606
FXUS62 KMHX 141900
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF VERY WEAK TROUGHS AND FRONTS WILL APPROACH EASTERN
NC THIS WEEK WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO EASTERN NC LATE WEEK WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM MON...BENIGN EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN, AS ANY LATE AFTERNOON DIURNAL ISO SHOWERS/STORMS
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECTATION IS THAT
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS (500-1000FT) WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS WITH PATCHES OF LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE, A FEW
SHOWERS MAY SKIRT THE COAST AS WE APPROACH DAWN. WARM AND MUGGY
AGAIN WITH LOWS MID 70S INTERIOR TO UPPER 70S COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MON...SOME UPTICK IN MOISTURE EXPECTED AS LAYER MIX
RATIOS INC TO AOA 16 G/KG, INDICATIVE OF A MOISTENING ATMS.
PROHIBITING FACTOR FOR WIDESSPREAD SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL BE LACK
OF APPRECIABLE FORCING AT BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT. THEREFORE HAVE
TONED BACK THE ADVERTISED LIKELY POPS THAT THE NBM HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING, AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE HREF AND STATISTICAL MOS
GUID, WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% SCT RANGE. WHERE IT DOES RAIN
TOMORROW, INSTANCES OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED PONDING OF
WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS A TOUCH LOWER DUE TO
THE CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH HIGHS IN THE 85-90
RANGE.
LONG TERM /WED THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM MON... KEY MESSAGES...
-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND
-POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT AT THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND
PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE DAILY
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HAVE ENTERED
INTO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS ACROSS ENC. WILL NOTE, WHILE WE HAVE
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT WE SEE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY, WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT LOCATIONS WITHIN ENC THAT WILL BE IMPACTED AS THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DAYS SEA/RIVER/SOUND BREEZES AND EXACT
TIMING OF INCOMING MID LEVEL TROUGHS. SO WHILE POP'S EACH DAY MAY BE
CLOSER TO 40-70%, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN NATURE, PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH UPPER TROUGHS TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK. TYPICAL
PREDICTABILITY ISSUES ARE NOTED LATER IN THE LONG TERM (FRIDAY AND
BEYOND) WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT STRENGTH AND POSITION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES OVER THE CONUS. OUR UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE OF NOTE REMAINS RIDGING, WHICH WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST IN
THE FOLLOWING DAYS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AT THE
MID LEVELS, MULTIPLE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES TRACK ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEK AND WEEKEND, WHILE A MID LEVEL LOW
OVER FLORIDA WELL TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS INTO THE GULF. A SPOKE OF
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY LIFT NORTH FROM THIS LOW ON
TUESDAY, MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST ACROSS ENC THROUGH THE
DAY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS ONE NHC IS CURRENTLY TRACKING. THIS
FEATURE CURRENTLY HAS A 30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. EITHER WAY, THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM
ENC AND IS NO THREAT TO THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE, MOISTURE POOLS AND PWATS SURGE TO ABOUT 1.75-2.25
INCHES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS INCOMING SHORTWAVES PULL MOISTURE
NORTHWARDS FROM THE GULF AND AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL LOW TO
OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A GENERAL DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS ON TUE,
AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK NW'WARDS FROM THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. THIS IS FORECAST TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE COAST TUE MORNING, WITH THIS ACTIVITY THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND BY TUE AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS REMAINING
ELEVATED AND HAVING AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE, ANY
SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE THERE WILL BE A LACK OF WIND SHEAR ACROSS ENC
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, 1000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS FORECAST
TO BE IN PLACE EACH DAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. AS WE GET TO THE END OF
THE WEEK, SURFACE RIDGING LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS ONCE
AGAIN BRINGING A "RELATIVELY" DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARE THEN
FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS.
HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. HOTTEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES AROUND 105-110 F AND THUS
HEAT RELATED ISSUES LATE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
LONG TERM REMAIN IN THE MID 70S.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE TEMPO RESTRICTIONS TO IFR LATE
TONIGHT TO EARLY TUE, AS MORE SCT/BKN LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP AGAIN. BEST CHANCES KISO AND KPGV. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ON TUE AS A BIT MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE
COMPARED TO TODAY, AND MAY WARRANT VCSH/VCTS OR PROB30 MENTION
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING
AS THE SURFACE PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
WILL HAVE A DAILY THREAT AT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THOUGH ONE CAVEAT TO THIS
WILL BE TUE. AS RECENT TRENDS SHOW A THREAT FOR MORNING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST TO PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE DAY
AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS NW'WARDS ACROSS ENC. EITHER
WAY, THIS WILL BRING A LOW END THREAT AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS ENC OUTSIDE OF TUE WHERE THE
THREAT WOULD PERSIST ALL DAY. IF IT DOES RAIN, THEN THERE WILL
ALSO BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT AT NIGHT AS WELL FOR AREAS
THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS CONT AS SRLY TO SERLY
WINDS CONT AT 5-15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING PERIODS AS DIRUNAL
GRADIENT IS MAXIMIZED IN THE NEAR SHORE/SOUND WATERS. SOME SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROAM THE WATERS AND RIVERS ON TUE, ESP
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LONG
TERM, WITH 5-15 KT S'RLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS ALL WATERS WHILE SEAS BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-3 FT AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
RIDGING AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY ALLOWING S'RLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING SLIGHTLY TO
3-5 FT ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AN SEAS CHANGE LITTLE ON
FRI. WILL NOTE, WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY
SHOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD, WE WILL BE
MONITORING TRENDS FOR THE THURS TIMEFRAME FOR POTENTIAL SCA'S.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING,
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE CAVEAT
TO THIS WILL BE TUE, WHERE A CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FORECAST TO SET
UP ALONG OUR OFFSHORE WATERS TUE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INCOMING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WATERS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF
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