284
FXUS62 KMHX 061959
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
359 PM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AND THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
MORE UNSETTLED. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO ENC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN RATES
ALOFT, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROUNDING
THE BASE. AT THE SURFACE, INVERTED TROUGHING IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING, THE
HEAVIEST OF WHICH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES CLOSER
TO THE BETTER FORCING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WITH HIGH PWATS AND
LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DUPLIN, ONSLOW, JONES, LENOIR, GREENE, AND PITT COUNTIES HAVE THE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS (1-2" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-4" POSSIBLE).
TONIGHT, IN ADDITION TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS, THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE, BUT WE MAY REMAIN MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP IT PATCHY AT BEST.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER-60S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE
MID-70S AT THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
AS OF 2:55 PM WEDNESDAY...
TOMORROW WILL BE CLOUDY AND BREEZY WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK LOW TO OUR SOUTH.
ALOFT, THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD, SENDING POCKETS OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS, COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGHING, WILL SUPPORT
CONTINUED CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PWATS WILL KEEP A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ON THE
TABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGHS MAXING
OUT IN THE LOW- TO MID-80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
- WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
- A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES AND TOTALS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT DEVELOPMENT CHANCES ARE AROUND
40%.
WE'LL ENTER A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD LATER THIS WEEK AS TROPICAL
MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG THE COAST AND AN INVERTED TROUGH AND/OR
WEAK LOW PRESSURE FORM. THE BEST CHANCES (60-70%) FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, BUT WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNINGS AS WELL THROUGH SATURDAY. LATEST TRENDS SHOW THE LOW
PASSING BY OFFSHORE OF THE OBX SATURDAY, WHICH MAY BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED, AS DRIER AIR IS FORCED
SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
TROUGHING SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE SCATTERED (35-50%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN
TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD
EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, AND THEN LOW 90S TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 2:45 PM WEDNESDAY...POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG ON THE TABLE. CURRENTLY, OBS ARE REPORTING LOW-END VFR TO
MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, SO DROPS IN VIS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. CHANCE POPS (30-40%) WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE IFR RANGE EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS, THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TOMORROW WITH IFR CIGS
POTENTIALLY LINGERING WELL INTO THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AND
CIGS WILL LIFT TO MVFR BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 AM WED...INCREASING
MOISTURE AND A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS WEEKEND. IMPROVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY SUNDAY WITH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3:45 PM WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVER NE NC DUE TO STRENGTHENING ENE WINDS OF 20-30 KTS, AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-7 FT
- SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE
INLET
- ADDITIONAL SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
NORTHERN RIVERS AND SOUNDS
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER ENC BECOMES PINCHED. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM 15-20 KT TODAY TO 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KT TOMORROW. THE
AREA OF STRONGER WINDS WILL START ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING AND EXTEND SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WELL, PEAKING TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AT 6-
7 FT NORTH OF OREGON INLET, 4-6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS, AND 3-
5 FT SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET.
GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AND ADDITIONAL SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
PAMLICO SOUND AND NORTHERN RIVERS AND SOUNDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVER NE NC, DUE TO STRENGTHENING ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KTS, AND
SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT
- SCAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES THURSDAY MORNING DUE A STRONG
HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST, A BAND OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS (AND POSSIBLY
EASTERN SOUNDS) NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE AREAS, AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EVENTUALLY AS STRONG WINDS
SPREAD TO THE SOUNDS AND FURTHER SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE ENE AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS THURSDAY, WITH WINDS ENE 15-20
KTS ELSEWHERE. STRONG ENE FLOW WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN INLAND SOUNDS BY FRIDAY AS THE WEAK LOW
OFFSHORE MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. BY SATURDAY MORNING ENE/NE
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 15-20 KTS, AND THEN TO 10-15 KTS SUNDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO 6-8 FT THURSDAY,
WITH SEAS 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. 6 FOOT SEAS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND DOWN TO NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT BY FRIDAY, REMAINING 6-
8 FT TO THE NORTH. SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND BY
SATURDAY WAVES WILL BE 4-6 FT NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS, AND 3-5 FT TO
THE SOUTH. SEAS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY 3-5 FT EVERYWHERE ON
SUNDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...OJC/SGK
MARINE...OJC/SGK
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