813
FXUS62 KMHX 151930
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF VERY WEAK TROUGHS AND FRONTS WILL APPROACH EASTERN
NC THIS WEEK WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO EASTERN NC LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM TUE...THE GRADIENT PICKS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
CLOSER TO ENC FROM OFFSHORE TONIGHT. AFTER SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DISSIPATES THIS EVENING,
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISO STORM FOR COASTAL COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. A LONG
FETCH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS, WITH
ONLY WEAK CONVERGENCE NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION. INITIALLY
TONIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY BE OFFSHORE, BUT COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING TO
25-45% ALONG AND EAST OF US 17. MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM TUE...A RINSE AND REPEAT DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED AS
AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL SHOWERS MIGRATE INLAND AND WITH DAYTIME
HEATING, AN UPTICK IN LIGHTNING AS DIFFUSE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS.
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
GRADIENT WILL BE MODERATELY TIGHT WITH SSWRLY WINDS OF AROUND 10
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 15+ MPH. HOT AND MUGGY AGAIN WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOWER 100'S, BUT BELOW HEAT ADV THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM /THU THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 230 AM TUE... KEY MESSAGES...
-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LOWEST CHANCES TO SEE ANY PRECIP ACROSS ENC ON THURS/FRI AS A
"RELATIVELY" DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. WHILE WE HAVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THAT WE SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EACH DAY, WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT LOCATIONS WITHIN
ENC THAT WILL BE IMPACTED AS THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE DAYS SEA/RIVER/SOUND BREEZES AND EXACT TIMING OF INCOMING
MID LEVEL TROUGHS.
JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH UPPER TROUGHS TRACKING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. TYPICAL PREDICTABILITY
ISSUES ARE NOTED LATER IN THE LONG TERM (SAT AND BEYOND) WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS AND RIDGES OVER THE CONUS. OUR UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE OF NOTE REMAINS RIDGING, WHICH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON WED AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST IN THE FOLLOWING
DAYS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WHILE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. AT THE MID LEVELS, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART ENC
ON WED BEFORE WEAK RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE AREA ON THURS/FRI
BRINGING CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND THUS LIMITING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THESE TWO DAYS. THIS MID LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A PARADE OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, PWATS GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WITH MULTIPLE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THIS WILL BRING A
DAILY THREAT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ENC.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, AS A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THURS
AND FRI AND THIS COULD LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES ON THOSE DAYS BEFORE WE
ONCE AGAIN SEE INCREASING CHANCES AT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL
BE A LACK OF WIND SHEAR ACROSS ENC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, 1000-
2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE EACH DAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. HOTTEST
TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN FRI-SUN. WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S, THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-110 F. AS A RESULT, HEAT RELATED ISSUES
LIKELY BEGIN EITHER ON THURS OR FRI ACROSS ENC AND PERSIST INTO
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THIS, PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN BY
THOSE WHO EITHER WORK OUTDOORS OR ARE PLANNING ON SPENDING AN
EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND.
LOWS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM TUE...DIURNAL SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIFT NORTH AND
WEST WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THEIR WAKE OVERNIGHT. SHOULD
NOT SEE TOO MUCH LOW CLOUDS, AS A LIGHT SRLY BREEZE AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT IFR POTETNIAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. THOUGH THE LOWEST
CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A "RELATIVELY" DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS ENC. EITHER
WAY, A LOW END THREAT AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS ENC INTO THIS WEEKEND. IF IT
DOES RAIN, THEN THERE WILL ALSO BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT
AT NIGHT AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...SSWRLY WINDS OF 5-15 KT CONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS/RIVERS, AND WILL CONT IN THIS RANGE
THROUGH WED AM. GRADIENT INC A BIT BY AFTERNOON, WITH 10-20 KT
EXPECTED, CENTERED OVER THE PAMLICO SOUND AND ROANOKE/CROATAN
CONVERGENCE ZONE. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HERE, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA
HEADLINES ATTM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DOT THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS BEGINNING THIS EVENING,
AND LASTING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WED.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM TUE...CONDITIONS DO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON WED AS
RIDGING ACROSS THE SUB- TROPICAL ATLANTIC STRENGTHENS AND A
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN. THIS WILL ALLOW S-SW'RLY WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS
ON WED AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS ON
THURS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER. WINDS INCREASE
TO 15-25 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. THIS WILL
BRING A THREAT FOR SCA CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE
PAMLICO/CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS AND THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS
WHICH WILL HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE ORIENTATION FOR SCA'S GIVEN
THE WIND DIRECTION. AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS DO EASE
SLIGHTLY AS RIDGING TO OUR EAST WEAKENS, ALLOWING SW'RLY WINDS
TO FALL FROM 15- 20 KTS ON FRI TO 10-15 KTS ON SAT. 2-3 FT SEAS
ON WED ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS INCREASE TO 3-5 FT THURS NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS WITH SEAS THEN LOWERING DOWN
TO 2-4 FT ON FRI AS WINDS EASE. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
LOWEST CHANCES TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURS/FRI.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...TL/RCF
MARINE...TL/RCF
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