080
FXUS62 KMHX 030702
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
302 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW LOW PRESSURE WAVES EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE AN OFFSHORE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 0230 SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE NC COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY FORECAST IN PLACE FOR
THE FA THOUGH SOME OVERZEALOUS SHOWERS ROTATING ABOUT THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF OBX. SELECT HIRES GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWER POTENTIAL WORKING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS
SERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS LIMITED MIDLEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE
DEEP SOUTH TRAVELS OVER THE COLD WEDGE AT THE SFC LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE MOSTLY DISCOUNTED THIS CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE
MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE, BUT IT IS A NONZERO CHANCE. CLEAR
SKIES INLAND WITH DEBRIS CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE COAST EARLY
BEFORE HEATING LEADS TO BROKEN STRATO CU FIELD DEVELOPING. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, THOUGH TDS ONLY IN THE 60-65 DEGREE
RANGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CRISP FOR AUG, ESPECIALLY AFTER
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THE FA'S BEEN SUBJECTED TO AS
OF LATE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 0245 SUNDAY...B-E-A-UTIFUL NIGHT IN STORE WITH NEERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO USHER IN COOL DRY AIR. SKIES CLEAR FROM W TO
E THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN
LIKELY FOR OBX. MINTS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT, LOW 60S
COASTAL PLAIN, UPPER 60S LOW 70S INNER BANKS, MID 70S OBX.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK
A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH NOTABLY STRONG MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITHIN THIS REGIME, THE DRIER AIRMASS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S (SO
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
MID TO LATE-WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VALLEY, AND AS RIDGING SETS UP FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. DURING THIS TIME,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR A BLOCKY
PATTERN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WITHIN THIS REGIME, THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY,
WHICH WILL HELP TO DRAW A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE
GULF AND SW ATLANTIC NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE, THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING
BACK NORTH, PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELPING
SUPPORT WEAK DESTABILIZATION. AT A MINIMUM, THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DAILY RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OF NOTE, MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE ATLANTIC MAY BEGIN TO "WAKE UP" SO TO SPEAK AS WE MOVE INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION (MDR)
WILL BE A POTENTIAL CANDIDATE FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY, IT IS ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SIGNAL CLOSER TO
HOME FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. AS WE OFTEN REMIND FOLKS
THIS TIME OF YEAR, PLEASE BE CAREFUL NOT TO LOCK INTO ONE RUN OF ONE
MODEL, AS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED. AT THIS
POINT, THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THROUGH THE WEEK
IN CASE THIS RISK WERE TO INCREASE.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0115 SUNDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVENT
FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS WILL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT
WITH MIXING LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN
CU/STCU AROUND 4-5K FT. RINSE AND REPEAT FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
SKIES CLEARING FROM W TO E WITH SUNSET, GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED OVER OBX WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS EJECTED FROM THE LOW
OFFSHORE SKIRT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY THANKS
TO A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THE RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL AWAY, AND SHIFT FURTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST, LEADING TO STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUING EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE ENC
WATERS, WITH NE TO N WINDS OF 15-30KT AND SEAS OF 8-10FT. FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT, SEAS WILL BE LOWER (3-6FT). BY
TONIGHT, SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 6-8 FT NORTH OF LOOKOUT, AND 2-
5FT TO THE SOUTH. A DECREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS THROUGH
TODAY. LATER THIS EVENING, THOSE SCAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF FOR THE
INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT TO SMALL CRAFT
BEING FOCUSED ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEEK FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS POTENTIALLY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE NC COAST EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO LAY DOWN SOME.
HOWEVER, A MODEST GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY THANKS TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDING
SOUTH, LEADING TO A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A BROAD
FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LATER IN THE WEEK, WE'LL
BE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THAT FRONTAL ZONE. SHOULD A LOW DEVELOP, THIS COULD LEAD TO
THE RETURN OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS, AS WELL AS AN INCREASED RISK
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 830 PM SAT...SEAS OFF THE COAST HAVE BUILT 1-2 FT HIGHER
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 8-11 FT OFF THE
OUTER BANKS. WHICH, COMBINED WITH NE WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT, HAS
BROUGHT VERY ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS WITH BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE AS HIGH AS
AROUND 8 FT AND HAVE ISSUED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
THE LARGE WAVES ALSO BROUGHT MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOTELS
ON THE NORTH END OF BUXTON. THIS AREA IS VULNERABLE DUE TO LACK
OF DUNE STRUCTURE. WITH LARGE WAVES AND STRONG NE WINDS
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY, EXPECT MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH IN THIS
SAME AREA, AS WELL AS OTHER VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG EAST FACING
BEACHES OF HATTERAS ISLAND (I.E. RODANTHE), THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE. THE HIGH TIDE IS AT 3:50 PM AT CAPE
HATTERAS AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE.
THE WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL OVERWASH WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM 2-6 PM.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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