938
FXUS62 KMHX 031430
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW LOW PRESSURE WAVES EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE AN OFFSHORE BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 1030 AM SUN...NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED WITH AM UPDATE. INC
SKY COVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE PARTLY SUNNY CATEGORY AS
STRATO CU WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
PREV DISC... AS OF 0230 SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF THE
NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE FOR THE FA THOUGH THERE ARE TWO LOW, BUT NON- ZERO
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FIRST, SOME OVERZEALOUS SHOWERS ROTATING ABOUT
THE OFFSHORE LOW MAY SKIRT PORTIONS OF OBX. SECONDLY, SELECT
HIRES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPOTTY SHOWER POTENTIAL WORKING FROM
SW TO NE ACROSS SERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS LIMITED MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE OFF THE DEEP SOUTH TRAVELS OVER THE COLD WEDGE AT THE
SFC LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE MOSTLY DISCOUNTED BOTH OF THESE
CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE MAJORITY OF THE COLUMN WILL BE, BUT IT
IS WORTH MENTIONING HERE. CLEAR SKIES INLAND WITH DEBRIS CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER THE COAST EARLY BEFORE HEATING LEADS TO BROKEN
STRATO CU FIELD DEVELOPING. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, THOUGH
TDS ONLY IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CRISP
FOR AUG, ESPECIALLY AFTER THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THE
FA'S BEEN SUBJECTED TO AS OF LATE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 0245 SUNDAY...B-E-A-UTIFUL NIGHT IN STORE WITH NEERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO USHER IN COOL DRY AIR. SKIES CLEAR FROM W TO
E THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THOUGH DEBRIS CLOUDS
REMAIN LIKELY FOR OBX. MINTS VERY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY NIGHT, LOW
60S COASTAL PLAIN, UPPER 60S LOW 70S INNER BANKS, MID 70S OBX.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK
A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH NOTABLY STRONG MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITHIN THIS REGIME, THE DRIER AIRMASS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S (SO
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
MID TO LATE-WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VALLEY, AND AS RIDGING SETS UP FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. DURING THIS TIME,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR A BLOCKY
PATTERN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WITHIN THIS REGIME, THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY,
WHICH WILL HELP TO DRAW A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE
GULF AND SW ATLANTIC NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE, THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING
BACK NORTH, PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELPING
SUPPORT WEAK DESTABILIZATION. AT A MINIMUM, THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DAILY RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OF NOTE, MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE ATLANTIC MAY BEGIN TO "WAKE UP" SO TO SPEAK AS WE MOVE INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE MAIN DEVELOPMENT REGION (MDR)
WILL BE A POTENTIAL CANDIDATE FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY, IT IS ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW A SIGNAL CLOSER TO
HOME FOR LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. AS WE OFTEN REMIND FOLKS
THIS TIME OF YEAR, PLEASE BE CAREFUL NOT TO LOCK INTO ONE RUN OF ONE
MODEL, AS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED. AT THIS
POINT, THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL. STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THROUGH THE WEEK
IN CASE THIS RISK WERE TO INCREASE.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 0715 SUNDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NE WINDS AROUND 5-10KT EARLY BECOMING GUSTY TO AROUND
20 KT WITH MIXING LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH SCT-
BKN CU/STCU AROUND 4-5K FT. RINSE AND REPEAT FOR SUN NIGHT WITH
SKIES CLEARING FROM W TO E WITH SUNSET, GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE
EXPECTED OVER OBX WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS EJECTED FROM THE LOW
OFFSHORE SKIRT THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY THANKS
TO A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
THE RISK OF SHRA AND TSRA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF SUB VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUN/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY, AND SHIFT FURTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST, LEADING TO STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE ENC WATERS, WITH NE TO N WINDS OF
15-30KT AND SEAS OF 8-10FT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT, SEAS WILL BE LOWER (3-6FT). BY TONIGHT, SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO 6-8 FT NORTH OF LOOKOUT, AND 2- 5FT TO THE
SOUTH. A DECREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST WATERS THROUGH
TODAY. LATER THIS EVENING, THOSE SCAS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF
FOR THE INLAND RIVERS AND SOUNDS, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT TO
SMALL CRAFT BEING FOCUSED ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 200 AM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS POTENTIALLY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE NC COAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO LAY DOWN
SOME. HOWEVER, A MODEST GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
BUILDING SOUTH, LEADING TO A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
IT AND A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LATER
IN THE WEEK, WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE ALONG THAT FRONTAL ZONE. SHOULD A LOW
DEVELOP, THIS COULD LEAD TO THE RETURN OF ELEVATED WINDS AND
SEAS, AS WELL AS AN INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 700 AM SUNDAY...
SEAS OFF THE COAST HAVE BUILT 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE OFF THE OUTER BANKS.
WHICH, COMBINED WITH NE WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT, HAS BROUGHT VERY
ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
WITH BREAKING WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE AS HIGH AS AROUND 8 FT. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING TO
COVER THIS HAZARD.
THE LARGE WAVES ALSO BROUGHT MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MOTELS ON THE NORTH END OF BUXTON. THIS AREA IS VULNERABLE DUE
TO A LACK OF DUNE STRUCTURES. WITH LARGE WAVES AND STRONG NE
WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE, WE EXPECT
MINOR OCEAN OVERWASH IN THIS SAME AREA, AS WELL AS OTHER
VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG EAST FACING BEACHES OF HATTERAS ISLAND
(I.E. RODANTHE). THE HIGH TIDE IS AT 3:50 PM AT CAPE HATTERAS
AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE, BUT
THE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, GIVING A NET OUTCOME OF VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TODAY AS WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. THE
WINDOW FOR POTENTIAL OVERWASH WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM 2-7 PM LOCAL.
IN LIGHT OF THIS, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OCEANSIDE AREAS OF HATTERAS ISLAND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ203-205.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ131-
230.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...RM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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