593
FXUS62 KMHX 071119
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
719 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO ENC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM THU...
SOGGY START TO OUR THURSDAY ACROSS EASTERN NC AS THE REGION
SITS SANDWICHED BETWEEN PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE BLUE RIDGE
MOUNTAINS, WELL DEPICTED ON GOES WV IMAGERY. NARROW BUT DEEP
CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST, LIFTING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF OUR
COAST AND RESULTING IN ONGOING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST.
PRE-DAWN...SHOWER AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING, WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FOCUSED ACROSS ONSLOW COUNTY. ACTIVITY YESTERDAY
EVENING HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 1-HOUR TOTALS OF NEARLY 3",
AND IF THIS IS REPLICATED ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS SOME
ISOLATED STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT. REST OF ENC
EXPECTED TO SEE LIGHTER, MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND, AND STEADY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, KEEPS FOG
THREAT AT BAY.
TODAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TOMORROW AS OFFSHORE
FRONT/TROUGH STUBBORNLY REMAINS WHILE CAD WEDGE ATTEMPTS TO
EXPAND EQUATOR-WARD. RESULT IS AN UNUSUALLY DREARY AND BREEZY
DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S
AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH BEST CHANCES
FOCUSED ALONG NC-24 WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST (PWATS NEAR
2") AND SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARILY LIFT. WEAKER
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MORE ROBUST RAINFALL RATES, BUT
GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST DAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA EVEN RATES OF 1-2" PER HOUR COULD
CAUSE SOME ISOLATED FLOODING CONCERNS. WPC MAINTAINS OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM THU...INLAND AREAS DRY OUT OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
HEATING, BUT SHOWER AND ISO THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AS WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS WELL TO THE EAST. BREEZY NE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT PRECLUDING A FOG RISK BUT LOWER
CLOUDS LIKELY LINGER. LOWS SIMILAR TO LAST, IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S WITH MID 70S ALONG THE WATER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THU...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH MORE SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
PRECIP COVERAGE FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON PROXIMITY TO AND STRENGTH OF A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST, AS WELL AS THE
CONDITION OF A DECAYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST (60-70%), WITH MORE QUESTIONABLE
COVERAGE (30-50%) OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH.
BY SATURDAY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE STRENGTH AND DRYNESS OF THE COOL AIR ADVECTION COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH MORE OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRIER
SOLUTION, PRECIP CHANCES ARE DECREASING FOR SATURDAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY WITH N/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA, AND
UNCERTAINTY IF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE REGION. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S, AND PEAK HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z FRI/...
AS OF 720 AM THU...EXPANSION OF LIFR AND IFR HAS FINALLY KICKED
IN EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
BRIEFLY EBBING ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS
ACROSS THE FAR INNER COASTAL PLAIN. WITH UNUSUALLY STRONG CAD
REGIME IN PLACE FOR EARLY AUGUST, TRENDED TAFS FURTHER TOWARDS
MORE PESSIMISTIC SOLUTION FOR CIGS SHOWING ONLY MVFR THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS (ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY VFR REMAINS POSSIBLE, AS CAN
HAPPEN IMMEDIATELY AFTER A PASSING RAIN SHOWER). SHOWER AND ISO
T-STORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OAJ/EWN AND OTHER TERMINALS ALONG THE CRYSTAL COAST.
IFR LIKELY TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT FRI.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FRIDAY COULD LEAD TO
EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES
MORE SCATTERED THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...
KEY MESSAGES
- SCAS SET TO GO IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET, AND SOUNDS NORTH OF PAMLICO SOUND
- NE/ENE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING IN THESE AREAS TO 20-25
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS. IN RESPONSE, SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-8+ FT.
LATEST OBS SHOW INCREASING WINDS OVER THE VA TIDEWATER, WITH A
MODEST UPTICK ALONG THE NOBX SO FAR. EXPECT STRONGER WINDS TO SOON
COME SOUTH TO NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, AND A WEAK LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CRITERIA SOUTH OF OCRACOKE. WINDS TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN NE/ENE AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS, AND WILL
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FT
SOUTH OF OCRACOKE, AND 6-8 FT TO THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND STRONG NE/ENE WINDS
ENE/NE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NORTH OF OCRACOKE, WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO
THE EAST, BUT 6 FOOT SEAS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE NE.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE E ON MONDAY AT AROUND THE SAME STRENGTH. SEAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND 2-4 FT
MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-230-231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK
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