629
FXUS62 KMHX 161711
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
111 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF VERY WEAK TROUGHS AND FRONTS WILL IMPACT EASTERN NC
THIS WEEK WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE. THE
HIGH BUILDS INTO EASTERN NC LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/
AS OF 111 PM WED...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A CATEGORY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, AS BANDS OF TSRA MIGRATE NEWRD THROUGH THE INNER AND
OUTER COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES. POPS RAISED TO LIKELY (60%)
CATEGORY FOR A FEW HOURS. LOWER POPS REMAIN FOR THE CRYSTAL
COAST AND CTRL/SRN OBX, AS SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY PUSHED INLAND.
NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREV DISC...AS OF 7 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES...
- HOT AND HUMID WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH WEAK TROUGHING
INLAND. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT COASTAL CONVECTION TO
TRANSITION INLAND BY LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS. MEAGER SHEAR WILL
KEEP TSTMS PULSE LIKE WITH LOW SVR THREAT. HOT AND MUGGY AGAIN
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND HEAT INDICES IN THE
LOWER 100S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM WED...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING, BECOMING MOSTLY DRY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS OFFSHORE. TEMPS NEAR CLIMO WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
-POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
JET STREAM AND A STREAM OF SHORTWAVES ARE PINNED WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE SE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THIS BRINGS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO THE CWA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH DAILY PULSE T-STORMS FUELED BY HIGH
INSTABILITY, LOW SHEAR, AND HIGH PWATS WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
BRINGING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, AND STRONG
(SUB-SEVERE) WIND GUSTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVELS KEEP RAIN CHANCES A BIT BELOW CLIMO, BUT THEN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO
AT OR ABOVE CLIMO. WITH RIDGING BUILT OVER THE REGION, THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S PAIRED WITH TDS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BRINGS APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100-110F. HEAT
WILL BE A CONCERN THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AND PROPER PRECAUTIONS
SHOULD BE TAKEN BY THOSE WHO EITHER WORK OUTDOORS OR ARE PLANNING ON
SPENDING AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU MORNING/...
AS OF 111 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH BOUTS OF SHRA AND TS WILL BRING TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOWERED CIGS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, SHRA AND STORMS DIMINISH, WITH SCT TO BKN MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND SSW BREEZE LIMITING FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT
TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION ON THU AS HIGH BUILDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WED...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH THE LOWEST
CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS ENC. EITHER
WAY, A LOW END THREAT AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS ENC INTO THIS WEEKEND. IF IT
DOES RAIN, THEN THERE WILL ALSO BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT
AT NIGHT AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM WED...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SEAS
2-3 FT. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH SSW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AS THERMAL GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. COULD SEE A
FEW GUSTS APPROACH 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER
THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND, ROANOKE/CROATAN SOUNDS BUT STILL
LOOKS TOO MARGINAL FOR SCA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS THROUGH MID MORNING, TRANSITIONING
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WED...CONDITIONS CONTINUE DETERIORATING THURS AS THE
THERMAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS FURTHER. WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR SCA
CONDITIONS, MAINLY ACROSS THE PAMLICO/CROATAN/ROANOKE SOUNDS AND THE
CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS WHICH WILL HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE
ORIENTATION FOR SCA`S GIVEN THE WIND DIRECTION. AS WE GET INTO THE
WEEKEND WINDS DO EASE SLIGHTLY AS RIDGING TO OUR EAST WEAKENS,
ALLOWING SW`RLY WINDS TO FALL FROM 15- 20 KTS ON FRI TO 10-15 KTS ON
SAT AND SUN. 2-3 FT SEAS ON WED ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS INCREASE TO
3-5 FT THURS NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS WITH SEAS THEN
LOWERING DOWN TO 2-4 FT ON FRI AND 2-3 FT FOR THE WEEKEND AS WINDS
EASE. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE LOWEST CHANCES TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURS/FRI.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
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