775
FXUS62 KMHX 180643
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
243 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN NC THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH MID-WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 245 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES...
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH HEAT INDICES OF 105-110
DEGREES.
- FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 264 FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AS WELL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
HWY 264, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SE US
WITH WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, GRAD SINKING
SOUTHWARD. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, HEAT WILL INC AND
THE STILL-OPPRESSIVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE. HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL OF THE AREA.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SINKING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
ENC THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MEAN FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND WITH PW'S IN THE 2.25-2.5" RANGE, A THREAT
FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT. STILL LOOKS LIKE
INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN THE CROATAN/ROANOKE/ALBEMARLE
CONVERGENCE ZONE, AND THEN SPREAD WESTWARD/SOUTHWARD THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH THE HWY 64 AND 264 CORRIDORS. FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 264.
RAINFALL RATES COULD BE QUITE INTENSE, WITH RATES OF OVER 2" PER
HOUR AT TIMES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2-4" RAINFALL TOTALS, AND
LOCALLY HIGHER FOR SOME AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH, CONVECTION WILL BE
MORE SCT TO ISO IN NATURE.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLOOD THREAT, A SEVERE RISK WILL BE PRESENT,
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 264 WHERE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 20 KT. LARGE FAT CAPES WILL PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN STORMS, AND WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES PRESENT, WET MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES...
- ISOLATED SVR THREAT AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS EVENING, GRAD ENDING LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
AREAS NORTH OF HWY 70, ESP THOSE FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE
ALBEMARLE. PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE
PRECIP EARLY SAT MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA AND
THE COASTAL PLAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 530 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
-DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
-POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND.
JET STREAM AND A STREAM OF SHORTWAVES ARE PINNED WELL TO OUR
NORTH WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE SE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE RIDGING BRINGS HOT, HUMID CONDITIONS AND
DIURNAL TSTORM CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND THE
THERMAL TROUGH IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S PAIRED WITH TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S BRINGS APPARENT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 100-110F. PROPER
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN BY THOSE WHO EITHER WORK OUTDOORS OR
ARE PLANNING ON SPENDING AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF TIME OUTSIDE
INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
SW'WARD, PUTTING US ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING.
MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE, MAYBE IN THE FORM OF AN MCS, SATURDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PWATS GREATER THAN 2", 500MB WINDS AT 15-30KTS, AND
LINGERING INSTABILITY MAKES THE ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO
STRONGER STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITING FACTOR IS FORCING, AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE
DETERMINES WHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THE SHORTWAVE, AND
BY EXTENSION THE MCS, MOVES THROUGH. IF THE MCS MAINTAINS ITS
STRENGTH AND MOVES THROUGH ENC, IT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR WARNING
AREA IN A SLIGHT (2/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY RIDGING WEAKENS OVER ENC WITH THE SW SHIFT OF THE HIGH,
BRINGING TEMPS DOWN A NOTCH (BUT STILL FLIRTING WITH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA). MONDAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION, INCREASING POPS TO ABOVE CLIMO AS ADDITIONAL
FORCING IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE STORM COVERAGE. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DRIES UP THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS,
BRINGING POPS DOWN AS STORM COVERAGE ALONG BOUNDARIES IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
LIKE LAST NIGHT SOME SPOTTY LOW STRATUS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH TODAY, BRINGING WITH IT A RENEWED INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING THE THREAT OF TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS IN THE FORM OF WET MICROBURSTS.
GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED NORTH OF EWN, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. STORM THREAT MAY LINGER FOR A
FEW HOURS BEYOND 00Z SAT. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE PRECIP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING WITH IT REDUCED VIS AND
CIGS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A FOG AND LOW STRATUS
THREAT AT NIGHT AS WELL WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOIST LOW
LEVELS, EXACERBATED BY ANY AREAS THAT SEE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL
DURING THE DAYTIME.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM FRI...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT GUSTING TO
20-25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN PAMLICO
SOUND WITH SEAS 2-5 FT. SCAS CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL AS PAMLICO, CROATAN, ROANOKE SOUNDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN WATERS AND ALBEMARLE
SOUND TODAY, STALLING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRAD DIMINISH
LATER THIS MORNING, LIGHTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS 5-10 KT
AND STRONGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS 10-20 KT.
SEAS GRAD SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT. INC THREATS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND NORTHERN WATERS NEAR AND NORTH OF
OREGON INLET THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND WINDS DO
EASE SLIGHTLY AS RIDGING WEAKENS, ALLOWING SW`RLY WINDS TO FALL
TO 10-15 KTS ON SAT AND SUN. SEAS DECREASE TO 2-3 FT FOR THE
WEEKEND AND MONDAY. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 245 AM FRI...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK INTO NORTHERN
PARTS OF ENC TODAY. SLOW MOVING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, AND WITH A VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR FLOODING AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. RAIN RATES MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED 2
INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-
203>205.
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
NCZ029-044>047-080-081-203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ135-150-158-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ152-154-156.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RM/RJ
AVIATION...CQD/RJ
MARINE...CQD/RJ
HYDROLOGY...MHX
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