204
FXUS62 KMHX 052315
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW AND THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TO ENC.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS 7 PM TUE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR TERM POP'S
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SW'RN ZONES, (LENOIR/DUPLIN/JONES, AND
ONSLOW COUNTIES) GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS KEEPING SCHC TO CHC
POP'S AROUND SLIGHTLY LONGER INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ENC DRIES
OUT. ON TOP OF THIS, ALSO TOOK OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING GIVEN LACK OF INSTABILITY AND CURRENT EXPECTATION FOR
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
PREV DISC...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND MID-70S AT THE
BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...TOMORROW WE'LL RETURN TO A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ENHANCED LIFT, COUPLED
WITH HIGH PWATS (2-2.5"), WILL SUPPORT INCREASING POPS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL (1-1.5") IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS OR TRAINING CELLS. GIVEN THE UPWARD
TREND IN QPF, WPC HAS UPGRADED OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES TO A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THE REST OF
THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4). MLCAPE OF 1000-1200
J/KG MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLOODING IS MORE PRESSING THAN THE SEVERE
THREAT. IF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ARE MORE SPARSE AND WE'RE
ABLE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE, THE SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE.
HIGHS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO WITH GREATER PRECIP
COVERAGE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID-80S AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 PM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
- WET CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
- A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE
AROUND 40%.
WE'LL ENTER A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD THURSDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH AND/OR
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORM. THE BEST CHANCES (60-70%) FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT WE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNINGS AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY FOCUS AROUND A BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST ELEVATING CHANCES FOR MORE SUSTAINED
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TROUGHING SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM OFFSHORE. A HUMID
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP CHANCES (40-50%) FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM TUE...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PERSIST ACROSS ENC
THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 4.5 KFT AND
VISIBILITIES GREATER THAN 7 MILES NOTED. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
CREEPING UP INTO DUPLIN AND LENOIR COUNTIES SO HAVE ADDED IN A
MENTION OF LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF CYCLE
ACROSS OAJ/ISO. LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ONGOING
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
SOUTH OF HWY 264 KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BACKED OFF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVE IN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER ABOUT
06Z. SO WHILE A SCT/FEW DECK OF MVFR CEILINGS REMAINS IN THE
TAFS AFTER ABOUT 06Z, THINK MVFR CEILINGS NOW HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 12Z WED. WILL NOTE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME NON IMPACTFUL GROUND FOG AT SOME OF THE
SITES THAT SAW RAIN TODAY AFTER 06Z, BUT CHANCES CURRENTLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 20% FOR FOG TO OCCUR SO HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF
THIS TAF CYCLE. AS WE GET INTO LATE WED MORNING, THINK MVFR
CEILINGS (2-3 KFT) BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM SW TO NE
AND HAVE ADDED THIS INTO ALL TAF SITES. LOWER CLOUDS THEN STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH POPS INCREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...THURSDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK, INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A WEAK COASTAL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3:40 PM TUESDAY...WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY AT 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE 2-4
FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS, 3-5 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS,
AND AROUND 4 FT TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN BY THURSDAY
WINDS STRENGTHEN EARLY THURSDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TO
ENE/E 15-20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 6-8 FT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO THE REGION IF IT CAN DEVELOP/DEEPEN
BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK
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