260
FXUS62 KMHX 131847
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
247 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF VERY WEAK TROUGHS AND FRONTS WILL APPROACH EASTERN
NC THIS WEEK WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS 2 PM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES AT 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
A STAGNANT PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY WITH A WEAK BOUNDARIES
OVER ENC AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A
WEAK SEA BREEZE IS TRAVELLING UP THE TIDAL RIVERS AND HEAD
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORMING ALONG OR NEAR THE SEA BREEZE, WITH A RISK OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND ONE OR TWO STORMS WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-50 MPH.LACK OF SHEAR AND SOME LINGERING
MIDLEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITING PERSISTANT UPDRAFTS AND HIGHER
COVERAGE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW 90S, AND HEAT INDICES CLIMBING TO 100-105 DEGREES IN
THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD CLOSER OVERNIGHT, AND MOSTLY
CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED. THIS WILL AGAIN
COMBINE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT TO INLAND AREAS. LOWS BY TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
AS OF 230 PM SUN...ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED PULSE TSTORM
COVERAGE WITH THE SEA BREEZE MONDAY PM. HIGHS NEAR 90F INLAND,
MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 2 AM SUN...SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD AT THIS POINT AS
WE GET INTO THE DOLDRUMS OF SUMMER, BUT LIKE IN PREVIOUS DAYS
DISCUSSIONS, THE MAIN FEATURE OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE DAILY
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ENC. WILL
NOTE, WHILE WE HAVE AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT WE
SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY, WE HAVE LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATIONS WITHIN ENC THAT WILL BE
IMPACTED AS THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DAYS
SEA/RIVER/SOUND BREEZES AND EXACT TIMING OF INCOMING MID LEVEL
TROUGHS. OF ADDITIONAL NOTE WHILE POP'S EACH DAY MAY BE CLOSER
TO 40-70%, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
NATURE AT BEST.
JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MULTIPLE UPPER TROUGHS TRACKING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHERN
ATLANTIC THIS WEEK. TYPICAL PREDICTABILITY ISSUES ARE NOTED
LATER IN THE LONG TERM (THURSDAY AND BEYOND) WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES OVER THE CONUS. BUT OVERALL, THE
GENERAL PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. OUR UPPER LEVEL FEATURES OF
NOTE REMAIN RIDGING, WHICH WILL EITHER REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST OR PUSH W'WARDS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEK. WHILE
AT THE SAME TIME, TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS WILL REMAIN AT EACH SIDE
OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ONE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
OTHER IN THE SARGASSO SEA. UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF TRACKS
WEST INTO MEXICO BY MID TO LATE WEEK, WHILE THE SARGASSO SEA
UPPER LOW MOVES LITTLE. AT THE MID LEVELS, WE WILL HAVE A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON MON INTO TUE WHILE
A MID LEVEL LOW SPINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AND INTO THE GULF. WILL HAVE A FEW OTHER WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE AREA BY THIS WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, MOISTURE POOLS AND PWATS SURGE TO GREATER THAN
2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA MON/TUE AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
INCOMING SHORTWAVE PULLS MOISTURE NORTHWARDS FROM THE GULF. WITH
PWATS REMAINING ELEVATED AND HAVING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN PLACE, ANY DIURNAL SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. COMBINED WITH THE
ALREADY WET GROUND FROM PREVIOUS DAYS ACTIVITY, THERE WILL AT
LEAST BE A LOW END THREAT FOR SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT, WPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MON/TUE ACROSS OUR INLAND COUNTIES. WHILE
THERE WILL BE A LACK OF WIND SHEAR ACROSS ENC OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, 1000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE EACH DAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS WE GET LATER INTO THE WEEK,
RIDGING LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS ONCE AGAIN BRINGING
SOME UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA, THUS
LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 230 PM SUN...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TSTORMS TODAY
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IN AND
AROUND CONVECTION WHICH IS SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN, HOWEVER THE THREAT OF PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN RISE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUN...WILL HAVE A DAILY THREAT AT AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL BRING A LOW END THREAT AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS ENC. IF IT DOES RAIN, THEN
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT AT NIGHT AS WELL
FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUN...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH 2-3 FT SEAS
FORECAST. SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BRING HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS FOR INLAND SOUNDS
AND RIVERS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SUN...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM, WITH 5-15 KT S'RLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS ALL WATERS WHILE SEAS PERSIST AT 2-3 FT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN RIDGING AND
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING S'RLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO 3-4 FT
ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WILL NOTE, WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST
DOES NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, WE WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS FOR THE THURS TIMEFRAME FOR
POTENTIAL SCA'S. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
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