326
FXUS62 KMHX 131136
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
736 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK AN OFFSHORE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MEANDER
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
ENC.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
AS OF 200 AM SAT...
ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF YESTERDAY WITH NORTHEAST FLOW STILL IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN NC AND THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVERHEAD WITH THE
COASTAL FRONT STILL PINNED OVER THE GULF STREAM. THE SURFACE HIGH
THAT WAS OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND WEAKEN BUT
THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT MAYBE A
SHOWER OR TWO STRAYING CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST. HIGHS WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE OBX WHERE UPPER 70S
MAY BE MORE LIKELY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM SAT...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE WILL
CREEP NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE TO EASTERN
NC AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO GET CUTOFF. AGAIN A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO COULD LINGER NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS BUT FOR THE
MOST PART CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
DIVE INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE
COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...
-DRY FOR SUNDAY
-RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH COASTAL LOW PICK UP NEXT WEEK
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF THE
NC COAST BUT THE LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY DIFFERS
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL WITH THE NAM DEVELOPING IT MORE VIGOROUSLY
THAN THE EC OR THE GFS. THE OTHER PIECE OF THE PUZZLE IS THE UPPER
TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF COMPLETELY AND REMAINING STATIONARY SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CAROLINAS. MORE SOUTHERLY AND INLAND SOLUTIONS BRING MORE
RAIN TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS TEND TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE
OFFSHORE SO WE WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW THIS EVOLVES BUT SAFE TO SAY
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING QUITE A BIT FOR MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK THIS FEATURE WILL EITHER MOVE NORTHWARD OR REMAIN STATIONARY
BUT WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL
NEW LOW COMING OFF OF THE FL COAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH LOWS EARLY IN THE WEEK IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW TO
MID 60S ALONG THE COAST, MODERATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
EVERYWHERE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES RANGING FROM
ROUGHLY 3-5 KFT HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF ENC AS OF 730 AM
SATURDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE LARGELY REMAINED VFR, HAVE NOTED
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS (MAINLY IN AND AROUND OAJ).
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT LOW CLOUDS AND ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ONLY PERSIST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE LIFTING. ONCE LOW CLOUDS
LIFT, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN STRENGTHENING WITH GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. LOW CHANCES
(~10-20% CHANCE) FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR INLAND
TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY PGV, BUT WITH ONLY LIMITED GUIDANCE
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG, WILL CARRY A VFR TAF THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS OF THIS UPDATE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS INLAND PROVIDE DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM,
WITH GUSTY N/NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS
AND PAMLICO SOUND THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
- NEW SCA HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FOR
SEAS OF 4-6 FT WITH CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD
LATEST OBS SHOW NE WINDS 15-20 KT (GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS) WITH
SEAS 5-7 FT, HIGHEST SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. SCAS REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO SOUND. WINDS HAVE
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM FRIDAY, EVEN FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA
AT TIMES TONIGHT ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SURFACE
FRONT OFFSHORE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOME ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO AGAIN INCREASE
TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS ACROSS THE PAMLICO
SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SCAS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD IN THESE
WATERS. 15-20 KT NE'RLY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS OUR OTHER
WATERS WHICH SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THEM AT BELOW HEADLINE
THRESHOLDS. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS WHERE WAVES HAVE GRADUALLY BUILT TO 4-6 FEET AS OF 2 AM
SATURDAY, YIELDING SCA CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
- HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARINE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AGAIN ON SATURDAY BETWEEN A BUILDING
HIGH INLAND AND A STRENGTHENING TROUGH OFFSHORE. THIS INCREASES
WINDS TO AROUND 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS AND SEAS TO 5-7
FT, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK LOW MAY FORM OFF THE SE COAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE STRENGTH,
LOCATION, AND TRACK OF THE LOW, SHOULD IT EVEN DEVELOP. SOME
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE LOW WILL BE WEAKER, WHICH MAY ALLOW SCA
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WORK WEEK, WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS DEPICT A STRONGER LOW THAT MAY
YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. AS A RESULT,
HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE WINDS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED WATERS
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST AND TIDAL WATERWAYS FROM OCRACOKE INLET
TO SURF CITY. DEPENDING ON TIDE FLUCTUATIONS, WATER LEVELS WILL
AT MOST BE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL DURING PERIODS OF HIGH
TIDE. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z (2
PM EDT) SATURDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
COASTLINE FOR THE HIGHER TIDES. AFTERWARDS THE ONGOING HIGHER
TIDE CYCLE WILL BE ON THE DOWN TREND AND MINIMAL IMPACTS IF ANY
ARE EXPECTED AFTER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY IMPACTS THAT DO
OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR.
MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ195-196-199.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ203-205.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RTE
SHORT TERM...RTE
LONG TERM...RTE
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX
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