630
FXUS62 KMHX 060653
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
253 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AND THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE UNSETTLED. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
TO ENC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS 2 AM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TODAY, SOME OF WHICH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTORMS.
INLAND, SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
ALONG A BROAD AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE CAD REGIME. THIS
PRECIP MAY BLEED INTO OUR COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
CAD ASSOCIATED PRECIP. ALONG THE COAST HOWEVER, SHOWERS
IMMEDIATELY ON THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WHERE
INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER MAY SEE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES
RESULTING IN ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.
THIS AFTERNOON, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NC,
WITH DECENT VORTICITY ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF IT. A STAGNANT N-S
ORIENTED LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAD ENVIRONMENT, BECOMING INVIGORATED
BY THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THEN
PROGRESSING EAST WITH THE TROUGH. AS LONG AS THE LINE OF PRECIP
REMAINS STATIONARY, LONG, SKINNY MLCAPES AT OR ABOVE 1.5 KJ/KG
IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. 00Z
HREF GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG OUR
BORDER WITH RALEIGH'S CWA, WITH THE CENTER OF THE AXIS TO OUR
WEST CLOSER TO I-95. WHILE THERE IS ALWAYS A LARGER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY ON WHO WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL WHEN IT IS ALL
DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF A BOUNDARY, THE TIMING OF THE MID-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SUGGESTS A LOWER-END THREAT FOR HIGH
RAINFALL TOTALS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING, WITH A HIGHER
THREAT FURTHER WEST. IF THE BOUNDARY SETS UP SHOP OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HOWEVER, THAT WOULD BRING A
HIGHER THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS A SECONDARY,
LESS LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS POINT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH TSTORM CHANCES TRENDING DOWN
INLAND AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE PRECIP WILL
LINGER EAST OF HWY 17, IMPACTS LOOK TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME.
ALONG AND WEST OF 17, AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT,
ALTHOUGH FCST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
IMPACTFUL FOG DEVELOPMENT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
- WET CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
- A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE
AROUND 40%.
WE'LL ENTER A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD THURSDAY AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH AND/OR
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORM. THE BEST CHANCES (60-70%) FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT WE
CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE MORNINGS AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. LATEST TRENDS SHOW
THE LOW PASSING BY OFFSHORE OF THE OBX SATURDAY, WHICH MAY BRING
DRIER CONDITIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED, AS DRIER AIR IS
FORCED SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
TROUGHING SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE SCATTERED (35-50%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND THEN LOW 90S TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR MOST EARLY THIS MORNING AS
CEILINGS ARE HOVERING AT 4-6KFT AS WE ARE AWAY FROM THE WORST OF
THE CAD SETUP. LATER THIS MORNING, MVFR CHANCES INCREASE AS
EASTERLY FLOW USHERS IN MORE MOIST AIR. INLAND LOCALES WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. TSTORM AND
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BRINGING DROPS TO CIGS AND VIS WITH IT. DROPS TO IFR/LIFR CIGS
IN THE CARDS TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ONCE SHOWERS ABATE. SUSTAINED WINDS AT AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT PRECLUDE A FOG THREAT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...INCREASING MOISTURE AND A WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO
THIS WEEKEND. IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
WITH WINDS NE AT 10-15 KTS AND SEAS MOSTLY 3-4 FT. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT TO 15-20 KTS, AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT
AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVER NE NC, DUE TO STRENGTHENING ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS, AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT
- SCAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THURSDAY MORNING DUE A
STRONG HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST, A
BAND OF STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
(AND POSSIBLY EASTERN SOUNDS) NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SCAS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
EVENTUALLY AS STRONG WINDS SPREAD TO THE SOUNDS AND FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE ENE AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THURSDAY, WITH WINDS ENE
15-20 KTS ELSEWHERE. STRONG ENE FLOW WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF
THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN INLAND SOUNDS BY FRIDAY AS THE
WEAK LOW OFFSHORE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. BY SATURDAY
MORNING ENE/NE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 15-20 KTS, AND THEN TO
10-15 KTS SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO 6-8 FT
THURSDAY, WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. 6 FOOT SEAS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT, AND DOWN TO NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT BY
FRIDAY, REMAINING 6-8 FT TO THE NORTH. SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND BY SATURDAY WAVES WILL BE 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS, AND 3-5 FT TO THE SOUTH. SEAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY 3-5
FT EVERYWHERE ON SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RJ
MARINE...SGK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page