353  
FXUS62 KMHX 091833  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
233 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE  
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND, KEEPING AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING  
 
- WEAKENING SHOWERS/TSTORMS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE  
WEST EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
A CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS LINGERED OVER ENC TODAY, BRINGING  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PARTS OF THE  
REGION. THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN, DECREASING  
COVERAGE AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH AND WEST. RAIN CHANCES DO  
LINGER, ESPECIALLY INLAND, UNTIL AROUND 8PM WHERE WE WILL LIKELY  
GET A BRIEF REPRIEVE IN PRECIP. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY  
TOMORROW MORNING, A MCS OR CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE MOVING  
THROUGH CENTRAL NC, APPROACHING ENC AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH A MORE  
STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR CWA WHEN THE STORMS REACH,  
EXPECTING IT TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.  
MACHINE LEARNING PROBS OF SEVERE WX ARE 5-10%, BUT WITH THE  
STABLE LOWER LEVELS AND THE WEAKENING TREND, DON'T EXPECT IT TO  
BE SEVERE AT THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS, WHEN PAIRED  
WITH A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT, SETS THE TABLE FOR INCREASED  
STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR THIS REASON,  
ELECTED TO NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM WITH THIS UPDATE. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS, AND GUSTY,  
SUB-SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. IF  
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE MORNING MOVES THROUGH, IT IS  
POSSIBLE INITIATION OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS DELAYED OR  
SUPPRESSED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND/OR STABLE LOWER LEVELS BEHIND  
THE INITIAL MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER  
WILL KEEP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY, MID TO UPPER  
80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0445 WEDNESDAY...OVERALL, SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SFC  
THERMAL TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVELS  
HAVE MULTIPLE TROUGHS AND/OR CLOSED LOWS STREAMING THROUGH  
GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE NE COAST BUT AT OUR LATITUDE, RIDGING  
DOMINATES OFFSHORE TO THE E AND OVER WCONUS. A SERIES OF  
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO  
LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF  
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TAPPED FROM MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD ACROSS  
SECONUS. TYPICAL DIURNAL POP PATTERN UNLESS A STRONGER STORM  
CLUSTER PERSISTS AND DRIFTS INTO THE FA FROM FURTHER INLAND IN  
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH HIGH PW  
VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY  
RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA IN A  
MARGINAL ERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. INSTABILITY IS  
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT AROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR, 2-4KJ/KG  
DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU TRUST. SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT  
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DEPARTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL  
JET(S) WELL TO THE N AND OFFSHORE HIGH EXPANDING ITS EFFECTIVE  
AREA WARD AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, WATER LOADING  
OF STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTIER WIND POTENTIAL  
SHOULD THE BOTTOM FALL OUT OF MORE VIGOROUS CELLS. AS SUCH, SPC  
HAS PARTS OF THE FA IN MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO  
DEVELOP. COASTAL PLAIN IS WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND  
GREATEST CONVERGENCE WOULD LINE UP.  
 
MAXTS IN UPPER 80S, MINTS MID 70S.  
 
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC  
COAST BUT THERE ARE TONS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR AND HOW  
QUICKLY IT WILL MARCH SWARD. THIS REMAINS CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH  
MOMENTUM GETS TRANSFERRED FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITING NECONUS  
AND WHERE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL MCSS LINE UP.  
 
FOR NOW, KEEPING THE BACKDOOR FRONT N OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL SUMMER  
TIME SHOWER AND TSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING  
 
- ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE  
BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WANES AS WE GET  
PAST SUNSET, WITH LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY SETTING IN WHERE HIGHEST  
RAINFALL TOTALS WERE SEEN TODAY (OAJ, EWN). AS WE GET THROUGH  
TONIGHT, CONVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND  
WEAKEN, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. WHILE A THUNDERSTORM CAN'T  
BE RULED OUT TOMORROW MORNING, I DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE  
TO ADD TS MENTIONS AT THIS POINT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING DROPS  
TO IFR FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN, SO I HIT ISO AND PGV THE HARDEST  
WITH DROPS TO IFR CIGS FOR SUNRISE. LOW STRATUS GRADUALLY  
DISSIPATES TOMORROW MORNING LEADING TO ANOTHER VFR LATE  
MORNING. HIGHER TSTORM CHANCES IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW PM.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. SLOW  
MOVING FRONT SAGS DOWN THE NE COAST LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY..SWERLY 10-15G20KT BUILDING TO  
15-20G25-30KT IN LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO EASE AFTER  
MIDNIGHT,  
 
SEAS LESS THAN IDEAL IF GREEN IN SMALLER BOATS, 2-4FT SSWERLY  
WIND WAVES ON TOP OF WEAKENING 1-2FT ESEERLY LONGER PERIOD  
SWELL.  
 
SCAS STILL IN PLACE FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NWARD,  
PAM/CRO/ROA SOUNDS DUE TO THE 25-30KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO  
AN HR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT.  
 
TSTORM CHANCES ARE HIGHER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY ALONG AND  
AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE, MAINLY IMPACTING NEARSHORE WATERS AND  
INLAND SOUNDS/RIVERS.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 0510 WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR TO ABOVE THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN  
WHAT THE WINDS WILL PEAK AT IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS  
THE OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS WWARD TOWARD THE COAST FRI.  
 
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN NECOAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT FOR NOW,  
KEEP IT NO FURTHER S THAN THE NC/VA BORDER UNTIL EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THEREFORE, SEE ABOVE.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ150.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR AMZ156.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ231.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RJ  
SHORT TERM...RJ  
LONG TERM...CEB  
AVIATION...CEB/RJ  
MARINE...CEB/RJ  
 
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