815
FXUS62 KMHX 151125
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
725 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF VERY WEAK TROUGHS AND FRONTS WILL APPROACH EASTERN
NC THIS WEEK WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO EASTERN NC LATE WEEK WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS
MORNING, MIGRATE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
- HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
COASTAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND THIS
MORNING, AND AS SURFACE HEATING INITIATES THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION, IT SEEMS LIKELY PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG
THE US 17 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
EXPECTED (40-50%) OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE COULD SEE SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS JUMP TO 2"-2.25", BUT OVERALL LACK OF
FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY ORGANIZATION TO A
MINIMUM. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND, HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER, WITH AFTERNOON READINGS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 7 AM TUE...THE GRADIENT PICKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
CLOSER TO ENC FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AFTER SOME LINGERING
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DISSIPATES THIS
EVENING, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A LONG FETCH OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, WITH ONLY WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION. INITIALLY TONIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY BE OFFSHORE, BUT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING TO 25-45% ALONG AND
EAST OF US 17. MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LOWS ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES...
-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
OUR LOWEST CHANCES TO SEE ANY PRECIP ACROSS ENC ON THURS/FRI
AS A "RELATIVELY" DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WHILE WE
HAVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT WE SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EACH DAY, WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
LOCATIONS WITHIN ENC THAT WILL BE IMPACTED AS THIS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DAYS SEA/RIVER/SOUND BREEZES AND EXACT
TIMING OF INCOMING MID LEVEL TROUGHS.
JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH UPPER TROUGHS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. TYPICAL PREDICTABILITY
ISSUES ARE NOTED LATER IN THE LONG TERM (SAT AND BEYOND) WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES OVER THE CONUS. OUR UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE OF NOTE REMAINS RIDGING, WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON WED AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST IN THE FOLLOWING
DAYS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. AT THE MID LEVELS, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART ENC
ON WED BEFORE WEAK RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON THURS/FRI
BRINGING CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND THUS LIMITING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THESE TWO DAYS. THIS MID LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A PARADE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WITH MULTIPLE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THIS WILL BRING A
DAILY THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ENC.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, AS A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURS
AND FRI AND THIS COULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ON THOSE DAYS BEFORE WE
ONCE AGAIN SEE INCREASING CHANCES AT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A LACK OF WIND SHEAR ACROSS ENC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, 1000-
2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE EACH DAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HOTTEST
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN FRI-SUN. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-110 F. AS A RESULT, HEAT RELATED ISSUES
LIKELY BEGIN EITHER ON THURS OR FRI ACROSS ENC AND PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS, PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN BY
THOSE WHO EITHER WORK OUTDOORS OR ARE PLANNING ON SPENDING AN
EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE...
SCATTERED STRATUS THAT HAS FORMED THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE OR
LIFT TO VFR LEVELS, BUT SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS SCATTERED COASTAL CONVECTION MIGRATES INLAND THROUGH
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. 30-50% CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES AND AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF US 17 LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING IN AND AROUND THESE STORMS. TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. THOUGH THE LOWEST
CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A "RELATIVELY" DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS ENC. EITHER
WAY, A LOW END THREAT AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS ENC INTO THIS WEEKEND. IF IT
DOES RAIN, THEN THERE WILL ALSO BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT
AT NIGHT AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM TUE... NO REAL CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING. YET
ANOTHER DAY OF RATHER BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
S-SW'RLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5-15 KTS ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING AS DIURNAL GRADIENT IS MAXIMIZED IN THE
NEAR SHORE/SOUND WATERS. SEAS ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS WILL
CHANGE LITTLE AS WELL, REMAINING AROUND 2-3 FT. THE ONE SPOILER
TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL BE THE ONGOING CHANCES
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUE...CONDITIONS DO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON WED AS
RIDGING ACROSS THE SUB- TROPICAL ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS AND A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW S-SW'RLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS
ON WED AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS ON
THURS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER. WINDS INCREASE
TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. THIS WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SCA CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
PAMLICO/CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS AND THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS
WHICH WILL HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR SCA'S GIVEN
THE WIND DIRECTION. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS DO EASE
SLIGHTLY AS RIDGING TO OUR EAST WEAKENS, ALLOWING SW'RLY WINDS
TO FALL FROM 15- 20 KTS ON FRI TO 10-15 KTS ON SAT. 2-3 FT SEAS
ON WED ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS INCREASE TO 3-5 FT THURS NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS WITH SEAS THEN LOWERING DOWN
TO 2-4 FT ON FRI AS WINDS EASE. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
LOWEST CHANCES TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURS/FRI.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...RCF
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