867
FXUS62 KMHX 051954
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
354 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW AND THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TO ENC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS 2 PM TUESDAY...SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH, WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOW- TO MID-80S WITH
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 WITH AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED IN SC MOVING NE TOWARDS OUR CWA. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
AND A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER ARE
SUSTAINING THIS ACTIVITY FOR NOW, BUT A LESS IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA MAY HELP AID IN WEAKENING
THIS CONVECTION BEFORE IT REACHES OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER-60S
TO LOW-70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MID-70S AT THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...TOMORROW WE'LL RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ENHANCED LIFT, COUPLED
WITH HIGH PWATS (2-2.5"), WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL (1-1.5") IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OR TRAINING CELLS. GIVEN THE UPWARD
TREND IN QPF, WPC HAS UPGRADED OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THE REST OF
THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4). MLCAPE OF 1000-1200
J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IS MORE PRESSING THAN THE SEVERE
THREAT. IF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ARE MORE SPARSE AND WE'RE
ABLE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE, THE SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE.
HIGHS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH GREATER PRECIP
COVERAGE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID-80S AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
- WET CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
- A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE
AROUND 40%.
WE'LL ENTER A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD THURSDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH AND/OR
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORM. THE BEST CHANCES (60-70%) FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT WE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNINGS AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY FOCUS AROUND A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST ELEVATING CHANCES FOR MORE SUSTAINED
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TROUGHING SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFFSHORE. A HUMID
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP CHANCES (40-50%) FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3:30 PM TUESDAY...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY FOR TERMINALS FROM
EWN SOUTH. TONIGHT, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES A TAD, BRINGING
LOW END (20-30%) CHANCES FOR DROPS TO MVFR CIGS. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER TO 2000-3500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT, INCREASING IN COVERAGE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOW CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WITH POPS INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...THURSDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK, INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A WEAK COASTAL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3:40 PM TUESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, 3-5 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS,
AND AROUND 4 FT TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN BY THURSDAY
WINDS STRENGTHEN EARLY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO
ENE/E 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 6-8 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE REGION IF IT CAN DEVELOP/DEEPEN
BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...OJC/RJ
MARINE...OJC/SGK
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