146
FXUS62 KMHX 041900
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT MON AUG 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND/OR INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 225 PM MON...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER TROUGHING OVER
THE APPALACHIANS, WITH RIDGING EXPANDING FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC
LEADING TO MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW ALOFT. WHILE AT THE SFC, COOL
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH, KEEPING NE
FLOW AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE. SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISO COASTAL SHOWER EARLY TUE MORNING. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE FORECAST TO PERSIST AS DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLED FRONT WELL TO THE SW
ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. CLOUD COVER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT
FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS, FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN,
AND UPPER 60S-LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
AS OF 225 PM MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM
THE NORTH, KEEPING NE FLOW AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO TICK UP THROUGH THE DAY, ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISO SHOWERS, WITH
THE BULK LIKELY REMAINING OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S, WITH DEWPOINTS STILL
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE (IN THE 60S) FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM MON...MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INC POPS FOR THE THU-SAT
TIMEFRAME, AS MODELS COMING INTO ALIGNMENT ON WET PERIOD OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING ENC. MAIN QUESTION IS
ORGANIZATION OF A POTENTIAL LOW PRES AREA OFF THE SE COAST.
ATTM, PROBS FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM ARE ~30%.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE 04/12Z GLOBAL SUITE STILL DIFFER ON
STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK, BUT WHAT REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IS
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER, WITH BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING, AS THE REGION REMAINS IN A 'MARGINAL' ERO.
PREV DISC...AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
- WET CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH COOL NE
FLOW PERSISTING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, IT WILL STILL
FEEL PLEASANT WITH "LOW" HUMIDITY. BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING
FOR WEDNESDAY WILL YIELD AROUND A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON, MOSTLY DRIVEN BY SEA/SOUND BREEZES.
WE'LL ENTER A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD THURSDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH AND/OR
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORM. THE BEST CHANCES (55-65%) FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT WE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNINGS THROUGH SATURDAY. TROUGHING MAY BREAK DOWN AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN, BUT HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RETURN.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUE/...
AS OF 225 PM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DRIER AIR SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK, INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK COASTAL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM MON...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS WITH SEAS HOVERING AROUND 6 FT.
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 10-15 KT GUSTING 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 5-6
FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH, KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE
NE FLOW OVER THE WATERS. SEAS STILL HOVERING AROUND 6 FT FOR THE
OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS, SO WILL HOLD ONTO SCAS
THROUGH THIS EVE BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL EARLY. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TUE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MON...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN BY MIDWEEK
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY TO 15-20 KTS. WINDS BECOME ENE THURSDAY
AT 15-20 KTS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
AT 3-5 FT WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY INCREASE TO 4-6 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING NE WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 FT SEAS
PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO
OUR SOUTH TO DEEPEN SOMETIME MIDWEEK, WHICH WOULD TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY, AND LEAD TO THE THREAT FOR HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...TL/SGK
AVIATION...CQD/SGK
MARINE...CQD/SGK
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