769
FXUS62 KMHX 161930
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN NC LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM WED...EXPECT CONVECTION TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING, BECOMING MOSTLY DRY WITH SCT SHOWERS AND
STORMS RELEGATED TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS. TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM
AND MUGGY WITH LOWS AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO, IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 330 PM WED...HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE ON THU, TRANSLATING
TO HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD RANGE, BUT OPTED OUT OF ISSUING
HEAT HEADLINES, AS VALUES WILL BE BRIEF AND NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADV AT THIS TIME. WITH THE INC IN THICKNESSES,
MUCH LESS COVG OF SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED, WITH ONLY A 20%
CHC OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, AND MAINLY
NORTH OF HWY 70.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
-POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
JET STREAM AND A STREAM OF SHORTWAVES ARE PINNED WELL TO OUR NORTH
WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE SE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. THIS BRINGS A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO THE CWA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM, WITH DAILY PULSE T-STORMS FUELED BY HIGH
INSTABILITY, LOW SHEAR, AND HIGH PWATS WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS
BRINGING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, AND STRONG
(SUB-SEVERE) WIND GUSTS. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO AT OR ABOVE CLIMO. WITH
RIDGING BUILT OVER THE REGION, FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S PAIRED WITH TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
BRINGS APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100-110F. HEAT WILL BE A
CONCERN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AND PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
TAKEN BY THOSE WHO EITHER WORK OUTDOORS OR ARE PLANNING ON
SPENDING AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME OUTSIDE LATER THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 111 PM WED...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, THOUGH BOUTS OF SHRA AND TS WILL BRING TEMPO IFR
CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN AND LOWERED CIGS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, SHRA AND STORMS DIMINISH, WITH SCT TO BKN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SSW BREEZE LIMITING FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THREAT TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION ON THU AS HIGH
BUILDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WED...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH THE LOWEST
CHANCES TO SEE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS OVERSPREADS ENC. EITHER
WAY, A LOW END THREAT AT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS ENC INTO THIS WEEKEND. IF IT
DOES RAIN, THEN THERE WILL ALSO BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS THREAT
AT NIGHT AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...SWRLY GRADIENT A BIT TIGHTER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS OF 10-20 KT, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-24 KT RANGE, AND
WILL CONT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL CONT THROUGH
TONIGHT. A THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ON THU AS HEAT BUILDS,
AND INC THE SWRLY WINDS INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE, AND A SCA HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS PAMLICO, CROATAN,
ROANOKE SOUNDS FOR THU AFTERNOON THROUGH THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS A RESULT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM WED...AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS DO EASE
SLIGHTLY AS RIDGING TO OUR EAST WEAKENS, ALLOWING SW`RLY WINDS
TO FALL FROM 15- 20 KTS ON FRI TO 10-15 KTS ON SAT AND SUN. 2-3
FT SEAS ON WED ALONG OUR COASTAL WATERS INCREASE TO 3-5 FT THURS
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS WITH SEAS THEN LOWERING
DOWN TO 2-4 FT ON FRI AND 2-3 FT FOR THE WEEKEND AS WINDS EASE.
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ135-150-158-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...OJC/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
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