609
FXUS62 KMHX 081832
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
232 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1:15 PM FRIDAY...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE CAROLINAS WITH UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE CAD WEDGE IS
HOLDING STEADY TO OUR WEST WHILE THE OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS WAY
NORTHEAST TRAVELING ALONG THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
THE COAST.
SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY, CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. GUSTS COULD BE UP TO
25 MPH ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NEAR 30 MPH ALONG THE OBX, WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A PLEASANT EARLY-AUGUST AFTERNOON WHEN PAIRED WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW- TO MID-80S.
PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY KEEPS LOOKING LESS AND LESS IMPRESSIVE, SO
WHILE A HEAVIER SHOWER RESULTING IN 1"+ OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE,
PIDDLY SHOWERS AND INTERMITTENT SPRINKLES SEEM LIKE THE MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO GIVEN THIS NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME.
POPS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT, RANGING FROM THE THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S. THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF PRECIP TODAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH 5-10 MPH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 1:45 PM FRIDAY...THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND IT, SUSTAINING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES FOR
ANOTHER DAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MUSHY WITH NO
FORCING FEATURES OF NOTE AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING FURTHER WAY,
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY WITH MOSTLY SPRINKLES
AND/OR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL REACH
THE LOW- TO MID-80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY WITH N/NE FLOW OVER
THE AREA, AND UNCERTAINTY IF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE DRY
ENOUGH TO LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES (40-60%) ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EACH
DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND PEAK HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SAT/...
AS OF 1 PM FRIDAY...
CURRENT OBS SHOW NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. CURRENT FLIGHT CATS ARE A MIXED BAG OF VFR
AND MVFR, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL TERMINALS MAY SEE THEIR
CIGS LIFT TO VFR AS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH ANOTHER OVERNIGHT PERIOD OF BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MVFR
STRATUS. SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
WESTERN TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
DECREASED VIS WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS, CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE MORNING
WITH MVFR CIGS POTENTIALLY HANGING AROUND UNTIL THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...
- NEW SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE AT 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. SEAS
ARE 6-7 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AND 4-6 FT TO THE SOUTH. WINDS
WILL START TO EASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH SEAS
RETREATING THROUGH THE DAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW WHERE 6 FT SEAS WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...
NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 10-20 KTS, WHILE
SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL
NE 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS BECOME GENERALLY EASTERLY
MONDAY, AND THEN SE TUESDAY AT AROUND 5-15 KTS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ131-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...OJC/SGK
MARINE...OJC/SGK
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