366
FXUS62 KMHX 171025
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
625 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 625 AM THU...
KEY MESSAGES...
- HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING 105 DEG THIS
AFTERNOON.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFFSHORE WITH WEAK
TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL NC. HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE TODAY,
GIVING WAY TO HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE
FLIRTING WITH THE 105 DEGREE THRESHOLD RANGE, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO OPT OUT OF HEAT HEADLINES, AS VALUES WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND
NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADV AT THIS TIME. WITH THE INC
IN THICKNESSES, EXPECT MUCH LESS COVG OF SHOWERS/STORMS, WITH
ONLY A 20-30% CHC OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 210 AM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO SEE
NOCTURNAL COASTAL SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS DEVELOP LATE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS AGAIN 75-80 DEG.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 530 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
-POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
JET STREAM AND A STREAM OF SHORTWAVES ARE PINNED WELL TO OUR
NORTH WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE SE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGING BRINGS HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS AND
DIURNAL TSTORM CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND THE
THERMAL TROUGH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SIT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC FRIDAY, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL, FOCUSED ALONG THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND AND AREAS NORTH INTO AKQ'S CWA. A MOIST PROFILE
PAIRED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS FRIDAY COULD
BRING FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR WARNING
AREA IN A SLIGHT (2/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S PAIRED WITH
TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BRINGS APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
100-110F. PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN BY THOSE WHO
EITHER WORK OUTDOORS OR ARE PLANNING ON SPENDING AN EXTENDED
AMOUNT OF TIME OUTSIDE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT
THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT SW'WARD, PUTTING US ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A
SHORTWAVE RIDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, MAYBE IN
THE FORM OF AN MCS, SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PWATS GREATER THAN 2",
500MB WINDS AT 15-30KTS, AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAKES THE
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO STRONGER STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS FORCING, AS THE
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE DETERMINES WHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY THE SHORTWAVE, AND BY EXTENSION THE MCS, MOVES
THROUGH. IF THE MCS MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AND MOVES THROUGH
ENC, IT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT (2/4)
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY RIDGING WEAKENS OVER ENC WITH THE SW SHIFT OF THE HIGH,
BRINGING TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH (BUT STILL FLIRTING WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA). MONDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION, INCREASING POPS TO ABOVE CLIMO AS ADDITIONAL
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DRIES UP THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS,
BRINGING POPS DOWN AS STORM COVERAGE ALONG BOUNDARIES IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THU...PATCHY IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HWY
17. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING, RETURNING TO VFR. SW
WINDS WILL GUST 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. BUILDING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT REDUCED VIS AND
CIGS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THREAT AT NIGHT AS WELL WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS, EXACERBATED BY ANY AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
2-4 FT. A STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AS WELL AS PAMLICO, CROATAN, ROANOKE SOUNDS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS A
RESULT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS DO
EASE SLIGHTLY AS RIDGING WEAKENS, ALLOWING SW`RLY WINDS TO FALL
FROM 15- 20 KTS ON FRI TO 10-15 KTS ON SAT AND SUN. 2-4 FT SEAS
ON FRI DECREASE TO 2-3 FT FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-199-
204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ135-150-158-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ152-154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
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