARE TONS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR AND HOW  
QUICKLY IT WILL MARCH SWARD. THIS REMAINS CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH  
MOMENTUM GETS TRANSFERRED FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITING NECONUS  
AND WHERE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL MCSS LINE UP.  
 
FOR NOW, KEEPING THE BACKDOOR FRONT N OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL SUMMER  
TIME SHOWER AND TSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 730 AM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO VFR  
CONDITIONS BY 14-15Z  
 
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE REGARDING THE TSRA  
POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS AN AREA OF  
MODEST LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS,  
EXTENDING INLAND TO THE COAST OF ENC. THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE  
HAS ALLOWED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BEGIN TO  
MIGRATE TOWARDS/DEVELOP OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM SOUTH  
OF KOAJ TO NEAR KHSE. I EXPECT THESE SHRA TO PERSIST FOR A FEW  
MORE HOURS, POTENTIALLY REACHING AS FAR INLAND AS KOAJ AND KEWN  
PRIOR TO 16Z. IN LIGHT OF THIS, I'VE ADDED A SHRA MENTION TO  
BOTH TERMINALS. AFTER THE MORNING SHRA, THERE SHOULD BE A LULL  
UNTIL THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. RECENT SHORT TERM  
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO TREND A BIT MORE ACTIVE ALONG THE  
SEABREEZE, WHICH GIVES A NUDGE UP IN CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE  
POTENTIAL FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH  
YET FOR A TEMPO OR PREVAILING LINE FOR TSRA, BUT IT APPEARS TO  
GIVE MORE CREDENCE TO THE PROB30 GROUPS. LATER THIS EVENING AND  
INTO TONIGHT, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DECENT SIGNAL FOR  
TSRA TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL NC AND INTO PARTS OF ENC. SHOULD  
THIS OCCUR, THIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASED RISK OF SUB VFR  
CONDITIONS (CIGS, VIS).  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. SLOW  
MOVING FRONT SAGS DOWN THE NE COAST LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...  
AS OF 0500 WEDNESDAY...RINSE AND REPEAT OF YESTERDAY.  
SWERLY 10-15G20KT BUILDING TO 15-20G25-30KT IN LATE AFTERNOON  
BEFORE BEGINNING TO EASE AFTER MIDNIGHT,  
 
SEAS LESS THAN IDEAL IF GREEN IN SMALLER BOATS, 2-4FT SSWERLY  
WIND WAVES ON TOP OF WEAKENING 1-2FT ESEERLY LONGER PERIOD  
SWELL.  
 
SCAS ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NWARD,  
PAM/CRO/ROA SOUNDS DUE TO THE 25-30KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO AN  
HR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 0510 WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR TO ABOVE THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN  
WHAT THE WINDS WILL PEAK AT IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS  
THE OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS WWARD TOWARD THE COAST FRI.  
 
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN NECOAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT FOR NOW,  
KEEP IT NO FURTHER S THAN THE NC/VA BORDER UNTIL EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THEREFORE, SEE ABOVE.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT  
TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ231.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RM  
SHORT TERM...RM  
LONG TERM...CEB  
AVIATION...RM/CEB  
MARINE...CEB  
 
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