627
FXUS62 KMHX 050611
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
211 AM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND/OR INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 120 AM TUESDAY...RIDGING CONTINUES TO OUR NORTH, RESULTING
IN WEAK NE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. TO OUR SOUTH, A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP OF THE SC/GA/FL COAST.
MEANWHILE, CLOSER TO HOME A BROAD AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS RESULTING IN LIGHT ELEVATED RAIN APPROACHING THE COASTAL
PLAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIP IS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE
GROUND GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS, BUT STILL HAVE A 15-20%
CHANCE OF RAIN IN GRIDS FOR WESTERN EXTENT OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS IN CASE SOME WEAK SHOWERS MAKE IT TO
THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, A QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT WITH TEMPS
IN THE 60S FOR MOST AROUND SUNRISE.
TODAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH,
KEEPING NE FLOW AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. MOISTURE BEGINS TO
TICK UP THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISO SHOWERS,
WITH THE BULK LIKELY REMAINING OFFSHORE, WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH THE CRYSTAL COAST. TEMPS WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S, WITH
DEWPOINTS STILL FAIRLY COMFORTABLE (60S TO LOW 70S) FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 130 AM TUESDAY...RIDGING TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO WEAKEN
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER, CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MOST. DEWPOINTS ARE 3-5F HIGHER TUESDAY
NIGHT COMPARED TO CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW, MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
MORE HUMID OUT THERE, BUT STILL PLEASANT CONSIDERING THE TIME OF
THE YEAR. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND, MID 70S FOR
BEACHES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
- WET CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
- A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE
AROUND 30%.
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO HANG ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOL NE
FLOW PERSISTING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE 60S, IT WILL STILL
FEEL PLEASANT WITH "LOW" HUMIDITY. BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVING WILL
YIELD PRECIP CHANCES AROUND A 30-50% WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 70.
WE'LL ENTER A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD THURSDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH AND/OR
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORM. THE BEST CHANCES (60-70%) FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT WE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNINGS AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY.
TROUGHING SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFFSHORE. A HUMID
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP CHANCES (40-50%) FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 140 AM TUESDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD AGAIN LIMIT FOG THREAT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR TERMINALS FROM EWN SOUTH. TUESDAY NIGHT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES A TAD, BRINGING LOW END (20-30%)
CHANCES FOR DROPS TO MVFR CIGS. FOR NOW KEPT TAF MENTIONS TO
FEW030, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK, INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK COASTAL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
TODAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO NE 10-15 KTS. WINDS THEN GENERALLY
CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY 3-5 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN BY THURSDAY
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AT AROUND 10-15 KTS. WINDS
STRENGTHEN EARLY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO ENE/E
15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE SEAS WILL BUILD TO
6-8 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS TO THE REGION IF IT CAN DEVELOP/DEEPEN BEFORE MOVING
ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK
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