133
FXUS62 KMHX 100637
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
237 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL LEAD
TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT,
A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND MINOR FLOODING
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM LAST NIGHT HAS LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR RALEIGH EAST
THROUGH THE ALBEMARLE SOUND VICINITY. MEANWHILE, THERE APPEARS
TO BE A REMNANT MCV LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC. THE AIRMASS EAST OF
THE MCV AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MODESTLY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED, AND THIS MAY ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FESTER ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR A FEW HOURS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. WITH A HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS, SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER, DRY
CONDITIONS OF LATE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE FLOODING RISK AT A
MINIMUM. CLOSER TO SUNRISE, SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MIGRATE
INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC AND TOWARDS THE COAST WITHIN A BROAD
CONFLUENT ZONE.
IN THE WAKE OF ANY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ATTENTION
WILL THEN TURN TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SEABREEZE PLUS ANY
RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP PROVIDE
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL FORCING COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, AND
THIS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY TRANSLATE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT- TERM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE
WAFFLED SOME ON WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE,
BUT THE SIGNAL IS PRETTY GOOD REGARDLESS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY, 2"+ PWATS, AND INCREASED FORCING SHOULD
SUPPORT SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES, WITH AREAS OF 1-3"
OF RAIN LIKELY WHERE CONVECTION IS THE STRONGEST AND MOST
PERSISTENT. DRY ANTECEDANT CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP TO LOWER THE
OVERALL FLOOD RISK TODAY. HOWEVER, ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES 2-3"
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME
MINOR FLOODING. BECAUSE OF THE LOWERED, AND MORE ISOLATED, FLOOD
RISK, A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT PLANNED FOR TODAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL, THOUGH.
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY. HOWEVER, MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
INCREASED FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT TRANSIENT, DEEP CORES CAPABLE
OF WET MICROBURSTS. THIS POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE, WHICH SUGGESTS AN INCREASED RISK OF A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
WITH INCREASED CLOUDCOVER AND A HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 90.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...
VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES COMBINED WITH A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A LOT OF
WHAT HAPPENS TONIGHT IS PROBABLY VERY DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
DURING THE DAY, WHICH MAKES THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TONIGHT LESS CERTAIN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM THURS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A RATHER ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS ENC THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS INLAND AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TO THE NORTH, WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS
TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHEAST, WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE OFF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING
MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF FROM MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
OVERNIGHT UNLESS A STRONGER STORM CLUSTER PERSISTS AND DRIFTS
INTO THE CWA FROM FURTHER INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. WITH HIGH
PW VALUES, THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE FA IN A MARGINAL ERO ON FRIDAY
BEFORE THE AREA FINALLY SEES SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
THIS WILL BRIEFLY END THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A LACK OF WIND SHEAR ACROSS ENC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, 1000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE EACH DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A LOW END THREAT
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH SPC PUTTING OUR FAR WESTERN INLAND
ZONES UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE GREATEST THREAT WITHIN THE
STRONGEST STORMS WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN HAVING THE HIGHEST
CHANCE AT SEEING STRONGER STORMS.
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT THERE ARE TONS OF MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MARCH SWARD. THIS
REMAINS CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MOMENTUM GETS TRANSFERRED FROM THE
TROUGH ALOFT EXITING NECONUS AND WHERE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES AND
POTENTIAL MCSS LINE UP.
FOR NOW, KEEPING THE BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES OF THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL
SUMMER TIME SHOWER AND TSTORMS IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
MAX TEMPS EACH DAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH MIN
TEMPS MID 70S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RISK OF TSRA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
TSRA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF ENC. SCT SHRA AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, ESPECIALLY FROM
KISO TO KPGV. THE TAFS HAVE BEEN TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. IT'S UNCLEAR
HOW FAR SOUTH THE TSRA RISK WILL EXTEND, AND FOR THIS REASON,
I'VE OPTED TO KEEP SHRA AND TSRA OUT OF THE TAFS FOR KOAJ AND
KEWN. BY SUNRISE THURSDAY, SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED
TO MIGRATE INLAND OFF THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY IMPACT KOAJ OR KEWN
IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS YESTERDAY. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THURSDAY, MODERATE INSTABILITY, DEEP MOISTURE, AND
INCREASED LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF TSRA
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. I'VE KEPT PROB30S IN FOR NOW, BUT
WHERE CONFIDENCE INCREASES, THESE WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT TEMPO OR PREVAILING TSRA CONDITIONS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA, A PERIOD OF SUB VFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IT'S UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE TSRA WILL
LAST, THEREFORE I'VE KEPT THE TAFS AT VFR INTO THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURS...SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK
ACROSS ENC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCE TO SEE REDUCED VIS AND CEILINGS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY IS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.
IF IT DOES RAIN THEN THERE WILL ALSO BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THREAT EACH NIGHT AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS DOWN THE NE COAST LATE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURS...SCA'S HAVE RECENTLY BEEN TAKEN DOWN ACROSS
ALL OUR WATERS THIS MORNING AS SW'RLY WINDS HAVE EASED DOWN TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AND SEAS ALONG OUR COASTAL
WATERS REMAINING AROUND 3-5 FT AS OF THIS UPDATE.
AS WE GET INTO TODAY AND TONIGHT A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH INLAND
WILL INTERACT WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE
ALLOWING SW'RLY WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KTS. WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED
TODAY, THINKING IS THAT THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS DAY WHICH WILL PRECLUDE SCA'S TODAY,
THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS OR SO ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS THAT SAW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS WILL THEN EASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KTS. SEAS
GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE TO SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
OUR WATERS AS WELL, BRINGING AT LEAST A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS THE
WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST,
EXPECT 10-20 KT SW'RLY WINDS AND WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO
OCCASIONALLY 25 KTS ACROSS OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE
SEAS PERSIST AROUND 2-4 FT. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT FOR NOW, KEEP IT NO FURTHER S THAN OUR NORTHERN ZONES
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY OUR WATERS REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL, AS INCOMING FRONT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RCF
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