166  
FXUS62 KMHX 102324  
AFDMHX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC  
724 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS AND VARIOUS UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL LEAD  
TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 130 PM THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- INCREASED RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT,  
A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS  
AND MINOR FLOODING  
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS  
THE COASTAL PLAIN, MEANWHILE THE SEA BREEZE IS SLOWLY  
PROGRESSING INLAND. BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES, SCATTERED  
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED. WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES CONVERGE  
(POSSIBLY ALONG HWY 17 FROM ONSLOW TO BEAUFORT COUNTY) THERE  
COULD BE A SWATH OF ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS. A MOIST PROFILE  
WITH LIMITED DRY AIR AT MIDLEVELS KEEPS OUR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL  
LOW, REDUCING THE CHANCES OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES ARE HIGH, SO SUB-SEVERE GUSTS OF 30-50MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN  
THE STRONGEST OF STORMS. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE RAINFALL  
TOTALS IN THE URBAN AREAS AROUND JACKSONVILLE, NEW BERN,  
GREENVILLE, AND WASHINGTON NC WHERE CONTINUOUS STORMS OVER THE  
NEXT 3-6 HOURS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING 1-3" OF RAIN WITH  
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RESULTS IN A RISK OF MINOR FLASH  
FLOODING CONCERNS, WPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL (1/5) ERO FOR TODAY.  
 
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF FORCING ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
THUNDERSTORMS IN ENC THROUGH AROUND 2AM, AT WHICH POINT ANY  
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG COASTAL AREAS AND  
OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE  
GIVEN THE NIGHTTIME STABILIZATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP.  
BEHIND THE CONVECTION TONIGHT, LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG MAY  
DEVELOP AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND WINDS DECREASE AFTER  
SUNSET.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 2 PM THURSDAY...  
A WEAK SFC LOW FORMS OFFSHORE TOMORROW, AND MEANDERS TO THE  
NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE DAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A  
BOUNDARY OF SOME SORT ATTACHED TO THIS LOW OR A WEAK TROUGH SWEEPING  
THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IF THIS TROUGH MOVES  
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, ANY COLLISION WITH THE  
DAILY SEA BREEZE COULD BE AN AREA TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL STORM  
DEVELOPMENT. IF THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH AFTER SUNSET (WHICH SOME  
MODELS INDICATE) IT WOULD RESULT IN 2 POSSIBLE WAVES OF PRECIP,  
ONCE WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND THE SECOND WITH THE NORTH TO SOUTH  
MOVING BOUNDARY. STORMS SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE, BUT ISOLATED  
INSTANCES OF MINOR FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 AM THURS...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A RATHER ACTIVE  
PATTERN ACROSS ENC THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS INLAND AND  
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OFFSHORE. UPPER LEVEL  
PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TO THE NORTH, WITH MULTIPLE TROUGHS  
TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE  
NORTHEAST, WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE OFF THE  
COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK  
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH  
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING TO BRING  
MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF FROM MIDLEVELS DOWNWARD ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA WITH LOWEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
OVERNIGHT UNLESS A STRONGER STORM CLUSTER PERSISTS AND DRIFTS  
INTO THE CWA FROM FURTHER INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. WHILE  
THERE WILL BE A LACK OF WIND SHEAR ACROSS ENC OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, 1000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN  
PLACE EACH DAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS  
WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH THE COASTAL PLAIN HAVING THE  
HIGHEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRONGER STORMS.  
 
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BACKDOOR FRONT SLOWLY  
SAGS DOWN THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BUT THERE ARE TONS OF MODEL  
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR AND HOW QUICKLY IT WILL MARCH SWARD. THIS  
REMAINS CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH MOMENTUM GETS TRANSFERRED FROM THE  
TROUGH ALOFT EXITING NECONUS AND WHERE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVES AND  
POTENTIAL MCSS LINE UP.  
 
FOR NOW, KEEPING THE BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES OF THE  
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR DIURNAL  
SUMMER TIME SHOWER AND TSTORMS IN PLACE INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.  
 
MAX TEMPS EACH DAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH MIN  
TEMPS MID 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SAT/...  
AS OF 725 PM THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- LINGERING SHRA AND TS RISK THROUGH 03-04Z  
- SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE INLAND TOMORROW MORNING  
- TSRA RISK RETURNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON  
 
PREDOMINANTLY VFR ACROSS ENC TERMINALS THIS EVENING ALBEIT WITH  
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, CURRENTLY CLOSEST TO  
OAJ AND PGV. EXPECTING SPOTTY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH AROUND 03Z WITH DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES  
AND A LOOSELY ORGANIZE BAND OF STORMS PUSHING ACROSS RDU THIS  
HOUR. STORMS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE AND MAIN HAZARD SHOULD  
BE TORRENTIAL RAIN WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS.  
 
TERMINALS DRY OUT BY 04-05Z. PREVIOUSLY NOTED SIGNAL FOR SUB-VFR  
CIGS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE LATEST RUNS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO  
REMOVE MVFR MENTIONS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN STARTING AT 08Z WITH  
SOME IFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND DAWN. THIS WILL BE SLOW TO  
BURN OFF GIVEN POOR MIXING IN THE MORNING AND THINK VFR WILL NOT  
RETURN UNTIL AROUND 14Z. BEYOND THIS, RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON, GREATEST COVERAGE FOR EWN AND OAJ.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 230 AM THURS...SEVERAL MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK  
ACROSS ENC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A  
DAILY THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS SUB-VFR  
CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCE TO SEE REDUCED VIS AND CEILINGS FROM  
THIS ACTIVITY IS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EACH DAY.  
IF IT DOES RAIN THEN THERE WILL ALSO BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS  
THREAT EACH NIGHT AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL  
RAINFALL. SLOW MOVING FRONT SAGS DOWN THE NE COAST LATE  
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...  
AS OF 230 PM THURS...A THERMAL TROUGH INLAND IS INTERACTING  
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE ALLOWING SW'RLY  
WINDS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP NEAR  
20 KTS. GIVEN THE (RELATIVELY) COOLER TEMPS TODAY, DO NOT  
EXPECT US TO REACH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 KTS FOR ANY WATERS.  
GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN EASE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT TO 10-15 KTS.  
SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 3-5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE  
WILL BE A CHANCE TO SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
ACROSS OUR WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING AT LEAST A  
THREAT FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS WITHIN ANY  
THUNDERSTORM THAT IMPACTS THE WATERS.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...  
AS OF 230 AM THURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SURFACE PATTERN  
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED  
OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF TO THE WEST,  
EXPECT 10-20 KT SW'RLY WINDS AND WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO  
OCCASIONALLY 25 KTS ACROSS OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WHILE  
SEAS PERSIST AROUND 2-4 FT. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.  
 
COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS DOWN THE COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK, BUT FOR NOW, KEEP IT NO FURTHER S THAN OUR NORTHERN ZONES  
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. EITHER WAY OUR WATERS REMAIN BELOW SCA  
CRITERIA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL, AS INCOMING FRONT WILL BE  
RATHER WEAK.  
 

 
   
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NC...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MHX  
NEAR TERM...RJ  
SHORT TERM...RJ  
LONG TERM...RCF  
AVIATION...MS/RCF  
MARINE...RCF/RJ  
 
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