196
FXUS62 KMHX 072003
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
403 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO ENC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 2:30 PM THURSDAY...ENC REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A WEAK
MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE WESTERN NC/SC BORDER. AT THE SURFACE, THE
CAD WEDGE IS HOLDING STEADY TO OUR WEST WHILE A LOW LINGERS
OFFSHORE WITH INVERTED TROUGHING EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. THIS
SETUP IS SUPPORTING CLOUDY SKIES, GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE
UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S.
A CONTINUOUS CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE IS STREAMING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND BEING LIFTED ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE, WHICH IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ISN'T IN GREAT
SUPPLY, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT. RAIN RATES
AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY AS YESTERDAY, BUT SOME MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING
THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, THE CONCERN FOR FLOODING IS LOWER TODAY,
BUT IF STRONGER AND/OR TRAINING CELLS OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES YESTERDAY, LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. WPC MAINTAINS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES IN A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 AND ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 264 WITH GREATEST CHANCES
NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 70.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
AS OF 3:10 PM THURSDAY...TOMORROW, THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN. WE'LL
HAVE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES, GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA,
LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR TRAINING CELLS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WPC HAS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1/4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH AREAS CLOSER TO THE
COAST BEING THE BEST CANDIDATES FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN. AMOUNTS
OF 1-2" CAN BE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
3-4" POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON
OUR PROXIMITY TO AND THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE LOW.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW- TO MID-80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 AM THU...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK
BY SATURDAY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE STRENGTH AND DRYNESS OF THE COOL AIR ADVECTION COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH MORE OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRIER
SOLUTION, PRECIP CHANCES ARE DECREASING FOR SATURDAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY WITH N/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA, AND
UNCERTAINTY IF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO LIMIT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE REGION. HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S, AND PEAK HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRI/...
AS OF 12:30 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PROLONGED SUB-VFR FLYING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
CURRENT OBS SHOW 5-15 KT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A MIXED BAG OF
FLIGHT CATS RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR. AS WE CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN
THIS CAD REGIME, THE LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CIGS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN TODAY WITH
THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOCKED IN AT MVFR.
AFTER 00Z, CIGS WILL LOWER EVEN FURTHER, WITH GREATEST CONFIDENCE OF
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 07-13Z. LIFR CIGS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT EITHER, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD CIGS <500
FT IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. WESTERN TERMINALS (ISO AND PGV)
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING CIGS THIS LOW. THESE SAME
TERMINALS WILL ALSO THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING FOG DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL LOW
STRATUS IS MUCH HIGHER THAN IMPACTFUL FOG. SIMILARLY TO TODAY,
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AFTER THE SUN COMES UP. CIGS
SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR BY MID- TO LATE-MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FRIDAY COULD LEAD TO
EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES
MORE SCATTERED THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3:30 PM THURSDAY...
- SCAS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
OCRACOKE INLET, PAMLICO SOUND, AND THE NORTHERN RIVERS AND
SOUNDS
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD
CURRENTLY, WINDS ARE NE/ENE AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT
AND 6-8 FT SEAS NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK LATER THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. 6-7 FOOT
SEAS WILL EXPAND INTO TO THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN CAPE
HATTERAS AND OCRACOKE INLET TONIGHT. TOMORROW, ELEVATED SEAS AND
NE/ENE WINDS AT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THU...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO
HAZARDOUS SEAS AND STRONG NE/ENE WINDS
ENE/NE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NORTH OF OCRACOKE, WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO
THE EAST, BUT 6 FOOT SEAS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY NORTH OF OCRACOKE.
WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE NE.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE E ON MONDAY AT AROUND THE SAME STRENGTH. SEAS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY 3-5 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND 2-4 FT
MONDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ131-135-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...OJC/SGK
MARINE...OJC/SGK
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