949
FXUS62 KMHX 041111
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
711 AM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND/OR INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 0700 MONDAY...WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TS DEXTER
WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES ANCHORED TO THE N/NE, SUPPLYING ENC
WITH NERLY BREEZES AND COOLER/DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND
A PRECIP FREE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ALOFT FROM OFF THE GULF, BUT AS A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE AND SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE W,
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FA TO
THE NW. SOME RADAR RETURNS ON RADAR ON POSSIBLE BUT DOUBTFUL
ANYTHING REACHES THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT THOUGH
TDS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S CONTINUING THE FALL-ESQUE
FEEL WE'VE ENJOYED THE LAST FEW DAYS. DIURNAL STRATO CU WILL
FORM ONCE AGAIN, BUT PERHAPS NOT AS DENSE OF COVERAGE AS WAS
SEEN SUNDAY, HENCE THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAXTS; LOW TO MID 80S
MOST, ~80 OBX.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
AS OF 0245 MONDAY...TROUGH ALOFT W OF THE APPS WITH RIDGING
EXPANDING FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC LEADS TO MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW
ALOFT BUT THE JET WILL REMAIN N OF THE FA. AT THE SFC, COOL HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER
IN FROM THE N THROUGH THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE COLUMN, KEEPING ANY
PRECIP CHANCES UNMENTIONABLE. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVERAGE FORECAST TO PERSIST AS DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT WELL TO THE SW ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA, AGAIN DAMPENING COOLING POTENTIAL. MINTS SLIGHTLY
WARMER, MID 60S COASTAL PLAIN, UPPER 60S-LOW 70S INNER BANKS,
MID-UPPER 70S OBX.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
- WET CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COOL
NE FLOW PERSISTING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TUESDAY,
AND THEN MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS STILL
IN THE 60S, IT WILL STILL FEEL PLEASANT WITH "LOW" HUMIDITY. WE
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TUESDAY ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC COAST, AND PERHAPS AS FAR INLAND
AS DUPLIN AND ONSLOW COUNTIES. BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL YIELD AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY DRIVEN BY SEA/SOUND BREEZES.
WE'LL ENTER A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD THURSDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH AND/OR
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORM. THE BEST CHANCES (55-65%) FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT WE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNINGS THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGHING MAY BREAK DOWN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN, BUT HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RETURN.
AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 0700 MONDAY...VFR FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST WITH LOWER OFFSHORE CLOUD DECK
SKIRTING PORTIONS OF OBX AND SERN COAST. NNEERLY WINDS CONTINUE
MONDAY, BUT NOT AS STOUT OR GUSTY THE WEEKEND, CARRYING 15KT
GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS FALLING
OUT AFTER 18/19Z. WINDS SUBTLY VEER TO BECOME MORE EERLY THIS
EVENING, BUT BACK TO N WHILE CALMING OVERNIGHT. DIURNAL
STRATOCU FIELD EXPECTED AGAIN BUT WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK, INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK COASTAL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- IMPROVING BUT STILL HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS MORNING TO NE 15-20 KTS,
BUT HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE AT 6-7 FT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN TODAY, BECOMING 10-15 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEN
WINDS MAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
AS WELL TODAY, DROPPING BELOW 6 FT FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. 6 FOOT SEAS LIKELY HANG ON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS AROUND CAPE HATTERAS THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT,
WITH THE SURROUNDING WATERS 3-5 FT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY MIDWEEK
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AT 10-15 KTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY TO 15-20 KTS. WINDS BECOME ENE THURSDAY AT 15-20
KTS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE AT 3-5
FT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY INCREASE TO 4-6 FT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NE WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT
SEAS PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
TO OUR SOUTH TO DEEPEN SOMETIME MIDWEEK, WHICH WOULD TIGHTEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY, AND LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ150-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/CEB
MARINE...SGK
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