169
FXUS62 KMHX 080703
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
303 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL BRING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO ENC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 250 AM FRI...WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT ACROSS
EASTERN NC THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER
OVER THE CAROLINAS, BUTTRESSED BY RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD
STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST WHILE COASTAL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER OFFSHORE.
RINSE AND REPEAT FORECAST ON DECK TODAY WITH MAINLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
QUITE BREEZY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PINCHED WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE MIGRATING NORTHEAST, AND SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
PREVIOUS ADVERTISEMENTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE UPDATED
FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ODD
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ALONG COASTAL LOCALES. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER
A QUARTER INCH, BUT IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP SOME
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM FRI...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH LITTLE
CHANGED PATTERN. PRECIPITATION EBBS WITH LOSS OF HEATING TODAY
BUT NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS WITH LOWERING STRATUS THROUGH THE
MORNING. IN SPOTS WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS
LOW. LOWS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND, MID 70S ALONG THE WATER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK
BY SATURDAY DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL OFFSHORE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
HINGE ON THE STRENGTH AND DRYNESS OF THE COOL AIR ADVECTION COMING
IN FROM THE NORTH. WITH MORE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A DRIER
SOLUTION, PRECIP CHANCES ARE DECREASING FOR SATURDAY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY WITH N/NE FLOW OVER THE AREA,
AND UNCERTAINTY IF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH TO
LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES (40-60%) ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EACH
DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND PEAK HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...
AS OF 305 AM FRI...
PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TERMINALS THIS MORNING
AS REGION REMAINS STUCK UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW IN A COLD AIR
DAMMING PATTERN. EXPECTING MVFR TO HOLD STRONG THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD, WITH SOME TRANSIENT LOWERING TO IFR JUST BEFORE
DAWN. LIKE YESTERDAY, SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. PROB30 GROUPS WERE CARRIED OVER FROM PREVIOUS TAFS.
BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND 25-30 KT FOR OBX
TERMINALS. RISK OF IFR INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SAT AM AS
WINDS WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...
- SCAS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE ENE/NE AT 15-25 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
25-30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND EASTERN SOUNDS.
SEAS CONTINUE AT 6-7 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET, WITH 6 FT
POSSIBLY DOWN TO CAPE LOOKOUT NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CONSTANT TODAY, THOUGH THERE WILL BE A SHIFT TO THE NNE AS
PRESSURE PASSES BY OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT WHILE SEAS REMAIN MOSTLY 5-7 FT NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT,
AND 3-5 TO THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LINGER SATURDAY DUE TO HAZARDOUS SEAS
NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 10-20 KTS, WHILE
SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL
NE 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS BECOME GENERALLY EASTERLY
MONDAY, AND THEN SE TUESDAY AT AROUND 5-15 KTS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ131-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/MS
MARINE...SGK
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