099
FXUS62 KMHX 121129
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
729 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AN OFFSHORE FRONT WILL
MEANDER CLOSER TO THE COAST AND MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRI...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS A 1025
MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND BRINGS NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE AREA WITH COASTAL FRONT REMAINING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH INLAND AREAS PERHAPS SEEING A FEW MORE BREAKS OF SUN.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 115 AM FRI...MORE OF THE SAME AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
RUNNING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
FRONT PINNED OFFSHORE ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND WITH IT THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON CLOUD COVER WITH COASTAL AREAS EXPECTING CLOUDS TO REMAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLEARING FOR INLAND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST WITH UPPER 50S INLAND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY FOR THE WEEKEND
-RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PICK UP NEXT WEEK
MOST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME KIND OF DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRYING TO FORM OFF OF THE GA/SC COAST ON SUNDAY AND
MEANDERING AROUND AIMLESSLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXACT DETAILS ON
WHETHER THIS REMAINS OFFSHORE OR MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT THE UPSHOT AT THIS TIME IS INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT LEAST FOR COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY TO
MIDWEEK. WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL INCREASE GIVEN
THE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD LIKELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES TO THE EXTREME COAST
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
LOWS EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST, MODERATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S EVERYWHERE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR ALL TERMINALS
AS OF SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD COVER HAVE
PREVENTED DECOUPLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRECLUDING THE
THREAT OF ANY REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY WITH SCATTERED DIURNAL CU ~5 KFT.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS
ACROSS TAF SITES. SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED TONIGHT; ALBEIT WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER TO START THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN AREAS WHERE THE
WINDS BECOME CALM; HOWEVER, DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AND IS
EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE THREAT OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS, WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE ONLY INDICATING A 10-20% CHANCE FOR LOW STRATUS
FOR INLAND TERMINALS. THIS WILL BE MONITORED FOR LATER CYCLES,
BUT NO MENTION OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS OF
THIS CYCLE.
LONG TERM /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS INLAND PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
LATEST OBS SHOW NNE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS
AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS AND 3-5 FEET FOR
THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS, NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-25 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS, WHILE ALONG
THE INLAND SOUNDS AND RIVERS WINDS REMAIN 10-20 KTS WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WATERS, WITH 4-6 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WATERS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLACKEN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN BUILD ON SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN ON SATURDAY BETWEEN A BUILDING
HIGH INLAND AND A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS INCREASES
WINDS TO AROUND 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SEAS TO 5-7
FT, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK LOW MAY FORM OFF THE SE COAST.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND
TRACK OF LOW, SHOULD IT EVEN DEVELOP. AS A RESULT, HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS INTO THIS
WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL WATERWAYS FROM OCRACOKE INLET
TO SURF CITY. DEPENDING ON TIDE FLUCTUATIONS, WATER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING PERIODS OF HIGH
TIDE. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 18Z
(2 PM EDT) SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE FOR THE HIGHER TIDES. ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ195-196-
199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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