808
FXUS62 KMHX 121845
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
245 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK AN OFFSHORE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MEANDER
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
ENC.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM FRI...A PLEASANT SEPTEMBER DAY TODAY WITH WITH
TEMPS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NOTED AS A DIURNAL CU FIELD HAS OVERSPREAD
ENC THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA KEEPING THINGS DRY AND THE HUMIDITY DOWN.
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA PROMOTING
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. AMPLE
DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THE AREA FOG FREE AS WELL. THERE ARE TWO
CAVEATS TO THIS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS THAT IF SOME
MOISTURE CAN SNEAK INTO THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT, COULD SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE FORECASTED AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR, THINK THIS THREAT IS LESS THAN 20% SO KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. THE SECOND,
IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTHERN OBX SAT MORNING AS SOME OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO SNEAKING
INTO THE AREA FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OFFSHORE. ONCE
AGAIN THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURING SO KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIP FREE. OTHERWISE LOWS GET
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG
THE COAST AND OBX.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 PM FRI...UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
SC/GA COAST BY SAT EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT WITH STRONGEST
PORTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE NOTED IN SC. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT LOCATED
OFFSHORE BY SAT EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS FRONT AND LOW OFFSHORE
THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY, ALBEIT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER BUILDING IN ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. STEADY NE FLOW PERSISTS LIMITING ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE HIGHS ON SAT GET INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY FOR THE WEEKEND
-RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PICK UP NEXT WEEK
MOST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME KIND OF DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRYING TO FORM OFF OF THE GA/SC COAST ON SUNDAY AND
MEANDERING AROUND AIMLESSLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXACT DETAILS ON
WHETHER THIS REMAINS OFFSHORE OR MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT THE UPSHOT AT THIS TIME IS INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT LEAST FOR COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY TO
MIDWEEK. WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL INCREASE GIVEN
THE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD LIKELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES TO THE EXTREME COAST
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...VFR CEILINGS/VIS CURRENTLY OVERSPREAD ENC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DIURNAL CU FIELD NOTED SITTING AT ABOUT
4-5 KFT. EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASES THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE
AT SOME ADDITIONAL LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRIMARILY ALONG THE
OBX AND COAST STARTING EARLY SAT MORNING BUT CHANCES FOR SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW 20% SO OUTSIDE OF A MENTION OF A FEW
CLOUD DECK AT 2.5 KFT ACROSS EWN/OAJ KEPT CONDITIONS VFR
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. AS WE GET INTO TOMORROW ANY LOWER CLOUDS LIFT
AND WE SEE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC INTO SAT AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /12Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS INLAND PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
WIDESPREAD 15-20 KT NE'RLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS ARE
NOTED ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND ACROSS
THE PAMLICO SOUND. AS A RESULT HAVE SCA'S IN PLACE ACROSS THESE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE WHILE SEAS ALONG OUR
COASTAL WATERS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4-6 FT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS OUR WATERS EVEN FALLING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA FOR A TIME TONIGHT ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE FRONT
OFFSHORE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO SAT WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS STALLED FRONT AND TIGHTENS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOME ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCAS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD IN THESE WATERS.
15-20 KT NE'RLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR OTHER WATERS
WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THEM AT BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS.
THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
WHERE BUILDING 4-6 FT SEAS WILL RESULT IN SCA'S HERE STARTING AT
12Z SAT AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN ON SATURDAY BETWEEN A BUILDING
HIGH INLAND AND A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS INCREASES
WINDS TO AROUND 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SEAS TO 5-7
FT, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK LOW MAY FORM OFF THE SE COAST.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND
TRACK OF LOW, SHOULD IT EVEN DEVELOP. AS A RESULT, HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS INTO THIS
WEEKEND ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL WATERWAYS FROM OCRACOKE INLET
TO SURF CITY. DEPENDING ON TIDE FLUCTUATIONS, WATER LEVELS WILL
LIKELY BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING PERIODS OF HIGH
TIDE. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 18Z
(2 PM EDT) SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE FOR THE HIGHER TIDES. ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ195-196-
199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...RCF/ZC
MARINE...RCF/ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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