249
FXUS62 KMHX 030115
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
915 PM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW LOW PRESSURE WAVES EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE AN OFFSHORE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 9 PM SAT...SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPS. LARGE WAVES
ALONG THE OBX BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS HAS BROUGHT ROUGH
SURF ALONG WITH MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AROUND HIGH TIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE NC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT, TAKING WITH
IT THE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. A DRY AND VERY
PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE LOW
WITH MO CLR SKIES EXPECTED. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INTERIOR
TO THE MID 70S BEACHES, AS A STOUT NERD BREEZE OVER THE WARM
WATERS KEEPS CONDITIONS WARM AND HUMID HERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 PM...DRY COND EXPECTED TO CONT, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY TO MO CLOUDY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS BKN STRATO CU DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A DRY
BNDRY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, AND A DRY FORECAST
ENSUES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S, THOUGH TD'S ONLY IN THE 60-65
DEGREE RANGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL AMAZING, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WE HAVE BEEN HELD HOSTAGE TO AS OF
LATE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF RELIEF FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF DANGEROUS
HEAT
A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PARKED OFF THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH MUCH OF THIS COMING WEEK, ITS MOVEMENT
BEING SLOWED BY RIDGING OUT OVER THE SW ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR 1-2 DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT FORM SOUTH
OF THE ENC COAST THIS WEEK BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE.
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, THEN, THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. THIS FLOW
WILL HELP TO KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH ABOUT MID-WEEK. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE MID-80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-60S TO LOW-70S (INLAND) AND LOW-TO-MID 70S
(COAST). THIS WILL PROVIDE A MUCH-DESERVED BREAK FROM THE
DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY THAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST 7-10
DAYS. LATE THIS COMING WEEK, THE HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
BACK UP AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY.
ONE OF THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE
DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEK. ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF ANY LOW, THERE MAY BE
AREAS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE THAT DEVELOP, FAVORING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
EACH DAY THIS WILL PROBABLY BE DEPENDENT ON WHERE ANY LOW
DEVELOPS AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IT TRACKS (WHICH WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY THE LOCATION OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA MID-TO-LATE WEEK). GUIDANCE DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF ANY
LOW DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL AS WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE. IN LIGHT OF THIS, BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT A
30-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO TRY TO
REFINE WHICH DAY, OR DAYS, MAY HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE THAN OTHERS,
BUT THE KEY MESSAGE AT THIS POINT IS THAT MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK
CARRY AT LEAST A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. SHOULD
BETTER LIFT/MOISTURE SETUP ACROSS ENC, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POSE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. WPC
CURRENTLY HAS AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 IN A MARGINAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SAT...VFR COND EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NE
WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVENT FOG
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT WITH
MIXING LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU/STCU
AROUND 4-5K FT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY CIGS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 8 PM SAT...SEAS HAVE BUILT UP TO 8-11 FT NORTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT AND 4-8 FT SOUTH, WHICH IS AROUND 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN
ANY WAVE MODELS IS FORECASTING. AS SUCH, HAVE INCREASED WAVE HGT
TO BETTER MATCH CONDITIONS, AND WITH NE WINDS AND FETCH
PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HAVE ADJUSTED WAVE HGT
HIGHER THROUGH MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST WILL SLOWLY
PULL AWAY, AND WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. TO PRODUCE MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS TONIGHT AND BEYOND. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF
20-30KT WINDS AND SEAS 6-9 FT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35KT FOR ESP
THE CTRL/SRN WATERS S OF C HATTERAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE'LL
CONTINUE WITH STRONGLY-WORDED SCAS. THE NERLY GRADIENT WINDS
WILL CONT INTO SUN AS WELL. WILL DROP THE NEUSE RIVER FROM SUITE
OF SCA'S AT NOON, BUT REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL CONT WITH
15-25 KT GUSTING TO 30 KT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK THANKS TO A SERIES
OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORMING OFFSHORE AND A STRONG SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. THE STRONGER THAN NORMAL GRADIENT
(FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
PERIODS FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS EVENTUALLY DROP TO 10-20 KTS (GUSTS
TO 20-24 KNOTS) TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO FALL
OFF WITH 5-8 FOOT SEAS ON SUNDAY BECOMING 4-6 FEET ON MONDAY
(WITH SOME LINGERING 7-FOOTERS POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. SEAS DROP FURTHER TO 4-5 FEET ON
TUESDAY. SEAS/WINDS LOOK TO BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY AS A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF
THE NC COAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCA'S LATER THIS WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 830 PM SAT...SEAS OFF THE COAST HAVE BUILT 1-2 FT HIGHER
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 8-11 FT OFF THE
OUTER BANKS. WHICH, COMBINED WITH NE WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT, HAS
BROUGHT VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS WITH BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE AS HIGH AS
AROUND 8 FT AND HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE LARGE WAVES ALSO BROUGHT MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOTELS
ON THE NORTH END OF BUXTON. THIS AREA IS VULNERABLE DUE TO LACK
OF DUNE STRUCTURE. WITH LARGE WAVES AND STRONG NE WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH IN THIS
SAME AREA, AS WELL AS OTHER VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG EAST FACING
BEACHES OF HATTERAS ISLAND (I.E. RODANTHE), THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE. THE HIGH TIDE IS AT 3:50 PM AT CAPE
HATTERAS AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE.
THE WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL OVERWASH WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM 2-6 PM.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ131-230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ135-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RM/ZC
AVIATION...RM/SK/TL
MARINE...RM/SK/TL/ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page