353
FXUS62 KMHX 091833
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
233 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, KEEPING AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
- WEAKENING SHOWERS/TSTORMS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
WEST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
A CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS LINGERED OVER ENC TODAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PARTS OF THE
REGION. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, DECREASING
COVERAGE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND WEST. RAIN CHANCES DO
LINGER, ESPECIALLY INLAND, UNTIL AROUND 8PM WHERE WE WILL LIKELY
GET A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN PRECIP. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, A MCS OR CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL NC, APPROACHING ENC AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR CWA WHEN THE STORMS REACH,
EXPECTING IT TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.
MACHINE LEARNING PROBS OF SEVERE WX ARE 5-10%, BUT WITH THE
STABLE LOWER LEVELS AND THE WEAKENING TREND, DON'T EXPECT IT TO
BE SEVERE AT THIS POINT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS, WHEN PAIRED
WITH A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT, SETS THE TABLE FOR INCREASED
STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR THIS REASON,
ELECTED TO NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM WITH THIS UPDATE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS, AND GUSTY,
SUB-SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. IF
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE MORNING MOVES THROUGH, IT IS
POSSIBLE INITIATION OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS DELAYED OR
SUPPRESSED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND/OR STABLE LOWER LEVELS BEHIND
THE INITIAL MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY, MID TO UPPER
80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 0445 WEDNESDAY...OVERALL, SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SFC
THERMAL TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVELS
HAVE MULTIPLE TROUGHS AND/OR CLOSED LOWS STREAMING THROUGH
GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE NE COAST BUT AT OUR LATITUDE, RIDGING
DOMINATES OFFSHORE TO THE E AND OVER WCONUS. A SERIES OF
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO
LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TAPPED FROM MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD ACROSS
SECONUS. TYPICAL DIURNAL POP PATTERN UNLESS A STRONGER STORM
CLUSTER PERSISTS AND DRIFTS INTO THE FA FROM FURTHER INLAND IN
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH HIGH PW
VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA IN A
MARGINAL ERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. INSTABILITY IS
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT AROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR, 2-4KJ/KG
DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU TRUST. SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DEPARTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL
JET(S) WELL TO THE N AND OFFSHORE HIGH EXPANDING ITS EFFECTIVE
AREA WARD AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, WATER LOADING
OF STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTIER WIND POTENTIAL
SHOULD THE BOTTOM FALL OUT OF MORE VIGOROUS CELLS. AS SUCH, SPC
HAS PARTS OF THE FA IN MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP. COASTAL PLAIN IS WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
GREATEST CONVERGENCE WOULD LINE UP.
MAXTS IN UPPER 80S, MINTS MID 70S.
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC
COAST BUT THERE ARE TONS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR AND HOW
QUICKLY IT WILL MARCH SWARD. THIS REMAINS CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH
MOMENTUM GETS TRANSFERRED FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITING NECONUS
AND WHERE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL MCSS LINE UP.
FOR NOW, KEEPING THE BACKDOOR FRONT N OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL SUMMER
TIME SHOWER AND TSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING
- ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WANES AS WE GET
PAST SUNSET, WITH LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY SETTING IN WHERE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS WERE SEEN TODAY (OAJ, EWN). AS WE GET THROUGH
TONIGHT, CONVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
WEAKEN, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WHILE A THUNDERSTORM CAN'T
BE RULED OUT TOMORROW MORNING, I DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO ADD TS MENTIONS AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DROPS
TO IFR FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN, SO I HIT ISO AND PGV THE HARDEST
WITH DROPS TO IFR CIGS FOR SUNRISE. LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES TOMORROW MORNING LEADING TO ANOTHER VFR LATE
MORNING. HIGHER TSTORM CHANCES IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW PM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0430 WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. SLOW
MOVING FRONT SAGS DOWN THE NE COAST LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY..SWERLY 10-15G20KT BUILDING TO
15-20G25-30KT IN LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO EASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT,
SEAS LESS THAN IDEAL IF GREEN IN SMALLER BOATS, 2-4FT SSWERLY
WIND WAVES ON TOP OF WEAKENING 1-2FT ESEERLY LONGER PERIOD
SWELL.
SCAS STILL IN PLACE FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NWARD,
PAM/CRO/ROA SOUNDS DUE TO THE 25-30KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO
AN HR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.
TSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE, MAINLY IMPACTING NEARSHORE WATERS AND
INLAND SOUNDS/RIVERS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0510 WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR TO ABOVE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN
WHAT THE WINDS WILL PEAK AT IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS
THE OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS WWARD TOWARD THE COAST FRI.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN NECOAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT FOR NOW,
KEEP IT NO FURTHER S THAN THE NC/VA BORDER UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE, SEE ABOVE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ231.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RJ
MARINE...CEB/RJ
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