692
FXUS62 KMHX 040028
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
828 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NE SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO MIDWEEK WITH A FEW LOW PRESSURE WAVES EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE AN OFFSHORE BOUNDARY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 8 PM SUN...FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA AND HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT WITH THE
EVENING UPDATE. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME THINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT SO
FORECAST MINT MAY STILL BE GOOD BUT DID SLOW THE RATE OF COOLING
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HAVE CANCELLED THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
AS SEAS ARE SUBSIDING WITH BREAKING WAVES LESS THAN 8 FT. WE
DID SEE SOME VERY MINOR OVERWASH AT BUXTON THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY AND IT DIDN'T IMPACT NC-12 TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...B-E-A-UTIFUL NIGHT IN STORE WITH NEERLY
BREEZES CONTINUING TO USHER IN COOL DRY AIR. SELF DESTRUCTIVE
DAYTIME STRATO CU WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SUNSHINE, BUT SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INTRUDE ON ENC FROM THE SW. ATTM, HAVE
LOWS FCST 60-65 INTERIOR TO 70-75 IMMEDIATE COAST. IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE A BIT THICKER THAN EXPECTED,
FORECAST LOWS WOULD BE A TOUCH ON THE COOL SIDE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM SUN...WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRES WELL
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES ANCHORED TO THE NORTH, SUPPLYING ENC WITH
NERLY BREEZES AND COOLER/DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS. TEMPS
WILL MODERATE A BIT, AND RISE INTO THE MID 80S, THOUGH TD'S WILL
REMAIN IN THE 60S MAKING IT FEEL QUITE GORGEOUS OUTSIDE. DIURNAL
STRATO CU WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN, BUT PERHAPS NOT AS DENSE OF
COVERAGE AS WAS SEEN TODAY, AND HENCE CONTRIBUTING TO THE WARMER
TREND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK
A DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH NOTABLY STRONG MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITHIN THIS REGIME, THE DRIER AIRMASS AND SOMEWHAT COOLER LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. NORMAL LOWS THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK,
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S (SO
ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
MID TO LATE-WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS
TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VALLEY, AND AS RIDGING SETS UP FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. DURING THIS TIME,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR A BLOCKY
PATTERN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.
WITHIN THIS REGIME, THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY,
WHICH WILL HELP TO DRAW A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE
GULF AND SW ATLANTIC NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AT THE
SURFACE, THE FRONTAL ZONE TO OUR SOUTH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING
BACK NORTH, PROVIDING BETTER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HELPING
SUPPORT WEAK DESTABILIZATION. AT A MINIMUM, THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE
DAILY RETURN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE AMOUNTS AND TIMING OF RAINFALL REMAIN UNCERTAIN WITH
THERE BEING DECENT SPREAD BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS,
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING MID-TO-LATE WEEK. WPC
CURRENTLY HAS AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 70 IN A MARGINAL ERO FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL ERO FOR
THURSDAY. THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
OF FURTHER NOTE, MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE ATLANTIC MAY BEGIN TO "WAKE UP" SO TO SPEAK
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE MAIN
DEVELOPMENT REGION (MDR) WILL BE A POTENTIAL CANDIDATE FOR
TROPICAL ACTIVITY, IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A SIGNAL CLOSER TO HOME FOR LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. AS WE OFTEN REMIND FOLKS THIS TIME OF
YEAR, PLEASE BE CAREFUL NOT TO LOCK INTO ONE RUN OF ONE MODEL,
AS SIGNIFICANT RUN-TO-RUN CHANGES CAN BE EXPECTED. AT THIS
POINT, THE MAIN TAKEAWAY IS TO BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THROUGH THE
WEEK IN CASE THIS RISK WERE TO INCREASE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUN...VFR FLIGHT CATS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BKN-OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL FILTER OVERHEAD ENC
OVERNIGHT AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LIGHT NE WINDS TONIGHT, THEN COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KT MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING AS MIXING DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, WILL
BECOME LESS GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY THANKS TO A DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN RETURNING
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SHRA AND
TSRA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 8 PM SUN...CURRENTLY SEEING NE WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS AROUND 5-8 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA ALLOWING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TO RELAX. NO CHANGES NECESSARY FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 2 PM SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS TO LINGER INTO EARLY WEEK FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS POTENTIALLY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE NC COAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO LAY DOWN
SOME THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, A MODEST
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY THANKS
TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND BUILDING SOUTH, LEADING
TO A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A BROAD FRONTAL
ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. LATER IN THE WEEK, WE'LL BE
WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THAT FRONTAL ZONE. SHOULD A LOW DEVELOP, THIS COULD LEAD
TO THE RETURN OF ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS, AS WELL AS AN
INCREASED RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203>205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RM/ZC
AVIATION...RM/SK/TL/ZC
MARINE...RM/SK/TL/ZC
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