283
FXUS62 KMHX 120616
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
216 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL
MEANDER CLOSER TO THE COAST AND MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRI...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGS NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE AREA WITH COASTAL FRONT REMAINING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH INLAND AREAS PERHAPS SEEING A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUN.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM FRI...MORE OF THE SAME AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW
ENGLAND REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH RUNNING
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL FRONT
PINNED OFFSHORE ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND WITH IT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER WITH COASTAL AREAS EXPECTING CLOUDS TO REMAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLEARING FOR INLAND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST WITH UPPER 50S INLAND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY FOR THE WEEKEND
-RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PICK UP NEXT WEEK
MOST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME KIND OF DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRYING TO FORM OFF OF THE GA/SC COAST ON SUNDAY AND
MEANDERING AROUND AIMLESSLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXACT DETAILS ON
WHETHER THIS REMAINS OFFSHORE OR MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT THE UPSHOT AT THIS TIME IS INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT LEAST FOR COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY TO
MIDWEEK. WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL INCREASE GIVEN
THE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD LIKELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES TO THE EXTREME COAST
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
LOWS EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST, MODERATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S EVERYWHERE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS AS
OF 2 AM FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND/OR GENERALLY OVERCAST SKIES
HAVE PREVENTED SUBSTANTIAL DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS EVENING. LATEST
GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES SOME CHANCES FOR PATCHY FOG FOR INLAND
TERMIANLS OF PGV/ISO AND OAJ; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO
BE HANDLING ONGOING CEILINGS WELL AND HAS BACKED OFF OF FOG/LOW
STRATUS THREAT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. GIVEN GUIDANCE
TRENDS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL BE PATCHY AND TEMPORARY IN NATURE.
THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED TAFS FOR PGV/ISO TO SHOW A TEMPO GROUP FOR
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VIS TO MVFR. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
FRIDAY, WITH BREEZY NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS AND SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AROUND 5-6 KFT.
LONG TERM /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS INLAND PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
LATEST OBS SHOW NNE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AND 3-5 FEET FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-25 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS, WHILE ALONG
THE INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS WINDS REMAIN 10-20 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS, WITH 4-6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLACKEN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN BUILD ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN ON SATURDAY BETWEEN A BUILDING
HIGH INLAND AND A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS INCREASES
WINDS TO AROUND 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SEAS TO 5-7
FT, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK LOW MAY FORM OFF THE SE COAST.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND
TRACK OF LOW, SHOULD IT EVEN DEVELOP. AS A RESULT, HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS INTO THIS
WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL WATERWAYS FROM OCRACOKE INLET
TO SURF CITY. DEPENDING ON TIDE FLUCTUATIONS, WATER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING PERIODS OF HIGH
TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE FOR THE HIGHER TIDES.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ195-196-199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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