353
FXUS62 KMHX 171900
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 3 PM THU...ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH LOSS
OF HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING, THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO SEE
NOCTURNAL COASTAL SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS DEVELOP LATE, SOME
DEVELOPING OVER THE OBX ZONES IN VCNTY OF THE VERY WARM PAMLICO
SOUND. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN 75-82 DEG, VERY WARM EVEN FOR MID
JULY IN ENC.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 PM THU...
KEY MESSAGES...
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH HEAT INDICES OF 105-110
DEGREES.
- FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 264 FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND POTENTIAL FLOODING DUE TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.
- A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AS WELL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 264, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL SINK SOUTH ON FRI WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AHEAD
OF IT, HEAT WILL INC AND THE STILL-OPPRESSIVE DEWPOINTS IN THE
75-80 DEGREE RANGE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. A HEAT ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF ENC AS A RESULT.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
ENC, A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEAN FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND WITH PW'S IN THE 2.25-2.5" RANGE,
A THREAT FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT. ATTM,
THINKING THAT INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN THE
CROATAN/ROANOKE/ALBEMARLE CONVERGENCE ZONE, AND THEN SPREAD
WESTWARD THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE HWY 64 AND 264
CORRIDORS. HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 264. RAINFALL RATES COULD BE QUITE INTENSE, WITH
RATES OF OVER 2" PER HOUR AT TIMES. FURTHER SOUTH, CONVECTION
WILL BE MORE SCT TO ISO IN NATURE.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD THREAT, A SEVERE RISK WILL BE PRESENT,
AGAIN MOST LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 264 WHERE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS AOA 20 KT. LARGE FAT CAPES WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING IN STORMS, AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRESENT, WET MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 530 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
-POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND.
JET STREAM AND A STREAM OF SHORTWAVES ARE PINNED WELL TO OUR
NORTH WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE SE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGING BRINGS HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS AND
DIURNAL TSTORM CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND THE
THERMAL TROUGH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S PAIRED WITH TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S BRINGS APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100-110F. PROPER
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN BY THOSE WHO EITHER WORK OUTDOORS OR
ARE PLANNING ON SPENDING AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME OUTSIDE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
SW'WARD, PUTTING US ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, MAYBE IN THE FORM OF AN MCS, SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PWATS GREATER THAN 2", 500MB WINDS AT 15-30KTS, AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY MAKES THE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO
STRONGER STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITING FACTOR IS FORCING, AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE
DETERMINES WHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THE SHORTWAVE, AND
BY EXTENSION THE MCS, MOVES THROUGH. IF THE MCS MAINTAINS ITS
STRENGTH AND MOVES THROUGH ENC, IT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR WARNING
AREA IN A SLIGHT (2/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY RIDGING WEAKENS OVER ENC WITH THE SW SHIFT OF THE HIGH,
BRINGING TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH (BUT STILL FLIRTING WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA). MONDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION, INCREASING POPS TO ABOVE CLIMO AS ADDITIONAL
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DRIES UP THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS,
BRINGING POPS DOWN AS STORM COVERAGE ALONG BOUNDARIES IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI MORNING/...
AS OF 2 PM THU...SW WINDS WILL GUST 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT HAVE A VCTS FOR KOAJ AND KEWN THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR SOME SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. TONIGHT, SUB VFR IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO SWRLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT, THOUGH MAY SEE A LOW
PROB OF MVFR STRATUS DEVELOP LATE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT REDUCED VIS AND
CIGS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THREAT AT NIGHT AS WELL WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS, EXACERBATED BY ANY AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRI/...
AS OF 3 PM THU...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
2-4 FT. A STRONGER THERMAL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TODAY, WITH SW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS PAMLICO,
CROATAN, ROANOKE SOUNDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT AS A RESULT. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW SCA
THRESHOLD BY 5AM, WITH GENERAL 10-20 KT THROUGH THE DAY FRI. INC
THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ABLEMARLE REGION AND
NORTHER WATERS NEAR AND NORTH OF OREGON INLET FOR FRI AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS DO
EASE SLIGHTLY AS RIDGING WEAKENS, ALLOWING SW`RLY WINDS TO FALL
FROM 15- 20 KTS ON FRI TO 10-15 KTS ON SAT AND SUN. 2-4 FT SEAS
ON FRI DECREASE TO 2-3 FT FOR THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 3 PM THU...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF ENC ON FRIDAY. SLOW MOVING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, AND WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING. RAIN RATES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT
TIMES, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING OF 2 TO 4
INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ029-044>047-
079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205.
FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR NCZ029-044>047-080-081-203-205.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ195-
196-199-204-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ135-150-158-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ152-154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RM/RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...TL/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX
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