132
FXUS62 KMHX 112234
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
634 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL
MEANDER CLOSER TO THE COAST AND MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 635 PM THU...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE EARLY
THIS EVENING, THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
STUBBORN TO ERODE DESPITE DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. CLUSTER OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 17 EARLY THIS EVENING, FUELED
BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TROUGHING. SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE
LATER THIS EVENING BECOMING DRY. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO ERODE, BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. THIS
COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WHICH MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BY EARLY FRI MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE INNER COASTAL PLAIN TO
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/
AS OF 3 PM THU...THE SUN WILL TRIUMPHANTLY RETURN TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN CLOSER FROM THE NORTHEAST. THOUGH BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND, AND
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO DRIER CONDITIONS INLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
- COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MID-NEXT WEEK,
IMPACTS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS TO
EASTERN NC. ALOFT, A DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF A WEAK LOW FORMING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH OFF
THE SE COAST LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THANKS TO THIS UPPER TROUGH. IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL WHAT
IMPACTS, IF ANY, ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW SHOULD IT FORM. AT THE
MINIMUM, WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A NOTCH THANKS TO THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS RESULTS IN A HIGHER DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK ONWARDS.
AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM THU...
KEY MESSAGES
- SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH VFR
RETURNING
- PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND
TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING, GRAD
IMPROVING TO VFR BY 1-2Z. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS, WITH BEST CHANCES AT PGV. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BULK OF LOW STRATUS AND LOW VSBYS
REMAINING WEST OF I-95, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR TO
CREEP EASTWARD TOWARDS PGV AND ISO. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRI MORNING, WITH SCT DIURNAL CU
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS INLAND PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM, WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 635 PM THU...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW
LATEST OBS SHOW NNE WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 3-6 FT. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE N/NNE THE REST OF THE DAY AT 15-20 KTS WITH
SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS, WHILE SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT NORTH OF
CAPE LOOKOUT AND 3-5 FT TO THE SOUTH. TONIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
WILL MOSTLY HOLD STEADY, BUT THE DIRECTION WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
TO THE NE. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER, AND NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS, WHILE ALONG
THE INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS WINDS REMAIN 10-20 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. THE AREA OF 6 FT SEAS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
TOMORROW, WITH 3-5 FT SEAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND
-HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
TROUGH STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND, WITH PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS A HIGH BUILDS INLAND. THIS INCREASES
WINDS TO AROUND 25 KTS AND SEAS TO 5-7 FT, RESULTING IN OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUANCE. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A
WEAK LOW MAY FORM OFF THE SE COAST. THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGHER
THAN NORMAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. WINDS AND WAVES ARE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND TRACK OF LOW, SHOULD IT
EVEN DEVELOP. AS A RESULT, HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AT THE END OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS INTO THIS
WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL WATERWAYS FROM OCRACOKE INLET
TO SURF CITY. DEPENDING ON TIDE FLUCTUATIONS, WATER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING PERIODS OF HIGH
TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE FOR THE HIGHER TIDES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ195-196-
199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...CQD/SGK/RJ
MARINE...CQD/SGK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page