868  
FXUS62 KMHX 100003  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
803 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. THIS WILL BE  
FOLLOWED UP BY A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS THAT WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE WORK-WEEK. A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS  
WEEKEND, KEEPING AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN PLACE.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 8 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SMALL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE  
COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING  
 
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS ENC THIS EVENING, THOUGH A LARGE COMPLEX OF  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL NC AND VA. ALMOST  
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA  
UNTIL IT WEAKENS EARLY TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A SMALL  
CHANCE THAT CONVECTION MAKES FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS THAN  
ANTICIPATED, AND THIS WOULD BRING A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS TO THE COASTAL PLAIN LATER THIS EVENING.  
 
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THE  
AREA OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BOTH FROM THE WEST AND  
SOUTH, BUT WITH A STABLE NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT, THE SEVERE  
THREAT IS LOOKING MINIMAL TO NONE WITH THESE STORMS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS, WHEN PAIRED  
WITH A MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT, SETS THE TABLE FOR INCREASED  
STORM COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR THIS REASON,  
ELECTED TO NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM WITH THIS UPDATE. LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS, AND GUSTY,  
SUB-SEVERE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. IF  
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE MORNING MOVES THROUGH, IT IS  
POSSIBLE INITIATION OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS DELAYED OR  
SUPPRESSED WITH SUBSIDENCE AND/OR STABLE LOWER LEVELS BEHIND  
THE INITIAL MORNING CONVECTION POSSIBLE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER  
WILL KEEP HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY, MID TO UPPER  
80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 0445 WEDNESDAY...OVERALL, SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SFC  
THERMAL TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH ANCHORED OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVELS  
HAVE MULTIPLE TROUGHS AND/OR CLOSED LOWS STREAMING THROUGH  
GREAT LAKES AND OFF THE NE COAST BUT AT OUR LATITUDE, RIDGING  
DOMINATES OFFSHORE TO THE E AND OVER WCONUS. A SERIES OF  
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION MID TO  
LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE INFLUX OFF THE GULF  
AT LEAST SOMEWHAT TAPPED FROM MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD ACROSS  
SECONUS. TYPICAL DIURNAL POP PATTERN UNLESS A STRONGER STORM  
CLUSTER PERSISTS AND DRIFTS INTO THE FA FROM FURTHER INLAND IN  
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH HIGH PW  
VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY  
RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS AT LEAST PART OF THE FA IN A  
MARGINAL ERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. INSTABILITY IS  
WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT AROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR, 2-4KJ/KG  
DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU TRUST. SHEAR PARAMETERS DO NOT  
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE DEPARTURE FROM UPPER LEVEL  
JET(S) WELL TO THE N AND OFFSHORE HIGH EXPANDING ITS EFFECTIVE  
AREA WARD AT THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THAT SAID, WATER LOADING  
OF STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO SOME GUSTIER WIND POTENTIAL  
SHOULD THE BOTTOM FALL OUT OF MORE VIGOROUS CELLS. AS SUCH, SPC  
HAS PARTS OF THE FA IN MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO  
DEVELOP. COASTAL PLAIN IS WHERE THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND  
GREATEST CONVERGENCE WOULD LINE UP.  
 
MAXTS IN UPPER 80S, MINTS MID 70S.  
 
THIS WEEKEND, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE MIDATLANTIC  
COAST BUT THERE ARE TONS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR AND HOW  
QUICKLY IT WILL MARCH SWARD. THIS REMAINS CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH  
MOMENTUM GETS TRANSFERRED FROM THE TROUGH ALOFT EXITING NECONUS  
AND WHERE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES AND POTENTIAL MCSS LINE UP.  
 
FOR NOW, KEEPING THE BACKDOOR FRONT N OF THE AREA UNTIL EARLY  
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL SUMMER  
TIME SHOWER AND TSTORMS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 8 PM WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN EARLY  
TOMORROW MORNING  
 
- CONVECTION LIKELY TOMORROW AFTERNOON  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
OFFSHORE. A COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OFF THE  
WEST OVER CENTRAL NC, AND HAS A SMALL LIKELIHOOD OF MAKING TO  
THE COASTAL PLAIN, BUT WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING  
THE FORECAST AREA. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT  
AGAIN OVERNIGHT, AND MAY LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF LOW STRATUS AS  
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. BEST CHANCES AT SEEING MVFR CEILINGS  
WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM 6Z-12Z, AND THERE COULD  
EVEN BE SOME PERIODS OF IFR LEVEL STRATUS BEFORE SUNRISE. CLOSER  
TO THE COAST, SOME TRANSIENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE, BUT  
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW  
TO RETURN TOMORROW MORNING AS CLOUDBASES CONTINUE TO BE VERY  
LOW WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PRESENT. EVENTUALLY BY MID  
MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EVERYWHERE. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING, AND  
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A FRONT  
APPROACHES.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 0430 WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING THE  
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH REDUCED FLIGHT CATS. LATE  
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE  
MOST MORNINGS FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. SLOW  
MOVING FRONT SAGS DOWN THE NE COAST LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...  
AS OF 8 PM WEDNESDAY..SCAS STILL IN PLACE FOR COASTAL WATERS  
FROM CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH, AS WELL AS THE PAMLICO, CROATAN/ROANOKE  
SOUNDS AS WINDS REMAIN SW 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS HERE.  
WINDS WILL PEAK SHORTLY EARLY THIS EVENING, AND THEN SLOWLY  
SUBSIDE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SCAS SET TO EXPIRE AT 2  
AM.  
 
WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH SW 15-20 KTS IN THE  
MORNING, STRENGTHENING TO 20-25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE  
THREAT FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO AGAIN DEVELOP.  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...  
AS OF 0510 WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR TO ABOVE THROUGH THE END  
OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN  
WHAT THE WINDS WILL PEAK AT IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS AS  
THE OFFSHORE HIGH BUILDS WWARD TOWARD THE COAST FRI.  
 
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN NECOAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT FOR NOW,  
KEEP IT NO FURTHER S THAN THE NC/VA BORDER UNTIL EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THEREFORE, SEE ABOVE.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135-150-  
152-154-156-231.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...SGK/RJ  
SHORT TERM...RJ  
LONG TERM...CEB  
AVIATION...SGK/CEB/RJ  
MARINE...SGK/CEB/RJ  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NC Page Main Text Page