133  
FXUS62 KMHX 100637  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
237 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL LEAD  
TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY/  
 
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT,  
A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS  
AND MINOR FLOODING  
 
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM LAST NIGHT HAS LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR RALEIGH EAST  
THROUGH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY. MEANWHILE, THERE APPEARS  
TO BE A REMNANT MCV LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC. THE AIRMASS EAST OF  
THE MCV AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MODESTLY UNSTABLE  
AND WEAKLY CAPPED, AND THIS MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO FESTER ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR  
TO SUNRISE. WITH A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SLOW STORM  
MOTIONS, SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER, DRY  
CONDITIONS OF LATE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FLOODING RISK AT A  
MINIMUM. CLOSER TO SUNRISE, SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE  
INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS THE COAST WITHIN A BROAD  
CONFLUENT ZONE.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF ANY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ATTENTION  
WILL THEN TURN TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEABREEZE PLUS ANY  
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP PROVIDE  
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND  
THIS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TRANSLATE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT- TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE  
WAFFLED SOME ON WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE,  
BUT THE SIGNAL IS PRETTY GOOD REGARDLESS.  
 
MODERATE INSTABILITY, 2"+ PWATS, AND INCREASED FORCING SHOULD  
SUPPORT SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES, WITH AREAS OF 1-3"  
OF RAIN LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION IS THE STRONGEST AND MOST  
PERSISTENT. DRY ANTECEDANT CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP TO LOWER THE  
OVERALL FLOOD RISK TODAY. HOWEVER, ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES 2-3"  
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME  
MINOR FLOODING. BECAUSE OF THE LOWERED, AND MORE ISOLATED, FLOOD  
RISK, A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT PLANNED FOR TODAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO  
EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL, THOUGH.  
 
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY. HOWEVER, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND  
INCREASED FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT TRANSIENT, DEEP CORES CAPABLE  
OF WET MICROBURSTS. THIS POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY MACHINE  
LEARNING GUIDANCE, WHICH SUGGESTS AN INCREASED RISK OF A FEW  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.  
 
WITH INCREASED CLOUDCOVER AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,  
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 90.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...  
 
VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES COMBINED WITH A  
VERY MOIST AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A LOT OF  
WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT IS PROBABLY VERY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS  
DURING THE DAY, WHICH MAKES THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND  
INTENSITY TONIGHT LESS CERTAIN.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AS OF 230 AM THURS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A RATHER ACTIVE  
PATTERN ACROSS ENC THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS INLAND AND  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVEL  
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TO THE NORTH, WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS  
TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
NORTHEAST, WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE OFF THE  
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK  
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH  
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING  
MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF FROM MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
OVERNIGHT UNLESS A STRONGER STORM CLUSTER PERSISTS AND DRIFTS  
INTO THE CWA FROM FURTHER INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH HIGH  
PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY  
RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL ERO ON FRIDAY  
BEFORE THE AREA FINALLY SEES SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.  
THIS WILL BRIEFLY END THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  
WHILE THERE WILL BE A LACK OF WIND SHEAR ACROSS ENC OVER THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, 1000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN  
PLACE EACH DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LOW END THREAT  
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH SPC PUTTING OUR FAR WESTERN INLAND  
ZONES UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITHIN THE  
STRONGEST STORMS WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN HAVING THE HIGHEST  
CHANCE AT SEEING STRONGER STORMS.  
 
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY  
SAGS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT THERE ARE TONS OF MODEL  
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MARCH SWARD. THIS  
REMAINS CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MOMENTUM GETS TRANSFERRED FROM THE  
TROUGH ALOFT EXITING NECONUS AND WHERE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES AND  
POTENTIAL MCSS LINE UP.  
 
FOR NOW, KEEPING THE BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES OF THE  
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL  
SUMMER TIME SHOWER AND TSTORMS IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.  
 
MAX TEMPS EACH DAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH MIN  
TEMPS MID 70S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- INCREASED RISK OF TSRA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS  
 
TSRA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY  
THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF  
OF ENC. SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY FROM  
KISO TO KPGV. THE TAFS HAVE BEEN TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC OVER  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IT'S UNCLEAR  
HOW FAR SOUTH THE TSRA RISK WILL EXTEND, AND FOR THIS REASON,  
I'VE OPTED TO KEEP SHRA AND TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR KOAJ AND  
KEWN. BY SUNRISE THURSDAY, SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED  
TO MIGRATE INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY IMPACT KOAJ OR KEWN  
IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS YESTERDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS THURSDAY, MODERATE INSTABILITY, DEEP MOISTURE, AND  
INCREASED LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF TSRA  
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. I'VE KEPT PROB30S IN FOR NOW, BUT  
WHERE CONFIDENCE INCREASES, THESE WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO  
REFLECT TEMPO OR PREVAILING TSRA CONDITIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA, A PERIOD OF SUB VFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT'S UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE TSRA WILL  
LAST, THEREFORE I'VE KEPT THE TAFS AT VFR INTO THURSDAY EVENING  
FOR NOW.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 230 AM THURS...SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK  
ACROSS ENC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A  
DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SUB-VFR  
CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCE TO SEE REDUCED VIS AND CEILINGS FROM  
THIS ACTIVITY IS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.  
IF IT DOES RAIN THEN THERE WILL ALSO BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS  
THREAT EACH NIGHT AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL  
RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS DOWN THE NE COAST LATE  
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...  
AS OF 230 AM THURS...SCA'S HAVE RECENTLY BEEN TAKEN DOWN ACROSS  
ALL OUR WATERS THIS MORNING AS SW'RLY WINDS HAVE EASED DOWN TO  
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AND SEAS ALONG OUR COASTAL  
WATERS REMAINING AROUND 3-5 FT AS OF THIS UPDATE.  
 
AS WE GET INTO TODAY AND TONIGHT A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH INLAND  
WILL INTERACT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE  
ALLOWING SW'RLY WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KTS WITH A FEW  
GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KTS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED  
TODAY, THINKING IS THAT THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS  
STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS DAY WHICH WILL PRECLUDE SCA'S TODAY,  
THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OR SO ACROSS THE  
SAME AREAS THAT SAW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY  
WINDS WILL THEN EASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS  
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE  
A CHANCE TO SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS  
OUR WATERS AS WELL, BRINGING AT LEAST A THREAT FOR LOCALLY  
ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS THE  
WATERS.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 230 AM THURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN  
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED  
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST,  
EXPECT 10-20 KT SW'RLY WINDS AND WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO  
OCCASIONALLY 25 KTS ACROSS OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE  
SEAS PERSIST AROUND 2-4 FT. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.  
 
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, BUT FOR NOW, KEEP IT NO FURTHER S THAN OUR NORTHERN ZONES  
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY OUR WATERS REMAIN BELOW SCA  
CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL, AS INCOMING FRONT WILL BE  
RATHER WEAK.  
 
 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RM  
SHORT TERM...RM  
LONG TERM...RCF  
AVIATION...RM/RCF  
MARINE...RCF  
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