755
FXUS62 KMHX 122219
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
619 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK AN OFFSHORE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MEANDER
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
ENC.
NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 620 PM FRI...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR EARLY EVE UPDATE. UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS
OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA PROMOTING PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS. AMPLE DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP
THE AREA FOG FREE AS WELL. THERE ARE TWO CAVEATS TO THIS
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS THAT IF SOME MOISTURE CAN
SNEAK INTO THE LOWER LEVELS TONIGHT, COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LOW STRATUS BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT GIVEN THE FORECASTED AMOUNT OF DRY AIR, THINK THIS
THREAT IS LESS THAN 20% SO KEPT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. THE SECOND, IS A LOW END
CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SOUTHERN OBX SAT MORNING AS SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO SNEAKING INTO THE AREA
FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OFFSHORE. ONCE AGAIN THIS
APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURING SO
KEPT THE FORECAST PRECIP FREE. OTHERWISE LOWS GET INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND AND LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST
AND OBX.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 PM FRI...UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE
SC/GA COAST BY SAT EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
GRADUALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY ON SAT WITH STRONGEST
PORTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE NOTED IN SC. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO WEDGE INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG A STALLED FRONT LOCATED
OFFSHORE BY SAT EVENING. EVEN WITH THIS FRONT AND LOW OFFSHORE
THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY, ALBEIT WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER BUILDING IN ALONG THE COAST FROM THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. STEADY NE FLOW PERSISTS LIMITING ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHILE HIGHS ON SAT GET INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 115 AM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY FOR THE WEEKEND
-RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PICK UP NEXT WEEK
MOST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING SOME KIND OF DISORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRYING TO FORM OFF OF THE GA/SC COAST ON SUNDAY AND
MEANDERING AROUND AIMLESSLY THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXACT DETAILS ON
WHETHER THIS REMAINS OFFSHORE OR MOVES INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT THE UPSHOT AT THIS TIME IS INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT LEAST FOR COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY TO
MIDWEEK. WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL INCREASE GIVEN
THE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH THAT WOULD LIKELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THUNDER CHANCES TO THE EXTREME COAST
AND OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF STREAM AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM FRI...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A CHANCE AT SOME ADDITIONAL LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
PRIMARILY ALONG THE OBX AND COAST STARTING EARLY SAT MORNING BUT
CHANCES FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW 20% SO OUTSIDE OF A
MENTION OF A FEW CLOUD DECK AT 2.5 KFT ACROSS EWN/OAJ KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR OVERNIGHT AS WELL. AS WE GET INTO SAT ANY LOWER
CLOUDS LIFT AND WE SEE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ENC INTO SAT
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRIDAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS INLAND PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-25 KT WITH SEAS 3-6 FT, HIGHEST
SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. SCAS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS
OUR WATERS EVEN FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR A TIME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE FRONT OFFSHORE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER, AS WE GET INTO SAT WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
THIS STALLED FRONT AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOME
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 KTS ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD IN THESE WATERS. 15-20 KT NE'RLY WINDS WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS OUR OTHER WATERS WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP
THEM AT BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WHERE BUILDING 4-6 FT SEAS
WILL RESULT IN SCA'S HERE STARTING AT 12Z SAT AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM FRI...
KEY MESSAGES:
-GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
-HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN ON SATURDAY BETWEEN A BUILDING
HIGH INLAND AND A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS INCREASES
WINDS TO AROUND 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SEAS TO 5-7
FT, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK LOW MAY FORM OFF THE SE COAST.
THIS MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND
TRACK OF LOW, SHOULD IT EVEN DEVELOP. AS A RESULT, HIGHER THAN
NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 3 PM FRI...OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
THINKING AS HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED WATERS LEVELS ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL
WATERWAYS FROM OCRACOKE INLET TO SURF CITY. DEPENDING ON TIDE
FLUCTUATIONS, WATER LEVELS WILL AT MOST BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE. THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z (2 PM EDT) SATURDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE FOR THE HIGHER
TIDES. AFTERWARDS THE ONGOING HIGHER TIDE CYCLE WILL BE ON THE
DOWN TREND AND MINIMAL IMPACTS IF ANY ARE EXPECTED AFTER SAT
AFTERNOON. ANY IMPACTS THAT DO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ195-196-
199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-
205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...CQD/RCF/ZC
MARINE...CQD/RCF/ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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