655
FXUS62 KMHX 082312
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
712 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 PM FRI...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF ADDING A FEW
EXTRA HOURS OF SCHC POP'S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS.
PREV DISC...A WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE
CAROLINAS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE
SURFACE, THE CAD WEDGE IS HOLDING STEADY TO OUR WEST WHILE THE
OFFSHORE LOW MAKES ITS WAY NORTHEAST TRAVELING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY DRAPED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST.
POPS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN RELEGATED TO THE COAST
AND OFFSHORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT, RANGING FROM THE THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S. THERE'S
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF PRECIP TODAY AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING MIXED OVERNIGHT WITH 5-10 MPH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 1:45 PM FRIDAY...THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TOMORROW. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND IT, SUSTAINING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND CLOUDY
SKIES FOR ANOTHER DAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING
MUSHY WITH NO FORCING FEATURES OF NOTE AND THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING FURTHER WAY, PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY
WITH MOSTLY SPRINKLES AND/OR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW- TO MID-80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN RETURNS MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY WITH N/NE FLOW OVER
THE AREA, AND UNCERTAINTY IF THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE DRY
ENOUGH TO LIMIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY AND A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
NEAR CLIMO WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE REGION.
SLIGHTLY HIGH PRECIP CHANCES (40-60%) ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS IT LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BUILD EACH
DAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND PEAK HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 710 PM FRI...STEADY NE'RLY FLOW REMAINS OVER ENC THIS
EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL
AS A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS. EXPECT CONTINUED MIX OF MVFR
AND VFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z ACROSS ENC BEFORE CEILINGS ARE
THEN FORECAST TO LOWER SLIGHTLY TO MVFR ACROSS ALL OF ENC
SOMETIME BETWEEN 06-09Z. MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY
TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING FULLY TO VFR SAT AFTERNOON.
STEADY NE'RLY FLOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A FOG
THREAT AS THE AREA REMAINS WELL MIXED. CONTINUED NE FLOW AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF PRECIP FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON IN THIS SET OF TAFS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...PRECIP COVERAGE BECOMES MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT UPTICK EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM FRIDAY...
- NEW SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE
LOOKOUT
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE AT 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT. SEAS
ARE 6-7 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET AND 4-6 FT TO THE SOUTH. WINDS
WILL START TO EASE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH SEAS
RETREATING THROUGH THE DAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE
CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW WHERE 6 FT SEAS WILL LINGER
THE LONGEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM FRI...
NNE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY TO 10-20 KTS, WHILE
SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE INLET. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL
NE 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. WINDS BECOME GENERALLY EASTERLY
MONDAY, AND THEN SE TUESDAY AT AROUND 5-15 KTS. SEAS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TUESDAY.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ196-
203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ131-230-
231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135-156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF/OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/OJC
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